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. . . By Holtz-Eakin's estimate, growth in entitlement programs--primarily Medicare and Medicaid--will drive federal spending from today's 20 percent of GDP to almost 26 percent in 2030. Such a large public sector, Holtz-Eakin argues in the paper, would impair economic growth and flexibility, and endanger America's limited-government heritage. The challenge, then, is to stabilize the country's finances at around 20 percent of GDP in 2030. . .

. . . His reform proposals are all debatable, but what is significant about Holtz-Eakin's paper is that it gets the conceptual framework right. "The far more important goal is 2030 rather than five years from now," says Maya MacGuineas, who directs the fiscal policy program at the New America Foundation.

. . . If he made long-term solvency a predominant theme of his candidacy, instead of treating it as a footnote to tax cuts, McCain could touch all of those bases, a nice trick. "There's a chance here for a really dramatic next chapter," MacGuineas says, "a whole reframing of what the challenges are." . . .