Anatol Lieven: All Publications, Events and Press

Why We Should Fear a McCain Presidency

Ron Tang — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 14:50:00 -0400

It may seem incredible to say this, given past experience, but a few years from now Europe and the world could be looking back at the Bush administration with nostalgia. This possibility will arise if the US elects Senator John McCain as president in November.

Over the years the US has inserted itself into potential flashpoints in different parts of the world. The Republican party is now about to put forward a natural incendiary as the man to deal with those flashpoints.

The problem that Mr McCain poses stems from his ideology, his policies and above all his personality. His ideology, like… more

Do No Harm

Ron Tang — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

If you don't know what to do, better to do nothing -- and the United States does not really know what to do in Pakistan. Moreover, things there are not nearly as bad as the Western media and some excitable politicians present. The situation is deteriorating, but the country is not yet close to failing. Although it is a flawed state, menaced by terrorists and insurgents, it is still a largely effective one.

By pushing for particular political outcomes, the United States does more harm than good to its own interests -- because, to put it mildly, the United States is… more

Inside Track: Politics as Usual?

Ron Tang — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 00:00:00 -0500

As the presidency of General Pervez Musharraf enters what seem to be its last days, we need to keep one thing firmly in mind. It is that despite the Bush administration’s support for Musharraf, it was also the Bush administration that did the most to destroy him, by forcing him into a subordinate role in a war on terror that most Pakistanis detest. It was not Musharraf’s (very mild) “dictatorship,” but the tag of “Busharraf” which originally crippled his domestic prestige. And if U.S. administrations are not careful, they will help destroy the next Pakistani administration and the one after… more

Anatol Lieven in Toronto Star | 'In shifting power, the rise of manifold destiny'

Communications — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 11:05:00 -0500

New America in the News:

In shifting power, the rise of manifold destiny; If a struggle for resources unfolds between East and West, democratic values could be in for a battering (Toronto Star)

... "For countries like Russia that have been kicked around and patronized by the U.S., a multi-polar world is something of an article of faith," says Anatol Lieven, author of America Right or Wrong: An Anatomy of American Nationalism. "The same may be true of China."

Many believe that in recent years the worst blows to democratic values have been struck by Washington itself, as it flouts the rule of law to pursue its "war on terror," trampling the rights and freedoms it vows to uphold. ...

Anatol Lieven in The Associated Press | 'Chill Between Russia and West Seen Deepening'

Communications — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 11:20:00 -0500

New America in the News:

No blows likely over Kosovo split, but chill between Russia and West seen deepening (The Associated Press)

...Detaching Kosovo from Serbia will likely aggravate disputes over a host of sensitive security issues ranging from missile defense to NATO membership for the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine.

"There are several different issues coming together that's what makes it so dangerous," said Anatol Lieven, a Russia expert who is a professor at King's College London and a senior fellow of the New America Foundation in Washington.

Pakistan: Real and Imaginary Risks

Ron Tang — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Pakistan is a fascinating but disturbing example of risk assessment by the western media and policymakers, especially when it comes to developments in the Muslim world. There is an enormous amount of public and private discussion of the supposed extreme dangers stemming from Pakistan -- sometimes described, as by the United States nuclear proliferation expert Joe Cirincione -- as 'the most dangerous place on earth'.

Fears are concentrated on the twin threats of Islamist revolution and of the state losing control of its nuclear deterrent to terrorists. In fact, these eventualities are very unlikely; or rather, they could only happen as… more

Balkan Unrest Remains a Recipe for Disaster

Ron Tang — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 00:00:00 -0500

In their dealings over Kosovo's independence, the European Union and Russia need to take their points of departure from reality and common responsibility for the stability of the European continent, not from legalism or self-righteousness. The Russians must recognise that, whether they and the Serbs like it or not, Kosovo will soon become independent and will be recognised as such by the US, the EU and many Muslim states. If this is not granted soon, the Kosovo Albanians will revolt. By vetoing United Nations recognition and giving moral support to Serbian intransigence, Russia can help keep Kosovo unstable… more

Pakistan Must Seek a Route From Dynasty to Unity

adminn — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 14:44:00 -0500

To understand the implications of Benazir Bhutto's assassination for Pakistan, first imagine what that country would look like without her Pakistan People's party. It has been overwhelmingly a dynastic party and she was the last politically viable representative of the Bhutto dynasty. Without her to hold it together, it is highly probable the PPP will disintegrate.

In the short term, this is likely to benefit President Pervez Musharraf and the army but, in the longer term, Islamist extremists may have the most to gain.

If the PPP does fragment, the ability of the army to use patronage to put together coalition governments… more

Assessing Putin

Ron Tang — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0500

What will Putin’s legacy amount to? For starters, let us dispense with a giant "red herring" that too many Western commentators have pursued for far too long.

What I am referring to is the question of whether Putin is a “democratic reformer” -- or a “Soviet authoritarian.”

An authoritarian reformer

The answer, of course, is that Putin is an authoritarian reformer. He is profoundly committed to reforms intended to make Russia into a successful modern state. But at the same time, he is profoundly skeptical of his society’s capacity to undertake such reforms without strong control from above -- at least… more

Dining With Putin

Ron Tang — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Our meal with President Vladimir Putin took place at the presidential villa at Novo-Ogaryevo in 2006.

The drive to the presidential village was a short tour of the world of the new Russian elite -- which is now not so very new anymore, given the years that have passed since the Soviet collapse.

The new Russian elite

The road led through the former village of Zhukovka, now containing enormous villas -- some almost as large as that of the president.

We rode by a “Luxury Plaza” featuring shops and signs for Armani, Gucci, Dolce and Gabbana, Bentley and Maserati. The “Dream… more

Hopes for Annapolis and After

adminn — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 15:30:00 -0500

The absurd and tragic thing about the inability of the Israelis and Palestinians to work out a final peace settlement is that, compared with many conflicts, the terms of a settlement are not difficult to delineate and most impartial experts are agreed on them.

They are as set out in a public letter jointly issued by the New America Foundation and other bodies. Key points are a territorial settlement on the basis of the 1967 borders and that Palestinian refugees give up the demand of return to Israel in return for massive compensation.

When it comes to the lead participants, there… more

Western Myths and Pakistani Realities

Articles — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 16:12:00 -0500

In the storm over President Pervez Musharraf's declaration of a state of emergency in Pakistan, a number of critically important things have been overlooked -- important not only in themselves, but in what they say about the ways in which Pakistan works and doesn't work.

The first is that as coups go, this has been a pretty genteel kind . The comparisons being made between this and events in Burma or Uzbekistan are false. At the time of this writing, no one has been killed. Most of those arrested have not been sent to prison but placed under house arrest; and… more

The Wrong Way for Putin to Retain Influence

Articles — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 09:50:00 -0400

The key political question in Russia over the past two decades has not been about the relationship between democracy and dictatorship, but between different kinds of oligarchy. The oligarchy that has taken shape under President Vladimir Putin is far more coherent, close-knit and disciplined than Boris Yeltsin’s collection of feuding magnates. It has a common culture and ethic drawn from the common origins of many of its members in the Soviet security services. Its comparative success is due to these factors, as well as good luck with energy prices and good economic management.

Then again, a fully fledged oligarchy does not… more

Anatol Lieven in The Guardian on U.S. Relations with Russia

Communications — Sat, 25 Aug 2007 09:59:00 -0400

New America in the News:

...Russia held wargames last week in the Urals involving troops from Russia and China and four central Asian states. Moscow has infuriated Georgia after a Russian missile landed on the outskirts of its capital, Tbilisi. Much of the military posturing is for internal consumption, ahead of parliamentary elections in December and a presidential poll in spring. Pictures showing a shirtless Mr Putin on a fishing trip have been a source of national pride.

The U.S. appears relaxed about this newfound Russian machismo. After all, Washington's defence budget is at least 20 times bigger than Moscow's. And U.S. generals are unperturbed by the Russian Bears close to its airspace. Brigadier-General Richard Sherlock, director of international security operations, was asked at a Pentagon briefing on Thursday about Russian flights close to Guam and Alaska. U.S. planes had been scrambled, but he played down the significance: "Militaries all over the world conduct a variety of operations. This is not something new."

Sean McCormack, the U.S. state department spokesman, said last week: "If Russia feels as though they want to take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying again, that's their decision."

Anatol Lieven, a Russia specialist at the Washington-based New America Foundation, said it was clear Moscow was going to ramp up its response to President George Bush's controversial missile defence project in eastern Europe.

"It indicates to the U.S. that this move is not cost-free and shows the Russian population that the government is still acting toughly to defend Russian prestige abroad," he said. "It is depressing but it is not a new cold war..."

For the complete article, please visit The Guardian web site.

Humanitarian Action Can Mask an Imperial Agenda

adminn — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 15:31:00 -0400

Even western observers who criticise human rights groups for naivety or irresponsibility generally give them credit for purity of intentions -- and, of course, this noble character is indeed true of many groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. But it is not always true, and western public debate would benefit greatly from a recognition of the moral ambiguities involved in some contemporary human rights advocacy.

The uses of such advocacy for imperial propaganda are alive and well in the US, and some of its allies, at a moment when America's own actions are gravely undermining… more

Ted Widmer Named Senior Research Fellow with the American Strategy Program

Communications — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 09:34:00 -0400

New America Foundation today announced that Ted Widmer, a former senior adviser to President Clinton and a former director of speech writing at the National Security Council (1997-2001), joins its American Strategy Program as a Senior Research Fellow. Dr. Widmer will examine U.S. foreign policy through the contours of the American historical experience.

"Ted Widmer is one of the emerging key chroniclers and interpreters of American political history,” said Steve Clemons, director of the American Strategy Program at New America. “His knack for drilling down into the deep philosophical and political origins of contemporary foreign policy behavior will… more

Inter Press Service Quotes Anatol Lieven on Pakistan, Al-Qaeda

Communications — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 14:35:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), a two-page unclassified version of which was released here Tuesday, found that al Qaeda has largely rebounded from its eviction from Afghanistan nearly six years ago and re-constituted both its central organisation and some of its training and operational capacities, leading to a ‘’heightened threat environment’’ for the U.S. itself.

According to the report, which represents a consensus judgment of Washington’s 16 intelligence agencies, the group’s resurgence has been made possible primarily by the ‘’safe haven’’ it has enjoyed in the tribal areas of western Pakistan and also by its association with al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which has helped to ‘’energise the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives…’’

The Bush administration has long prodded the government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to attack suspected al Qaeda bases in the tribal areas that border Afghanistan, and its army did so with some success between late 2001 and 2004, when it captured or killed a number of high-ranking al Qaeda operatives, sometimes with the help of U.S. intelligence and its Predator missiles...

But more-aggressive military action also carries serious risks to Musharraf, who, according to some accounts, was forced into the withdrawal agreements by his own army commanders.

‘’They’re very afraid of sparking a wider civil war among the Pashtuns of Pakistan, because one has to remember that most Pashtuns live in Pakistan, not in Afghanistan, but they identify very closely with the Pashtuns of Afghanistan,’’ Anatol Lieven, a South Asia expert at the New America Foundation, said on the same programme. ‘’And the Pashtuns also contribute disproportionately to the Pakistani army...’’

For the complete article, please visit the Inter Press Service website.

The Red Mosque Falls

Articles — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:09:00 -0400

WASHINGTON -- The storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad was a Pakistani action, undertaken for Pakistani reasons. Critical actions of future Pakistani governments, civilian or military, will be taken for the same basic reasons -- and not at the desire of Washington. American presidents can of course bring great pressure to bear on Pakistan, but for obvious reasons, they are unlikely ever to get a Pakistani government to commit suicide on their behalf.

It is important to point this out because so much American commentary seems based on the unconscious assumption that a Pakistani government’s first moral duty is to… more

Back to Bhutto?

Articles — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 12:21:00 -0400

One of the nice things about Pakistan at the moment is that it makes me feel young again. I first went there in 1988 as a stringer for the Times to cover the aftermath of General Zia's assassination and the military-managed "transition to democracy." The inheritors of government were Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People’s party (PPP), but the military was careful to balance her electoral victory by keeping an ally of theirs, Mian Nawaz Sharif, as chief minister of the most populous province, Punjab.

Nineteen years have passed, the Soviet Union has fallen, the US has invaded and occupied… more

Spend More on Making Wealth Not War

Articles — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 14:47:00 -0400

In recent years US spending on the military, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and military aid to particular allies has exceeded US foreign development aid by more than 10 times. This is despite the fact that the administration, its Republican supporters, the Democrats and the vast majority of the foreign policy community all agree in principle that such development is critical to the struggle against Islamist extremism.

Even odder is the fact that, although US security structures remain profoundly shaped by their cold war origins, in this regard the US establishment has forgotten its own successful record during the… more