Regional Policy: Latest Articles

Diminishing Returns for Rice in Israel

Articles — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:39:00 -0400

US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice just completed her seventh visit to Israel-Palestine since the Annapolis conference nine months ago. You remember Annapolis, when after almost seven years of neglect the Bush administration committed itself to securing an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal during its last year in office and to dramatically improving the day-to-day situation on the ground.

Displaying admirable consistency and tenacity, albeit a disconnect from reality, Rice reiterated that goal during her visit this week. The Israeli and Palestinian leaders she met with were polite in their encouragement. Yet even among those who desire a deal, most consider the clock to have run out on this administration. Israeli foreign… more

There Are Better Options

Articles — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 10:32:00 -0400

Israel's response to the Iranian challenge has been out of synch with developing realities for some time. Recently though, it has become dangerously counter-productive, anchored as it is in denial. As Israel intensifies its role as threatener-in-chief, and clings to a "more sticks, bigger sticks" line, events all around are moving on. The supposed logic behind Israel's escalating threats, suggesting it is ready to go it alone militarily, is threefold. It pressures Iran, thereby increasing international leverage in negotiations; a nervous world feels compelled to up sanctions and deliver results; and the path is smoothed to international acceptance of possible future Israeli action.… more

Civil War in Gaza Isn’t in Israel’s Interests

Articles — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 07:57:00 -0400

When a bomb exploded in the Shaja’iyyah district of Gaza last month, killing four Hamas operatives and a 5-year-old girl, Hamas blamed Fatah, and moved violently against its remaining Gazan enclaves. Fatah forces then pursued retribution against Hamas in the West Bank. Another round of intra-Palestinian conflict and bloodletting ensued, with the leading pro-Fatah family in Gaza, the Hilles clan, fleeing to Israel in the hopes of making it to the West Bank.

Think that Palestinians nearing civil war and the ongoing collapse of a central Palestinian governing entity serves Israel’s security interests? Think again.

Those who are taking comfort in the televised images of Palestinian-on-Palestinian violence or in the “propaganda coup”… more

Opportunity Knocked

Articles — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:36:00 -0400

There is an opportunity to hammer out a grand compromise with Iran—one that would even address its nuclear program. But the Bush administration seems determined to prevent talks that could advance vital U.S. interests.

Much of the media coverage of last Saturday’s nuclear talks between representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany (the so-called P-5+1, including the United States), and the secretary general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, reflected a disturbing historical amnesia about previous U.S.-Iranian negotiations. Indeed, listening to most media outlets, one gets the impression that the Islamic Republic is nothing but a rogue regime committed to the… more

Bringing Closure to Israel and Lebanon

Articles — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 05:44:00 -0400

It's one of those days when a lot of people are probably looking at the Middle East and scratching their heads. The Israelis have released Samir Qantar, who committed a terrible atrocity, along with four others who are defined as terrorists to Hizbullah - which Israel defines as a terrorist organisation. And all of this in exchange for two dead bodies. What's going on?

I suggest there are three things worth looking at here.

The first is that this brings some kind of closure to the Lebanon war fought over a period of 33 days exactly two years ago. According to the Hizbullah narrative, the raid across the… more

Finding a Silver Lining In the Iraq Cloud

Articles — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:16:00 -0400

If there is ever a TV series about the American adventure in Iraq it might be called "Unintended Consequences Gone Wild." The war strategically weakened the United States, strengthened Iran, undermined democracy promotion, and gave Al Qaeda and the Taliban time to regroup - and that would just be season one. But the latest episode, the unintended Iraqi consensus opposing America's secretive quest to complete a Status of Forces Agreement and a Strategic Framework Agreement by the end of July, may turn out to be good news for both the United States and Iraq.

Even as short-term improvements have been registered in the security situation, the internal politics of… more

Nuclear Fallout

Ron Tang — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 10:01:00 -0400

Shaul Mofaz is Israel's minister of transportation. He formerly served as the IDF chief of staff and as defence minister. He is hardly considered to have been one of the greats to occupy either post. Another position he currently holds is that of minister in charge of the strategic dialogue with the US. The very existence of this position is emblematic of the dysfunctionality of Israel's political system right now (ordinarily the role would be part of the mandate of the defence or foreign minister, but was somehow attached to the transportation minister's portfolio as a sinecure handed… more

Removing the Zionist Straitjacket

Ron Tang — Fri, 30 May 2008 09:22:00 -0400

Earlier this month Prof. Shlomo Avineri argued on these pages that the real Palestinian Nakba (catastrophe) did not occur at the hands of Israel in 1948, or even after 1967, but rather was a result of "the inability of the Palestinian national movement to create the political and social institutional framework that is the necessary foundation for nation-building."

Avineri's piece ("The real Nakba," May 9) is important: It recognizes the reality of Palestinian national consciousness and the legitimacy of their claim to statehood. He should be praised for correcting the tendency to depict the Palestinians as history's victims, thereby ignoring their… more

Road Map To Nowhere

Ron Tang — Wed, 14 May 2008 10:55:00 -0400

This is one of those times of maximum mismatch between the optimistic rhetoric of peace process declarations and expectations and the gloomy reality of daily experience and prospects on the ground.

The Annapolis architect, President George W. Bush, is back in the Middle East, still declaring the worthy goal of peace in '08. But the fundamentally flawed logic of the process initiated last year is increasingly transparent.

The economic, social and health conditions of Gazans collapse further as the siege continues; rockets fall on southern Israel; settlements keep growing, and, not surprisingly, Palestinians and Israelis scoff at the peace merry-go-round.

The centerpiece of… more

Israel At 60

Ron Tang — Fri, 09 May 2008 08:53:00 -0400

I don't often, or ever really, write about my own relationship to Israel or how I ended up there, but I'll make an exception for its 60th anniversary.

My relationship with Israel started at the time of the ‘good' Iraq war. You remember, the Iraq war whose ambitions were limited to ensuring continued access to Kuwaiti oil -- not the contemporary trifecta effort to own the oil, change the regime, and transform the region.

In January of 1991 I was working in London as the political officer of the Union of Jewish Students, arguing Israel's case on campus (and attempting to do… more

A Middle East Report Card

Ron Tang — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 06:52:00 -0400

Condoleezza Rice has just completed her 14th Middle East visit in 15 months and her third since the Annapolis Conference.

The Annapolis effort is scheduled to last one year, wrapping up at the end of the Bush term, but with four months gone, the scorecard makes for predictably depressing reading. Economic conditions and freedom of movement in the West Bank have, if anything, deteriorated -- settlements are expanding, not a single outpost has been dismantled, and Israelis and Palestinians are less secure. Leaders on both sides -- Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas -- have been kept alive politically (and that admittedly… more

'A More Private Occupation'

Ron Tang — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 08:15:00 -0400

Imagine Philippe Starck and Daniel Libeskind are commissioned to design an Israeli checkpoint in the West Bank -- imposing exterior, breezy interior, daring splashes of light and color. Sometimes it seems this is the image being promoted by the newly privatized and civilianized checkpoints and crossings popping up in the territories. When it comes to dress codes, the drab olive of military fatigues is decidedly passe, having been replaced by the crisp uniforms of private security contractors.

A half-dozen such terminals are operated by private companies -- from Al-Jalama near Jenin, to Sha'ar Ephraim near Tul Karm, from Reihan to Tarqumiya.… more

A Fresh Look At Settlement Expansion

Ron Tang — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 15:08:00 -0400

A series of new data and new decisions have been dribbling out of Israel recently on settlement expansion. The tarmac had barely cooled off from secretary of state Condoleezza Rice's departure earlier in the week and the Israeli government was already announcing plans to build 600 new apartments in the Givat Ze'ev settlement and the approval of 800 new units in Betar Illit. This news came in the wake of new construction plans for Har Homa in East Jerusalem and rumours that Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak was in negotiations with the settler leadership to simply relocate (rather than dismantle)… more

The Next President And the Middle East

Ron Tang — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 07:27:00 -0400

Listen carefully when a new president is inaugurated next January for the sigh of relief coming from most of those Middle Easterners whom President Bush embraced as allies. Conversely, Bush’s rivals in the region are likely to tune in to the occasion in a disgruntled mood. For them the Bush years have been good for business. The menu of grievances on which they’ve fed has become a veritable feast. Opposition to American designs in the region -- deployed with different emphases and with different goals by al-Qaeda, Iran, Hamas, Syria, and Hezbollah, to name but a few -- has been… more

Defining Scandal

Ron Tang — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 22:00:00 -0400

This was supposed to be the year in which Benjamin Netanyahu was re-crowned King of Israel -- he looked untouchable in the polls, and sitting prime minister Ehud Olmert's days looked numbered. That might still happen, but an inauspicious start to 2008 turned downright ugly this past weekend for Netanyahu when a new political scandal broke -- with him at its epicentre. Israel TV Channel 10's Raviv Druker broke the story -- not only of profligacy and embarrassing personal indulgence -- but also a violation of the parliamentary ethical code and perhaps the illegal receipt of gifts.

In August… more

Guantanamo: The Bigger Picture

Ron Tang — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 04:50:00 -0400

The U.S. base at Guantanamo has been called many things. The "gulag of our time" (Amnesty International General Secretary Irene Khan, May 2005). "The key strategic intelligence platform in the war on terror" (Charles Stimson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Detainee Affairs, January 2007). The "legal equivalent of outer space" (unnamed Administration official). The right place for "the worst of a very bad lot" (Vice President Dick Cheney, January 2002) and for the "most dangerous, best trained, vicious killers on the face of the earth" (former Defense Secretary Donald… more

Reconstituting Rice

Ron Tang — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Why have two of Washington's more noted journalists, The New York Times' Elizabeth Bumiller, and Glenn Kessler from the Washington Post, both come out with books about Condoleezza Rice in recent months? Certainly her story is a unique and appealing one: Rice may be both the second woman and second African-American to fill the position of secretary of state, but she is very much the first person to be both. Unusually for a Bushie, she maintains high approval ratings, and she may have a political future. And she certainly cuts a more human figure than her colleagues. But the real… more

Failure To Launch

Ron Tang — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice's latest Middle East trip has drawn to a close, and she is now heading back to Washington via Brussels. On being told by a reporter at a press conference in Ramallah that this was her 13th visit, and asked whether she was bringing anything new, Condi responded that 13 is not a lucky number, so maybe she needed to come back again.

Maybe the latest round of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, and the lack of progress in advancing either peace talks or improvements to daily life is just a case… more

Castro's Exit is a Giant Opportunity

Ron Tang — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 00:00:00 -0500

OK, which candidate is prepared to break U.S.-Cuba relations out of the anachronistic Cold War cocoon and initiate a new course?

Barack Obama has sketched out the initial steps of a changed direction already, and Hillary Clinton in response said she saw no reason to change from the Bush administration's course until a triggering event appeared.

When Fidel Castro hinted in December he would step down, I asked the Clinton campaign whether it would change course, and was told if something significant occurred to justify a rethink, then the Clinton team would do a "full policy review." This is significant.

The end of… more

Historic Opportunity

Ron Tang — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Fidel Castro is stepping down -- but will anything in US policy change?

American foreign policy is full of missed moments -- the most recent and disturbing of which was in April 2003 when Iran made a normalisation offer to the US that included putting on the table recognition of Israel, cutting its support of Hamas and Hezbollah's terrorist activities, and its nuclear programme in exchange for some gestures from the US, the most important of which was ending our regime change ambitions against Iran's incumbent leadership. Had America initiated discussions with Iran when this incredible offer was made, we may… more