Joel Kotkin: All Publications, Events and Press

Whither the American Economy?

Communications — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 08:30:00 -0500

A New America Event
11/30/2007 - 8:30am

Responding to the damage caused by the slowdown in housing, the subprime mortgage crisis, and fears of a U.S. recession, the New America Foundation held a national policy forum on the need for a new era of public investment on Friday, November 30, 2007.

Despite the recent economic slowdown, New America Foundation board member Bernard L. Schwartz opened the conference with an optimistic message. The dynamism of the American economy, Schwartz argues, bolstered by robust public investment, can overcome present challenges. Schwartz and Economic Growth Program director Sherle Schwenninger outline a strategy for rebuilding the American economic engine in “Public Investment Works,” which appears in the fall issue of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.

Video of Schwartz's opening presentation is available at right. Videos of the other presentations and panels -- as well as presentation materials, the policy papers released at this event, and other details -- are included below.

Johnson Presentation

Panel 1: How Hard Will the Fall Be?

Lachman Presentation

Panel 2: Shaking
It Off?

Conference Papers

The Macroeconomic Considerations of a Public Investment Strategy
by James Galbraith
James Galbraith examines the depressing effects of the slowdown in housing, the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, and the inter-connected problems of failing infrastructure and long-term climate change.

Back to Basics: A Pro-Growth Public Investment Strategy
by Joel Kotkin
Joel Kotkin argues that the era of asset price inflation—the housing and stock market bubbles—has masked a perilous hollowing out of public infrastructure, the key to sustained and equitable economic growth.

Conference Presentation Materials

Presentation Slides from Simon Johnson's Kickoff to Panel 1

Presentation Slides from Desmond Lachman's Kickoff to Panel 2

Participant Spotlight

Saviors of the Citi
by Zach Karabell, Wall Street Journal
November 30, 2007

"The recent announcement that Citibank received a cash infusion of $7.5 billion from Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund was greeted with a mixture of relief and bewilderment by the financial markets." read more (subscription required)

Time to Stand Up to Wall Street
By Steve Pearlstein, The Washington Post
October 31, 2007

"Remember all those stories about how the nose dive in financial markets was the first big test for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the academic economist who was still developing his feel for the interplay between the central bank and Wall Street?" read more

Back to Basics: A Pro-Growth Public Investment Strategy

Economic Growth — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 16:32:00 -0500

For more than a decade, rising asset prices have driven the economy, benefiting the wealthy but doing relatively little to improve either the economic status of the majority of Americans or the country’s overall competitiveness. Rising stock and housing prices created staggering short-term increases in wealth for some, but did little to bolster the nation’s preeminence in technology, industry, or agriculture.

In order to retool the economy and generate balanced, robust job growth, the government should focus on rebuilding and enhancing the nation’s energy, transportation, and communications infrastructure. Judicious investment in renewing and creating critical public goods… more

Can't Stand the Heat

Articles — Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:51:00 -0400

It’s all the suburbs’ fault. You know, everything -- traffic congestion, overweight kids, social alienation. Oh, and lest we forget, global warming and rising energy costs, too.

That latest knock against the burbs has caught on widely. With their multiplying McMansions and exploding Explorers, the burbs are the reason we’re paying so much for gas and heating oil and spewing all those emissions that are heating up the atmosphere --or so a host of urban proponents tells us. It’s time to ditch the burbs and go back to the city. New York, Boston, Chicago -- these densely packed metropolises are "models… more

San Fernando Valley Business Journal Quotes David Gray, Joel Kotkin

Communications — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 07:35:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The value of a workplace diversity program may be best shown by the decisions made during economic downturns.

Do the programs stay, continuing their goal of making the working environment reflective of society at large and promoting awareness of different cultures and lifestyles?

Or do they get cut and possibly send a negative message to the employees – and the non-business world – that the company no longer considers diversity to be important.

The larger a corporation, the more extras they may add to their diversity programs – mandatory training, feedback surveys, cultural events, and employee network or support groups; programs that cost in the millions...

Hospitals and other healthcare providers in general are not as affected by bad economic times as some industries and so would not be as likely to cut back on diversity programs because of their close contact with the public...

The reasons for starting diversity programs has less to do with the economy than with responding to an event or a trend the corporate culture sees or because the legal or human resources department wants to have one, said David Gray, director of workforce and family program at non profit policy institute and think tank New America Foundation.

“Once they start they are harder to remove because it might signal a step back to certain employees,” Gray said. “People are reluctant to add them for that reason...”

Southern California with its wide mix of races and ethnicities is unique in the opportunity presented to employers to create diverse workplaces.

According to state statistics, the population of Los Angeles County was estimated to hit 10.2 million in 2006. Of that number, more than 7 million are Hispanics, Asians, Pacific Islanders, African American or Native American. About 150,000 were estimated to be multi-racial.

Seeing those numbers makes it understandable why Sherman Oaks-based author and urban historian Joel Kotkin said that in Los Angeles diversity programs are a “hangover from a different era.”

When he gets from talking with employers is they are struggling to find the best people possible to fill positions, Kotkin said, adding that what the business world needs to do is upgrade the skills of those entering the workforce regardless of their ethnicity...

For the complete article, please visit the San Fernando Valley Business Journal website.

Katie Couric Interviews Joel Kotkin on American Cities for 10 Questions

Communications — Thu, 17 May 2007 13:36:00 -0400

New America in the News:

At a time when American cities are changing so rapidly--both as centers of our society, as a launch pads for escape to suburbs and exurbs--I thought I'd consult with the man who may be the country's leading expert on urban life, Joel Kotkin, author and Irvine Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation. He’s the subject of this week’s 10 Questions. We talked about the problem with trendiness in cities, what it takes to make a well-managed city, and why sustaining the middle class is so important.

1. Mr. Kotkin, your book, "The City: A Global History," distills the essence of why cities were created-and what they are meant to accomplish-in about 200 pages. So here's the most basic question: how do you define a city-and what is it there for?

Kotkin: A city is a place that is more than a village or town. It provides all the essential needs, and also tends to have a strong sense of identity and purpose. In our expanding urbanized world, more and more places -- even small towns and some suburbs -- are becoming more like cities, particularly with the internet.

2. You've long criticized the middle class leaving cities for suburbs and exurbs-and leaving only the super-rich and poor in their place. What does it take for the middle class to stay in a city-and why is it so vital that they be there?

Kotkin: The middle class is the ballast that holds cities together. It allows for the broadest spectrum of employment and services. Keeping it in some cities will be difficult due to high housing prices and bifurcated job markets; in other cities, it's still safety and lack of opportunity. Almost everywhere it's schools. Economy, schools, safety are the keys to retaining a strong middle class...

For the complete interview, please visit the CBS website.

Suburban Idyll

Articles — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 20:51:00 -0400

No generation has lauded their revolutionary status more fervently than baby boomers. In documentaries, articles and books they are portrayed -- by themselves and others -- as agents of epochal change who, in the representative words of American University communications professor Leonard Steinhorn, have built "the inclusive, tolerant, free and equal America we have today."

Spoil sports may point out an older generation did the heavy lifting of surviving a depression, defeating the Nazis, overthrowing communism and launching the drive for civil rights. And some conservative boomers, outraged by the flood of self-congratulation, see their own breed as a scourge, undermining… more

Why Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Hollywood Now Rule

Articles — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 16:07:00 -0400

Power in America is shifting from George W. Bush’s Sun Belt mafia -- with its roots in post-1950s aerospace, energy and development -- to a new political triad: a handover of control from one oligarchy to another.

This new triad draws its power from three key postindustrial power centers: technology, entertainment and finance. Its geographic orientation is different as well. Rather than having its primary bases in boomtowns like Houston, Dallas, Charlotte or Phoenix, the new elite clusters mostly in the more established, refined reaches of Silicon Valley, Hollywood and Manhattan.

Nowhere is this shift more notable than in the extraordinary attention… more

Joel Kotkin in The Christian Science Monitor on Unionizing in L.A.

Communications — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 17:28:00 -0400

New America in the News:

It's no secret that labor unions are struggling with declining membership and loss of negotiating clout, but don't tell that to the hundreds of activists who gathered Friday for a rally outside the Hilton Hotel at Los Angeles International Airport...

Analysts note that the city is a major entry point for immigrants, legal and otherwise, who tend to work at low-wage jobs in numbers large enough to have some collective impact. It has active environmental and religious communities, which are increasingly taking up the causes of the poor. Moreover, they say, an exodus by much of the middle class leaves a city in which the contrast between Hollywood's megarich and South Central's slipping poor is acute and, to many, disturbing...

"The big targets for unionization in L.A. are getting smaller," says economist Joel Kotkin, Irvine senior fellow at the New America Foundation who writes on economic, political, and social trends. "Outside the big public projects, you don't see a lot of union labor, and you are not going to organize day laborers [standing] outside Costco. Since many of the workers don't vote, aren't citizens, and make low wages, the unions are going to have somewhat less money and clout than the industrial unions of before..."

For the complete article, please visit The Christian Science Monitor website.

Hollywood, Wall Street and Silicon Valley

Articles — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 21:07:00 -0400

The collapse of the Bush administration may be seen by some on the left as a triumph of the popular will. But its main result may more accurately be read as a handover of control from one oligarchy to another. A new, more "enlightened" group may be rising to power, but it’s still unclear what this will mean to the vast majority of Americans.

Power in America is shifting from George Bush’s Sun Belt mafia -- with its roots in post-1950s aerospace, energy and development -- to a new political triad. This new triad draws its power from three key post-industrial… more

Joel Kotkin in The Business Press on Developing Riverside

Communications — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 19:40:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Brein Clements, co-owner and head chef at Restaurant Omakase, has watched the same scene repeatedly since he opened the restaurant in downtown Riverside in July.

"People finish their meal, they go straight to their cars and drive off," said Clements, who operates the restaurant - a combination of Japanese and French cuisine - near The Mission Inn along with his wife Roryann. "They don't stay and walk around the city, because there really isn't that much to see. It gets frustrating."

But that may change: the City Council Feb. 20 approved a $50 million residential-retail project called m solè, pronounced "em-so-lay," which will be built by Los Angeles developer Alan Mruvka...

Developers like the concept because it appeals to a wide demographic, from young single professionals to young couples without children to empty nesters.

"If you have a lot of amenities in a downtown that people can walk to, then it has a chance of working," said Joel Kotkin, an author and lecturer who has written extensively on urban planning issues.

"But there isn't that much in downtown Riverside, except for the Mission Inn and a few stores, so I'm not sure. But there are a lot of ways you can spruce up downtown Riverside."

Cities should welcome projects like m solè if they believe such a development can succeed, said Kotkin, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, a non-partisan public policy institute in Washington, D.C.

Municipalities should be reluctant to subsidize them, he said.

"I'm all for a little bit of capitalist risk-taking," Kotkin said. "If a developer wants to spend his money, that's fine with me. Why not? Just don't spend any of my money..."

For the complete article, please visit The Business Press website.

The Myth of ‘Superstar Cities’

Articles — Tue, 13 Feb 2007 22:43:00 -0500

"If New York City is a business, it isn’t Wal-Mart -- it isn’t trying to be the lowest-priced product in the market. It’s a high-end product, maybe even a luxury product. New York offers tremendous value, but only for those companies able to capitalize on it."

-- Mayor Michael Bloomberg, January 2003

These seem the best of times for America’s elite cities. Wall Street’s 2006 megabonuses created thousands of instant millionaires, and, with their venture-fund soulmates in places like San Francisco, Boston and Greenwich, the best people are prowling for Ferraris, planes, multimillion-dollar condos, the newest $200 lunch place and the… more

Joel Kotkin on Manufacturing a City in US News & World Report

Communications — Mon, 12 Feb 2007 22:44:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Eli Broad never met a schedule he couldn't love...A newshound who built two Fortune 500 companies and a multibillion-dollar fortune, Broad (rhymes with road) whizzes through the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times each morning before most people can conquer a double cappuccino. He rarely slows down to finish a story, unless, as someone close to him puts it, "it's about him."

But it's "about him" so often these days that just keeping up with himself threatens to throw Broad completely off schedule. One of the richest (net worth $5.8 billion), most powerful (as much clout as the mayor), and most philanthropic men in Los Angeles (and the nation), Broad is a blunt force in business, the arts, education reform, and politics. He is the city's leading cultural rainmaker, the major mover behind its $1.8 billion downtown redevelopment, and a powerful liberal Democrat who really can make things happen simply by picking up the phone...

Now, as chairman of the $1.8 billion Grand Avenue Project, Broad is out to manufacture the "downtown" he believes L.A. is missing. The Gehry-designed project, with its wide sidewalks, shops, theaters, restaurants, office towers, five-star hotel, and 16-acre park, is intended to be to the city what the Champs-Elysées (aka the Champs Eli) is to Paris. "Los Angeles is divided culturally and geographically, and it needs a vibrant center where everyone can come together," says Broad, who adds that L.A.'s vastness unnerved him when he first moved here in the 1960s because he didn't understand it. Some critics think he still doesn't.

"Eli has this notion that a great city must have a dynamic downtown, and that's what a city lives by," says Joel Kotkin of the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C., and author of The City: A Global History. "Yet he has been living in one of the greatest cities in the world, and it's the exact opposite. L.A. is a multipolar city, and the notion that you can create New York in the middle of it without understanding the context is a mistake. He's in denial."

For the complete article, please visit the US News & World Report website.

Joel Kotkin on Growing Cities and 'Regular People' in the Virginian Pilot

Communications — Fri, 02 Feb 2007 17:04:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Feb. 2--HAMPTON -- In their pursuit of economic growth, the nation's cities should be doing much more to protect their blue-collar jobs rather than courting hip young people in search of culture, an urban analyst told a gathering of the region's business leaders.

The prospects for growth in Hampton Roads are particularly bright because it has a vibrant port, something that's been a key source of economic activity for Los Angeles, said Joel Kotkin, an author and Los Angeles resident.

"Everybody pays attention to the idiocy of movie stars, but it's the longshoremen in the port that drive the economy" of Los Angeles, Kotkin told 285 people at the Hampton Roads Economic Development Alliance's annual luncheon.

In some of the nation's "superstar" cities like Boston and San Francisco, the population has been stagnating or declining because these cities no longer provide the opportunities for advancement that lower-income and moderate-income people are seeking, Kotkin said at the Hampton Marina Hotel.

In some localities, he said, that appears to be intentional.

"There's this notion that if we could get rid of regular people, our cities would be great," he said.

The hot spots of growth in recent years have been cities like Phoenix, Charlotte and Houston, in part, because they have much more affordable housing than larger, flashier cities such as Boston, New York and San Francisco, he said.

Kotkin, senior fellow at the New America Foundation and author of "The City: A Global History ", published in 2006, has been a particularly harsh critic of municipal leaders who attempt to reinvigorate their cities by promoting night spots, condos and arts festivals for members of the "creative class..."

For the complete article, please visit the Virginian-Pilot website.

Joel Kotkin on Developing Hampton in Newport Daily Press

Communications — Fri, 02 Feb 2007 16:11:00 -0500

New America in the News:

HAMPTON -- Standing at the intersection of Innovate Avenue and Imagine Avenue, author Joel Kotkin told area political, civic and business leaders Thursday that they needed to make Hampton Roads "a place of aspiration" to draw residents and businesses.

The street signs were fake. They were placed on stage at the Radisson Hotel Hampton for the annual meeting of the Hampton Roads Economic Development Alliance.

But the message was real. Kotkin, who has been published in major newspapers and magazines, challenged the 300 or so attending to make Hampton Roads a region "where people will come or stay because they believe their life will be better."

Kotkin is an Irvine Fellow at the New America Foundation and author of "The City: A Global History." He began his talk by saying Hampton Roads was on its way to "becoming something dynamic."

He pointed to two main reasons. First, he said, the area's port is "challenging the supremacy of the port of New York" and that "all great regions have been great port regions." Ports bring in other businesses and services, he said, and contribute significantly to economic growth...

For the complete article, please visit the Newport Daily Press website.

A Real Estate Bust Would Boost L.A.

Articles — Mon, 29 Jan 2007 00:19:00 -0500

For the last five years, speculators, big developers and homeowners have gorged on Los Angeles real estate. The huge run-up in prices -- more than 135% from 2001 to 2006 -- has greatly increased the spending power of property owners. Yet there has been a worrisome consequence: Working and middle-class families are moving out -- and failing to move in -- because they cannot afford a house here. Long term, that’s not good for the local economy. As perverse as it sounds, what L.A. needs now is a real estate bust.

Recent history is illustrative here. The big and rapid declines… more

North America Needs an Energy Alliance

Articles — Sun, 21 Jan 2007 23:11:00 -0500

In the opening decades of the 21st century, virtually all of America’s most critical problems -- political, environmental and economic -- will be wrapped up within the issue of energy. Energy fuels our deadliest enemies, threatens our environment, and poses a direct challenge to our long-term economic viability.

What is needed now is a coherent strategy that deals directly with our fundamental geopolitical dilemma: how to grow our economy while reducing our dependence on imported energy and, over time, carbon-emitting fuels.

We believe there is such a workable strategy. It centers on the creation of a powerful energy alliance among the three… more

SF Chronicle Quotes Joel Kotkin on Gov. Schwarzenegger's Reforms

Communications — Mon, 15 Jan 2007 19:12:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is getting high marks nationwide for setting a bold second-term agenda that would overhaul the state's health care system, promote clean energy, fix a troubled prison system and provide billions more dollars for public works projects.

More than just putting big ideas on a list, Schwarzenegger is also showing a willingness to confront -- and even unite -- vested interests resistant to the kind of audacious change the governor has in mind.

But there are also growing questions about whether there is the political and popular will to sustain his vision...For his plans to succeed, Schwarzenegger must engineer a tectonic political shift that holds despite the ebbs and flows of political and daily life.

Schwarzenegger came to the Capitol three years ago, proclaiming a mandate to change the political culture of California, and last week he reprised that with a vow to move past party politics and partisan divide...

One big advantage that Schwarzenegger has is that his party is not in control of the Legislature -- so Democrats will be more willing to accept compromise from him than they would a governor from their party.

For the same reason, some said Schwarzenegger can also survive the push-back from the business community and conservatives on key issues -- especially his health care reform.

"It's the Nixon in China syndrome,'' said author Joel Kotkin, who specializes in business and economic trends and is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. "Schwarzenegger has enough credibility with at least parts of the business community to argue that [his health care plan[ is not an anti-business, anti-capitalist jihad,'' he said. "When it comes from the Democrats,'' the business community views reform as " 'let's sock it to business as much as possible...' ''

For the complete article, please visit The San Francisco Chronicle.

Joel Kotkin on Revitalization in the Sioux Falls Argus Leader

Communications — Tue, 09 Jan 2007 16:42:00 -0500

New America in the News:

As the city continues plans to revitalize a six-block area west of downtown, residents living on the fringe of that neighborhood share similar concerns about crime, run-down housing and other issues.

Since Mayor Dave Munson stepped up police and property inspection efforts last summer, residents have met the plan with guarded optimism.

Later this month, a task force will begin focusing the city's vision of tidy neighborhoods lined with commercial, mixed-use and spared historical buildings...

After the city announced the revitalization plan and news of stepped-up policing spread, landlord Gill Ristesund said offers on his West 14th Street property dwindled...Yet, property values typically increase in neighborhoods surrounding a revitalization, said Joel Kotkin, an urban historian with New America Foundation, a nonprofit public policy research institute.

But Misty Thu is worried that problems will just shift to other neighborhoods...She said her home has been broken into four times, and cash and gifts were stolen. She has also come home to find a man sleeping in her living room, she said...

But trends suggest that Thu's neighborhood and others in central Sioux Falls could soon change, Kotkin said.

Midwestern cites have a market for mixed-use buildings in redeveloped neighborhoods, Kotkin said. But plans that designate low-income areas have failed.

"For cities to prosper, they must change, which ultimately people will be displaced," he said. "It's the way cities and economics function..."

For the complete article, please visit the Sioux Falls Argus Leader website.

L.A. Daily News Quotes Joel Kotkin on Mayor Villaraigosa

Communications — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 17:43:00 -0500

New America in the News:

And after a lengthy honeymoon in office, Villaraigosa's frenetic public pace and wide-ranging reforms -- including raising wages, hiking trash fees and hiring more cops -- have begun to prickle critics who say the mayor must start turning promises into actions...

Joel Kotkin, senior fellow at the New America Foundation, said the mayor was skillful in his use of political power during his first full year on the job.

"We are in this kind of strange period where (Villaraigosa) and the governor are both governing from the center -- or at least what passes for the center in Los Angeles and California -- and there is no real opposition," Kotkin said.

Kotkin said that even when Villaraigosa has suffered a setback -- such as the court ruling against AB 1381 -- he used it to his advantage.

"From a political and P.R. point of view, it's brilliant," Kotkin said. "This way he can argue he tried to make reform but was blocked by the courts. And it enables him to do that while approving giveaways of downtown Los Angeles."

Kotkin has been among a handful of critics who question the city subsidies granted for the Grand Avenue civic center project being developed by billionaire Eli Broad and the l.a. live entertainment complex that broke ground in 2006 near Staples Center...

The city has agreed to waive the hotel bed tax for a number of years for both projects -- some $60 million that otherwise would flow to the city's coffers.

"I just don't see why public money should be used for those," Kotkin said. "He's been able to push through subsidies that a (former Mayor) Dick Riordan would have been crucified for..."

Ultimately, Kotkin believes Villaraigosa's political future depends on the local economy -- particularly property values -- as much as any other factor.

"As long as the economy is humming along, he will do fine," Kotkin said. "But I think there are storm clouds out there. As a city, Los Angeles is not doing as well as some of its neighbors."

"As long as he keeps the property values up, he will be able to continue to do things."

For the complete article, please visit the Los Angeles Daily News website.

Joel Kotkin on Mayor Villaraigosa in the Long Beach Press-Telegram

Communications — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:57:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Even as he burnished his image as an international political figure, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa faced heightened challenges at home last year over his aggressive efforts to consolidate and assert his authority.

One of just two officials nationally to offer the Democratic response to President George W. Bush's State of the Union address last January, Villaraigosa also hosted Mexican President Vicente Fox and British Prime Minister Tony Blair and was feted during a trade mission to Asia

But on the issue he has deemed the most important in his 18 months as mayor -- reforming the Los Angeles Unified School District -- the mayor grappled with his harshest critics and ultimately found his efforts stalled in court...

Villaraigosa said he hopes to be successful in appealing the ruling that invalidated Assembly Bill 1381, which would have allowed him to run some of LAUSD's lowest-performing schools and given him more control over the entire district...

Joel Kotkin, senior fellow at the New America Foundation, said the mayor was skillful in his use of political power during his first full year on the job.

Kotkin said that even when Villaraigosa has suffered a setback -- such as the court ruling against AB 1381 -- he used it to his advantage.

Kotkin has been among critics who question the city subsidies granted for the Grand Avenue civic center project being developed by billionaire Eli Broad and the l.a. live entertainment complex that broke ground in 2006 near Staples Center.

The city has agreed to waive the hotel bed tax for a number of years for both projects -- some $60 million that otherwise would flow to the city's coffers.

Villaraigosa and his supporters see city involvement as an investment to provide for the region's future growth.

Ultimately, Kotkin believes Villaraigosa's political future depends on the local economy, saying that there may be storm clouds on the horizon, with the city not doing as well as some of its neighbors.

"As long as he keeps the property values up, he will be able to continue to do things."

For the complete article, please visit The Long Beach Press-Telegram website.