Flynt Leverett: All Publications, Events and Press

Wrong on Russia

Articles — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 11:00:00 -0400

In the wake of Russia’s military incursion into Georgia, too many current, former, and aspiring U.S. officials are caricaturing the Russian state that was shaped and is still guided by Vladimir Putin as a revisionist aggressor. For Robert Kagan, John McCain’s neoconservative foreign policy adviser, as well as for long-time Democratic foreign policy hands Richard Holbrooke and Ronald Asmus, Russia’s actions in Georgia are comparable to Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. For Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Russia’s actions are more reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968.

But, in reality, today’s Russia is not a resurgent imperial power. In the post-Cold War period, it was Washington, not Moscow, which… more

Flynt Leverett on MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Olbermann | 'Another War for Bush to Consider'

Communications — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 08:02:00 -0400

New America in the News:
Former Senior Director at the National Security Council and current Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Flynt Leverett, discusses how President Bush should handle Russia's invasion of Georgia, a U.S. ally. LINK to video

Flynt Leverett in the Washington Post | 'Iran Seeks Details on Nuclear Offer'

Communications — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 11:10:00 -0400

New America in the News:
"I don't see any reason to believe that the Russians and the Chinese are any more willing today to support really tougher sanctions against Iran," said Flynt Leverett, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and former Bush National Security Council staffer. LINK to Article

What Would Nixon Do on U.S.-Cuba Relations?

Communications — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 03:30:00 -0400

A New America Event
07/28/2008 - 12:30pm

Monday’s event brought together Dimitri Simes of the Nixon Center, Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson -- former chief of staff to General Colonel Powell -- and New America’s Flynt Leverett and Steve Clemons to discuss the future of Cuba policy. An MP3 audio recording can be downloaded below, while video is available at right.

Dimitri Simes started the event lightly, speaking to Nixon’s love of Cuban cigars -- which he would enjoy quietly in the residence offered his closest guests, Simes recounted -- but quickly moved to heavier issues, offering that “Nixon was very angry with the way the United States was allowing key foreign policy decisions to be made by single interest groups. He thought it was very unfortunate that the U.S. only had a stick, and could not offer any kind of carrot.” Simes also addressed a recent statement made in Moscow, issued by a former Air Force Chief of Staff, regarding the stationing of strategic bombers in Cuba. The move, he conjectured, was a feeler, aimed garnering a political response from both Cuba and local power hubs, and suggested the move -- even if unlikely to advance -- should remind the U.S. of the remaining importance of Cuba in geo-strategic terms.

Julia Sweig suggested two steps the next administration might take to advance relations with Havana: first, legalize thirteen categories of licensed travel between the two states, thus allowing “American citizens under the rubric of churches, educational institutions, and civil society organizations to travel to Cuba.” Such a change, she suggests, would provide an “opportunity to get to know one another again, Cubans and American, to get into one another’s rolodexes. To know what makes the each other tick.” Second, she suggested the next administration make it clear to the new Congress that it will not veto any legislation that peals back the embargo. Helms Burton, she explained, left power to move against the embargo squarely in the hands of congress. Though difficult to repeal the legislation in its entirety, she thinks the measures, if disaggregated, might move faster than expected now that “the Cuban American community is no longer a single voting block” in her view.

She also stressed the critical role Naval Base Guantanamo Bay has played as a symbol to Latin America, and the broader world, of failed U.S. policy. She advocated not only closing the detention center, but also the repatriation of the base to Cuban sovereignty as a possible important and symbolic step along the path to reconciliation.

Flynt Leverett cast his remarks in strategic terms. He spoke to the rise of a new wave of the political left in Latin America, led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and suggested the best way to undermine such an advance lie in engagement with Havana
Leverett perhaps captured the hue of discussion best offering: “This is a topic that is not just important in terms of us interest in Latin America, the issue of Cuba policy raises one of the most fundamental questions we need to address about foreign policy… should American foreign policy be set on the basis of American national interests….or will foreign policy be set on the basis of something else. That something else is most likely to be the agenda of some domestic interest group or constituency.”

Leverett also spoke to the issue of Cuba’s recently discovered Hydro Carbon reserves, suggesting that every major energy corporation headquartered outside the U.S. has engaged with Cuban government in regard to the reserves. Leverett surmised, “If you take energy security seriously, this posture simply makes no sense.”

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson offered two problems with the history of U.S. Cuban relations. First, he stated, we must not have a “moron” in the White House, and second, Cuba policy must be made an issue worthy of attention. Cuba, he argued, has simply been too low of a foreign policy priority for President’s in recent years. He suggested that the U.S. take a much more serious look at foreign policy in the western hemisphere at large, starting with Cuba, an arena in which gains will resonate loudly. “We need a substantiate foreign policy for the western hemisphere, and the way to do that is with a full rapprochement with Cuba.” Wilkerson also stated that Cuba, in both the war on terror and anti-narcotics efforts, has played a more helpful role than any other nation in Latin America. An assistance we, without surprise, have failed reciprocate.

-Brian Till, Research Associate for the American Strategy Program

This event was co-hosted by the New America Foundation and The Nixon Center.

Opportunity Knocked

Articles — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:36:00 -0400

There is an opportunity to hammer out a grand compromise with Iran—one that would even address its nuclear program. But the Bush administration seems determined to prevent talks that could advance vital U.S. interests.

Much of the media coverage of last Saturday’s nuclear talks between representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany (the so-called P-5+1, including the United States), and the secretary general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, reflected a disturbing historical amnesia about previous U.S.-Iranian negotiations. Indeed, listening to most media outlets, one gets the impression that the Islamic Republic is nothing but a rogue regime committed to the… more

Flynt Leverett on P5+1 Talks with Iran

Communications — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:10:00 -0400

Following the P5+1 talks with Iran this past Saturday that included U.S. Under Secretary of State William Burns, Flynt Leverett sat down to analyze the meaning and potential of EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana's "freeze-for-freeze" formula given recent U.S. diplomatic overtures. Flynt Leverett is a senior fellow and director of the Geopolitics of Energy Initiative at the New America Foundation. Previously he served as senior director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, Middle East expert on the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff, and senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.

To watch the video,… more

Flynt Leverett in the Washington Post | 'U.S. Talks With Iran Exemplify Bush's New Approaches'

Communications — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 08:55:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...Former White House Middle East director Flynt Leverett, who has criticized the administration for being too hawkish, said the moves on Iraq, Iran and North Korea were signs of "tactical desperation," adding: "It's a recognition that if they don't make these moves, they'll be left with nothing..." LINK

Flynt Leverett in Policy Innovations | 'The Rise of the Rest'

Communications — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:04:00 -0400

New America in the News:

FLYNT LEVERETT: ..."As Americans, I think we also need to face up to the flip side of the rise of the rest, which is to some degree a decline in American standing and influence in various international arenas. I would argue that the United States is in an historically unprecedented condition. It emerged from the Cold War as this unquestioned global hegemon.

Now, not even two decades after the end of the Cold War, we have a situation in which the military dimension of American hegemony seems unassailable. If you look out, even with the most optimistic projections of the growth in Chinese, Indian, perhaps Russian, military capabilities, I would argue that the United States is going to have a unique capacity to project large amounts of military power around the world for at least the next two decades, and quite possibly longer than that. So the military dimension of American hegemony seems to be pretty intact.

There are, as always, limits to what military power can do for a hegemon. We seem periodically to need to remind ourselves of that. Perhaps the Iraq war is one such exercise... "

LINK to transcript and LINK to video

Flynt Leverett in The Australian | 'Nirvana Out of American Reach'

Communications — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 09:23:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The energy, financial and political woes that grip the US signal a decisive shift in world power, mocking the liberal delusion that Barack Obama or John McCain can return American prestige and power to its pre-Bush year 2000 nirvana. There is no such nirvana. There is instead a new reality: the greatest transfer of income in human history, away from energy importers such as the US to energy exporters; the rise of a new breed of wealthy autocracies that cripple US hopes of dominating the global system; and demands on the US to make fresh compromises in a world where power is rapidly being diversified....

Flynt Leverett, former director of Middle East Affairs on the National Security Council, says: "The international economic position of the United States has deteriorated substantially since the new millennium. The big trends in global finance and energy markets are working against the US. There isn't any solving this problem in terms of making it go away. These are ongoing realities. The energy picture is not going to change: it is here to stay..." LINK

Flynt Leverett in the National Interest | 'Does the G8 Still Matter?'

Communications — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:17:00 -0400

New America in the News:

...From July 7–9, as the Nixon Center’s executive director and moderator of the discussion Paul Saunders said, the world’s heaviest hitters will meet to discuss the most-pressing problems. Former ambassador to Germany and current managing director at McLarty Associates, Richard Burt, and Flynt Leverett of the New America Foundation met at the Nixon Center on Wednesday to look at an even-more-basic issue: whether the G8 still matters. Or, as Ambassador Burt asked, if it ever did.

The G8’s purview is simply too broad to be effective, Burt argued. The group should return to its roots, economics, if it hopes to retain relevancy in today’s world of global markets and interconnected states. Leverrett agreed, but put the future of the group in even-starker terms: developing a strategy of global economic governance is “imperative” for the G8’s survival, and U.S. interests in a rapidly changing world. Failing to adapt, he said, is simply an “abrogation of responsibility...” LINK to article and LINK to C-SPAN video

Fynt Leverett on C-SPAN | the Nixon Center Panel Discussion on Relevance of G8 Summit

Communications — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:06:00 -0400

New America in the News:
As the host of the 2008 G8 Summit, Japan has established an agenda focused on non-proliferation, the international economy, climate change, and development. With changes in the global distribution of wealth and influence over the last thirty years, the Nixon Center hosts a panel discussion on the relevance of the G8 Summit. Flynt Leverett, Senior Fellow and the Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Initiative at the New America Foundation, serves as a co-panelist. LINK to video

Flynt Leverett in Al Jazeera | 'Mission Doable: Israeli Minister Mulls Plans For Military Strike in Iran'

Communications — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 13:42:00 -0400

New America in the News:
..."Israel's main ally, the United States, is still at odds over what constitutes the right strategy on Iran. The Bush administration is divided. Vice President Dick Cheney would still want an attack, says Flynt Leverett, a former official in the US State Department and now a Middle East expert with the New America Foundation. However he believes the secretary of state favors a different approach: Condi Rice is buying time to get the president through his term..." LINK

US Economic Decline Top Issue

Ron Tang — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 04:35:00 -0400

The most important long-term strategic challenge facing the Gulf Cooperation Council is not the threat of Islamic extremism or the rise of Iran -- it is the continuing economic decline of the United States.

Ever since 1980, when Jimmy Carter, then president, first publicly committed the United States to use military force to defend the free flow of oil from the Middle East, the United States has been the region’s unquestioned hegemon. And ever since the GCC was formed in 1981, its members have relied on the United States as the ultimate guarantor of their security.

To support the US security umbrella,… more

Fynt Leverett on Newshour with Jim Lehrer | 'Serious Concerns on Iran's Nuclear Ability'

Communications — Tue, 27 May 2008 05:55:00 -0400

New America in the News:

. . .First of all, how would you describe the current policy of the Bush administration toward Iran? And given this new report, everything else you know, Flynt Leverett, is this policy working?

FLYNT LEVERETT, The New America Foundation: I would describe current U.S. policy toward Iran as consisting of three elements: one, diplomatic isolation of Iran; second, economic pressure on Iran, through both unilateral and multilateral sanctions; and, third, the encouragement of political forces inside and outside Iran who want to undermine the current political order, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And is that policy working?

FLYNT LEVERETT: No, I don't think it is working to achieve any important U.S. objectives in the region...LINK to full transcript, audio, and video

Reports from Lebanon and Video Coverage of the New America Foundation's "Briefing on Beirut"

Communications — Wed, 14 May 2008 11:55:00 -0400

On Tuesday, May 13, the New America Foundation hosted an event featuring two journalists reporting from Beirut on the unfolding security and political crisis in Lebanon. Rami Khouri, editor-at-large of the Daily Star, discussed the large scale political and social trends have led to the current crisis. Nir Rosen, a fellow at the New America Foundation, reported live from the streets of Beirut on the tactical gains made by Hezbollah as well as its broader strategy. They were joined by a panel discussion featuring Daniel Levy, former Israeli negotiator and advisor to the Israeli prime minister's office, and current director… more

Flynt Leverett and Nir Rosen in IPS News | "Lebanon Crisis Shows Hues of Iraq"

Communications — Wed, 14 May 2008 10:55:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Full article

. . . "This is more and more becoming a Sunni-Shi'a conflict. It really does feel like Iraq," said journalist Nir Rosen in a conference call with analysts and reporters at the New American Foundation.

"Sunni militias, backed by the Future Movement, formed over the last year, and have been a complete failure, perhaps because they were fighting for money. They just disappeared and caused a great sense of betrayal and shock among Sunnis," said Rosen, adding that the perceived victimisation of Sunnis had instigated more radical circles in Tripoli to fight against the "apostate Shi'a", that they appeared "eager to start this battle", according to Rosen. . .

Rosen, who is currently in Beirut and accompanied Shi'a Amal fighters as they battled on the streets, described Hezbollah fighters acting "hand in hand" with the army on the commercial strip of Hamra Street in West Beirut. Most of the targets captured by Hezbollah and their allies were subsequently turned over to the army. "They are not trying to change the demographic balance in Beirut, it is to make a show of force to let rival militias know [Hezbollah] could have a real political coup," said Rosen. "Hezbollah's main concern is to keep weapons; it doesn't have much interest in running things in Lebanon." . . .

"Lebanon, in the post Hariri period, is not in any really meaningful sense a democracy. It is a political order rooted in the distribution of political assets along sectarian lines, and the patterns of distribution are way out of whack with demographic reality, particularly with regard to the Shi'a," said Flynt Leverett, once a senior specialist on the Middle East for the Bush administration's National Security Council.

Leverett described the Lebanese political arena as a "sideshow" when compared to the Bush administration's real strategic interests in the region. Washington champions hollow talk about "democracy" as a bulwark against radical influences, he said, but in reality the policy -- what he called the "height of strategic malpractice" -- only serves as an excuse for the U.S. not to diplomatically engage with the countries it must: Iran and Syria.

"[It was a mistake] to latch on to this so-called March 14th coalition -- Cedar Revolution -- in Lebanon and to decide to use it as a fulcrum for trying to leverage various U.S. policy objectives," said Leverett. "What we have done here is basically what we did in the 1980s. We picked a group of Western-oriented Lebanese political actors whom we liked because they kind of looked like us and talked like us," he said. "We decided to array them against people who have real street cred; the results then were disastrous, and I think the results now are proving to be very bad." . . .

Briefing on Beirut

Communications — Tue, 13 May 2008 06:30:00 -0400

A New America Event
05/13/2008 - 9:30am

On May 13th the American Strategy Program brought together five leading experts on Middle East and Foreign Policy to discuss the current crisis in Lebanon: a political standoff between the prominent militia Hezbollah and Lebanon’s government. Those participating in the discussion were Rami Khouri, the Editor-at-large of the Daily Star, Hisham Melhem, the DC Bureau Chief of Al Arabiyah, Nir Rosen, a fellow at NYU’s Center on Law and Security and New America, Daniel Levy, the Director of New America’s Middle East Policy Initiative, and Flynt Leverett, the Director of New America’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative. Steven Clemons, the Director of the American Strategy Program moderated the event. An MP3 audio recording can be downloaded below, while video is available at right.

Rami Khouri joined the discussion via telephone from Lebanon. He stated that Lebanon was on the brink of change and the Lebanese people had one choice to make: whether they would move towards Baghdad, a violent civil war based on ethnic and religious divisions or Belfast, an inclusive, fair, and functioning government. Mr. Khouri was optimistic that the Lebanese would be able to work out the internal strife and form a pluralistic society that will integrate the Western and Arab ideals that are prominent in Lebanon. He stated that Lebanon was the best hope for Middle East pluralism and could serve as an example for the rest of the region once they move past the current crisis.

Hisham Melhem was less optimistic about Lebanon’s immediate future. He stated that Hezbollah’s armed offense signaled “the beginning of the end of Lebanese politics.” The rise of the militia’s strength and influence represent transformation and the loss of Lebanese liberalism and western orientation. He remained pragmatically hopeful that an accommodation would be reached, yet expressed concern that Hezbollah would become more extreme rather than moderate.

Nir Rosen also participated via telephone from Lebanon. “Nobody really knows what’s going on here,” Mr. Rosen said on the disarray in Beirut. He drew several comparisons to Iraq: the armed occupation of Beirut, by Hezbollah fighters, and the Sunni-Shi’a conflict. Mr. Rosen also believed that the Lebanese army was complicit, either by looking the other way or supporting Hezbollah during their siege.

Flynt Leverett stated that there have been major mistakes in U.S. policy towards Lebanon. By fully supporting the government led by PM Siniora, the U.S. overlooked unfair representation and power-sharing in Lebanon. Mr. Leverett opined that the U.S.’ role in Lebanon has been erosive to its standing in the Middle East.

Daniel Levy offered a few theories as to why the conflict erupted so quickly. It is possible the government miscalculated Hezbollah’s reaction or they were setting a trap for Hezbollah. Mr. Levy said it may have been by virtue of necessity; Lebanon was in a political and ideological stalemate for a long time and needed outside support or intervention.

-Faith Smith, American Strategy Intern

Flynt Leverett in National Interest Online | Inside Track: Pole Dancing

Communications — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 11:17:00 -0400

New America in the News:

National Interest Online | Inside Track: Pole Dancing

. . . Next to speak was Flynt Leverett of the New America Foundation, who focused on the economic foundation of the world without the West: developing countries are nationalizing their natural resources and converting them into political leverage, with startling success. Leverett maintained that the dramatic increase in energy prices since 2000 tips the geopolitical scales in the direction of oil-and-gas producing powers. The “strategic consequence” of these developments is a huge redistribution of wealth and economic power. Energy exporters like the GCC states and Russia gain; other beneficiaries include manufacturing powerhouses like China, Germany and Japan. Most ominously, the losers from high energy prices—the United States, Great Britain and the European Union—are ringing up large current-account deficits, putting them at the mercy of China and the energy exporters who finance their fiscal shortfalls.

Like Gvosdev and Weber, Leverett saw a huge disconnect between the foreign-policy rhetoric of the U.S. presidential candidates and the actual situation, going so far as to say that Obama, Clinton and McCain must be talking about “some other planet.” . . .

A Place for the U.S.?

Communications — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 08:00:00 -0400

A New America Event
04/17/2008 - 12:00pm

On April 17th, New America Foundation and the University of California Washington Center hosted a panel discussion featuring Flynt Leverett, Fred Kempe, Steven Weber, and Nicholas Gvosdev.

Weber, director of the UC Berkeley Institute for International Studies, described how developing countries such as China and Russia have been able to avoid both assimilation into the current Western international system and military conflict with the U.S. by constructing a set of relationships and institutions that sidestep the current world order, what he has termed a ‘World Without the West’. This system derives its power from control of energy and commodity supplies and raw manufacturing power, not from mastery of technological expertise or the ‘Knowledge Economy’.

Weber then highlighted the tenuous hold of both Western thought and U.S. dominance in the current international system including: frustration in the developing world with the ability of democracy to deliver prosperity and wellbeing as well as the relatively shallow penetration that many western economic and political concepts have achieved in societies throughout the developing world.

Leverett, senior fellow at The New America Foundation, argued that control of commodities and scarce energy reserves will be the defining paradigm in the global economy for years to come. Increased energy demand throughout the developing world and a tight supply have created a structural shift in global energy markets that has rendered past boom-bust cycles obsolete for the foreseeable future. One notable structural shift constraining supply is that 80% of oil reserves are owned by governments as opposed to multinational private corporations. As a result, market forces do not play a role in inducing additional productive capacity.

He also pointed to institutions and relationships that have accompanied the growth of the ‘World Without the West.’ Multilateral institutions such as the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” have begun to compete with traditional multilateral organizations for regional influence. These developments are part of the larger phenomenon of the developing world “soft balancing” U.S. power.

Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, discussed the emerging multi-polarity in the world system and called for increasing cooperation between the U.S. and Europe. He cited the Euro-American bloc as the only effective counterweight to the ‘World Without the West’, noting the close economic and cultural links that make the two regions natural allies.

-Ian McAllister, Intern for the American Strategy Program

Iran's Election: What the Polling Says

Communications — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:30:00 -0400

A New America Event
03/14/2008 - 9:30am

When the Iranian people vote for their parliamentary representatives on Friday, March 14, the results may be surprising. But will the rising dissatisfaction with the government and an increased desire for compromise with the United States translate into change?

The New America Foundation's American Strategy Program along with Terror Free Tomorrow, a leading non-partisan public opinion research organization, will discuss the full results of TFT's most recent poll of Iranian public attitudes.

For more information see Robin Wright's coverage of the TFT polling in The Washington Post.