Having belatedly realized that Cuba's communist regime is not doomed to collapse simply with the passing from power of Fidel Castro, the Bush administration is launching new pro-democracy initiatives with the decades-old U.S. hope of fostering a shift from communism.

But little suggests that the road to a democratic Cuba is suddenly open to new U.S. measures - or to renewed American pressure. Fidel's brother Raul has consolidated control of the Cuban system since the elder Castro relinquished power for health reasons in July 2006. And with Cuba's economy growing and the country benefiting from expanded ties to friendly governments such as Venezuela and China, new U.S. efforts are unlikely to have much impact, most Cuba experts believe.

The administration "could have come up with something different to respond to the changes that have taken place in Cuba, but instead they are acting as if the transition to Raul Castro hasn't happened," says Steven Clemons, director of the American strategy program at the New America Foundation in Washington. "What this does is keep U.S.-Cuba relations in a cold-war cocoon at least a while longer." ...

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