After an unexpected show of strength at a rally on Monday by supporters of the Palestinian Fatah movement in the Gaza Strip, rival Hamas forces – which control the area – moved quickly to arrest hundreds of Fatah activists, increasing the likelihood of more conflict in the territories.

The Palestinian split into two camps, a Fatah willing to compromise with Israel and a Hamas still insistent on refusing to recognize the right of the Jewish state to exist, and the newly heightened tensions between the camps have further clouded the outlook for peace. ...

On his blog Prospectsforpeace.com, former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy says that Israel's politicians are also weakened by divisions, limiting the prospects for concessions from their side, though he also argues they could make some concessions if the country's prime minister is willing to take some political heat.

A major reason for the shifting of emphasis away from core permanent status issues has been the lack of political wiggle room afforded to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert by the coalition math. Parties within Olmert's governing coalition, as well as members of his own Kadima party, declared their opposition to any far reaching understandings with the Palestinians on territory, Jerusalem…etc. Nevertheless, whether before Annapolis in a last ditch effort to make the gathering something more than a "photo-up" or post-Annapolis as negotiations move forward, the core issues will eventually have to be addressed.

Bottom line, should he be so inclined, Olmert has a majority to pursue negotiations and for many key Roadmap deliverables; and yes there would be the political knocks, bumps and crises that can be safely avoided by doing nothing. None of those crises will be as damaging to Olmert politically or to Israel strategically as the folly of last summer's Lebanon war. ...

For the complete article, please visit The Christain Science Monitor website.