OLBERMANN: In 2003, when Mr. Bush still exhibited thorough optimism about Iraq, he spoke quite openly about what would come next...But the logic has since become inverted. Back then American success in Iraq was supposed to lead to success in Iran. Now we are told that we must succeed with Iran to ensure our success in Iraq. But even standing on its figurative head, the administration`s conclusion remains inviolate; something must be done about Iran.

Let`s bring in the National Security Council`s former senior director for Middle East affairs, Flynt Leverett, now a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. Great thanks, once again, for your time sir.

FLYNT LEVERETT, NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION: Thanks for having me back.

OLBERMANN: The accusations are well known, but does it shock you to hear just how close the president`s rhetoric about Iran is compared to his past rhetoric about Iraq?

LEVERETT: No, because in many ways the rhetoric in the run-up to the war on Iraq worked. The president singled Iraq out to justify military action there on three particular issues, Iraq`s links to terrorism, including what were alleged to be direct links to al Qaeda, its weapons of mass destruction capabilities, and it`s regional meddling, that was making the region unstable.

And if you look at the rhetoric on Iran right now, Iran is being singled out for basically the same things, its links to terrorism. The president basically, in the State of the Union Address, equated Iran as a Shia version of al Qaeda. Of course, there is the nuclear issue and concern about the Iran`s weapons of mass destruction ambitions. And then the president is accusing Iran of regional meddling, being the principal source of instability in the region, much as he did with Iraq in the run up to the invasion of Iraq in 2005.

OLBERMANN: Focusing in about the Karabala raid, attackers disguised as Americans. They were wielding American-style M-4`s and they had stun grenades that were used only by U.S. forces. Reportedly they were able to monitor Iraqi communications. They got through Iraqi checkpoints. Obviously that`s Iran, right?

LEVERETT: Well, I think it`s very clear that Iraqi militias and Sunni insurgents in Iraq have been getting better. They have had the benefit of daily live ammunition training, courtesy of the U.S. military, the best military in the world. And it is not surprising, I think, that they would be getting better, more capable, more sophisticated in their tactics. That does not prove that Iran was responsible for this raid.

Now, Iran has certainly done bad things in the region. It has been a bad actor. It`s possible they`re linked to this raid, but there has been no hard evidence put on the table of that. I think it`s important to keep in mind, though, that if at some point there is some hard evidence that linked Iran to this, keep in mind the context. The president of the United States has accused Iran of fomenting attacks on U.S. forces. He is building up American military forces there, and he`s ordered the capture or killing of any Iranian that is found in Iraq.

And there are five Iranians who were detained out of a diplomatic compound in Irbil last week. There is a kind of symmetry between five Iranians detained by U.S. forces and the five American soldiers who were unfortunately killed in this raid.

OLBERMANN: Is there anything, in sum, to the president`s premise that it is Iran attacking us by proxy in Iraq, and if so, how does this jibe with the facts that 99 percent of all attacks on U.S. troops occur in areas controlled by the Sunni militias, which are largely funded not by Iran, which is Shia, but private Sunnis in U.S. allied states like Saudi Arabia?

LEVERETT: Well, that`s right; the Sunni insurgents have been a much bigger problem, in terms of inflicting casualties on U.S. forces than the Shia militias have been. But at this point I don`t think this is really about a detached analysis of on the ground reality in Iraq. It is about making a case to the American people and to the international community on how bad Iran is, so that the conditions are there, should the president take a decision down the road to use military force against Iran. He has prepared the way, rhetorically...

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