WASHINGTON - Before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Ken Bacon was a lonely voice calling on White House policymakers to consider the possibility of a major refugee crisis as Iraqis sought sanctuary from the war.

For three years, Bacon, president of Refugees International, a Washington-based advocacy group, was proved wrong. In fact, about 300,000 Iraqi refugees returned home after the regime of Saddam Hussein was toppled.

The tide began to reverse, however, after Sunni insurgents bombed a Shiite holy shrine 17 months ago in the city of Samarra, triggering a rise in sectarian bloodshed and complicating U.S. efforts in Iraq.

Since then, an estimated 2 million Iraqis have fled the country, and 800,000 more have left their homes for other parts of Iraq...

Most of the 2 million Iraqis who have left the country are in neighboring Jordan or Syria, countries whose social, health and security services threaten to be overwhelmed by the surge in Iraqis.

"Jordan is in a very fragile situation right now," said Nir Rosen, an Iraq expert with the New America Foundation, a Washington research and advocacy outfit...

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