Nir Rosen: All Publications, Events and Press

The Great Divide

Ron Tang — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 11:49:00 -0400

Five years after a war allegedly launched to liberate Iraq’s Shiite majority, American forces have been bombing Shiite neighbourhoods in Basra and Baghdad while their snipers and tanks remain on the ground in places like Sadr City.

Iraq seems to have emerged from the worst phase of its civil war, but the victorious Shiite factions have turned their arms on one another in a fight over the spoils, battling for political power in advance of the upcoming provincial elections.

But as the Americans attempt to secure an agreement with the government of Nouri al Maliki to legalise the long-term presence of troops… more

Reports from Lebanon and Video Coverage of the New America Foundation's "Briefing on Beirut"

Communications — Wed, 14 May 2008 11:55:00 -0400

On Tuesday, May 13, the New America Foundation hosted an event featuring two journalists reporting from Beirut on the unfolding security and political crisis in Lebanon. Rami Khouri, editor-at-large of the Daily Star, discussed the large scale political and social trends have led to the current crisis. Nir Rosen, a fellow at the New America Foundation, reported live from the streets of Beirut on the tactical gains made by Hezbollah as well as its broader strategy. They were joined by a panel discussion featuring Daniel Levy, former Israeli negotiator and advisor to the Israeli prime minister's office, and current director… more

Flynt Leverett and Nir Rosen in IPS News | "Lebanon Crisis Shows Hues of Iraq"

Communications — Wed, 14 May 2008 10:55:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Full article

. . . "This is more and more becoming a Sunni-Shi'a conflict. It really does feel like Iraq," said journalist Nir Rosen in a conference call with analysts and reporters at the New American Foundation.

"Sunni militias, backed by the Future Movement, formed over the last year, and have been a complete failure, perhaps because they were fighting for money. They just disappeared and caused a great sense of betrayal and shock among Sunnis," said Rosen, adding that the perceived victimisation of Sunnis had instigated more radical circles in Tripoli to fight against the "apostate Shi'a", that they appeared "eager to start this battle", according to Rosen. . .

Rosen, who is currently in Beirut and accompanied Shi'a Amal fighters as they battled on the streets, described Hezbollah fighters acting "hand in hand" with the army on the commercial strip of Hamra Street in West Beirut. Most of the targets captured by Hezbollah and their allies were subsequently turned over to the army. "They are not trying to change the demographic balance in Beirut, it is to make a show of force to let rival militias know [Hezbollah] could have a real political coup," said Rosen. "Hezbollah's main concern is to keep weapons; it doesn't have much interest in running things in Lebanon." . . .

"Lebanon, in the post Hariri period, is not in any really meaningful sense a democracy. It is a political order rooted in the distribution of political assets along sectarian lines, and the patterns of distribution are way out of whack with demographic reality, particularly with regard to the Shi'a," said Flynt Leverett, once a senior specialist on the Middle East for the Bush administration's National Security Council.

Leverett described the Lebanese political arena as a "sideshow" when compared to the Bush administration's real strategic interests in the region. Washington champions hollow talk about "democracy" as a bulwark against radical influences, he said, but in reality the policy -- what he called the "height of strategic malpractice" -- only serves as an excuse for the U.S. not to diplomatically engage with the countries it must: Iran and Syria.

"[It was a mistake] to latch on to this so-called March 14th coalition -- Cedar Revolution -- in Lebanon and to decide to use it as a fulcrum for trying to leverage various U.S. policy objectives," said Leverett. "What we have done here is basically what we did in the 1980s. We picked a group of Western-oriented Lebanese political actors whom we liked because they kind of looked like us and talked like us," he said. "We decided to array them against people who have real street cred; the results then were disastrous, and I think the results now are proving to be very bad." . . .

Briefing on Beirut

Communications — Tue, 13 May 2008 06:30:00 -0400

A New America Event
05/13/2008 - 9:30am

On May 13th the American Strategy Program brought together five leading experts on Middle East and Foreign Policy to discuss the current crisis in Lebanon: a political standoff between the prominent militia Hezbollah and Lebanon’s government. Those participating in the discussion were Rami Khouri, the Editor-at-large of the Daily Star, Hisham Melhem, the DC Bureau Chief of Al Arabiyah, Nir Rosen, a fellow at NYU’s Center on Law and Security and New America, Daniel Levy, the Director of New America’s Middle East Policy Initiative, and Flynt Leverett, the Director of New America’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative. Steven Clemons, the Director of the American Strategy Program moderated the event. An MP3 audio recording can be downloaded below, while video is available at right.

Rami Khouri joined the discussion via telephone from Lebanon. He stated that Lebanon was on the brink of change and the Lebanese people had one choice to make: whether they would move towards Baghdad, a violent civil war based on ethnic and religious divisions or Belfast, an inclusive, fair, and functioning government. Mr. Khouri was optimistic that the Lebanese would be able to work out the internal strife and form a pluralistic society that will integrate the Western and Arab ideals that are prominent in Lebanon. He stated that Lebanon was the best hope for Middle East pluralism and could serve as an example for the rest of the region once they move past the current crisis.

Hisham Melhem was less optimistic about Lebanon’s immediate future. He stated that Hezbollah’s armed offense signaled “the beginning of the end of Lebanese politics.” The rise of the militia’s strength and influence represent transformation and the loss of Lebanese liberalism and western orientation. He remained pragmatically hopeful that an accommodation would be reached, yet expressed concern that Hezbollah would become more extreme rather than moderate.

Nir Rosen also participated via telephone from Lebanon. “Nobody really knows what’s going on here,” Mr. Rosen said on the disarray in Beirut. He drew several comparisons to Iraq: the armed occupation of Beirut, by Hezbollah fighters, and the Sunni-Shi’a conflict. Mr. Rosen also believed that the Lebanese army was complicit, either by looking the other way or supporting Hezbollah during their siege.

Flynt Leverett stated that there have been major mistakes in U.S. policy towards Lebanon. By fully supporting the government led by PM Siniora, the U.S. overlooked unfair representation and power-sharing in Lebanon. Mr. Leverett opined that the U.S.’ role in Lebanon has been erosive to its standing in the Middle East.

Daniel Levy offered a few theories as to why the conflict erupted so quickly. It is possible the government miscalculated Hezbollah’s reaction or they were setting a trap for Hezbollah. Mr. Levy said it may have been by virtue of necessity; Lebanon was in a political and ideological stalemate for a long time and needed outside support or intervention.

-Faith Smith, American Strategy Intern

Nir Rosen in IPS News | "Bush Tour Diminished by Hezbollah Show of Force"

Communications — Mon, 12 May 2008 11:03:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Full article

. . . "These Sunni militiamen proved a complete failure, and America's proxies in Lebanon barely put up a fight despite their strident anti-Shiite rhetoric," noted Nir Rosen, a regional expert at the New America Foundation who described Hezbollah's offensive as "the death throes of the Bush plan for the 'New Middle East'."

"Now it is clear that Beirut is firmly in the hands of Hezbollah, and nothing the Americans can do will dislodge or weaken this popular movement, just as they cannot weaken the Sadrists in Iraq or Hamas in Gaza," he said. . .

The Myth of the Surge

Ron Tang — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

It's a cold, gray day in December, and I'm walking down Sixtieth Street in the Dora district of Baghdad, one of the most violent and fearsome of the city's no-go zones. Devastated by five years of clashes between American forces, Shiite militias, Sunni resistance groups and Al Qaeda, much of Dora is now a ghost town. This is what "victory" looks like in a once upscale neighborhood of Iraq: Lakes of mud and sewage fill the streets. Mountains of trash stagnate in the pungent liquid. Most of the windows in the sand-colored homes are broken, and the wind blows through… more

Scapegoats in an Unwelcoming Land

adminn — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 23:20:00 -0500

Last Wednesday, a car-bomb blast on a crowded Beirut street killed Brig. Gen. Francois Hajj, one of Lebanon's top generals. The capital began buzzing with speculation that Hajj had been assassinated in retaliation for his role as the operational commander of the army's bloody three-month battle with an armed Islamic group last summer. In May, Fatah al-Islam -- a foreign jihadist group inspired by al-Qaeda, led by veterans of the struggle in Iraq and made up mostly of Saudis, Syrians and even some Lebanese -- ensconced itself on the outskirts of Nahr al-Bared, a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon,… more

Nir Rosen's Book Reviewed in Journal of Third World Studies

Communications — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 07:19:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Nir Rosen's work of freelance political journalism is instructive both as a first-hand account of a post-war society in crisis, and as a cautionary document of the distinction between systematic social science and the recitation of current events. The book consists of seven chapters and an afterword covering a one-and-a half-year period following the invasion of Iraq, which respectively addresses I ), the ascendancy of religious radicalism and the marginalization of moderate voices, 2), the popular response to the U.S. occupation, 3), the impact of the Coalition counterinsurgency and policing strategies, 4), the rise of sectarian strife, 5), the U.S. counterterrorist campaign and resistance in Fallujah, 6), the activities and influence of foreign mujahideen, 7), the first post-war parliamentary elections, and 8), current conditions and future prospects. It also includes a "Cast of Characters", or listing of major Iraqi and regional figures, and a useful glossary of Arabic and other relevant terms. At the outset, the author places the removal of Saddam Hussein by U.S. forces in March-April 2003 into stark historical context: since the founding of the Iraqi republic in Karim-Abdel Qassim's July Revolution of 1958, no transfer of political power in that country has occurred without violence (p. I ). In the pages that follow, he presents a harrowing report of the endemic instability and uncertainty (known in Arabic asfaudha, or chaos) that persists outside of the Coalition-sponsored administrative core (i.e., the Green Zone), which separates the transitional government from the disordered hinterland and urban environs where much of the population resides.

Most importantly, he relies upon direct encounters with a diverse series of individuals and groups in order to demonstrate the fundamental lack of consensus among the Iraqi citizenry regarding both the legitimacy of the U.S. invasion, and the post-war political environment (pp. 2-4). Among the most significant developments that Rosen witnessed was the rapid and intense mobilization by Iraqi Shi'a that took place in the weeks immediately following the fall of the Ba'ath regime (pp. 10-13)....

For the complete book review, please visit The Journal of Third World Studies website. Nir Rosen is a Fellow with New America Foundation. To learn more about In the Belly of the Green Bird, please click here.

No Going Back

Articles — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 10:29:00 -0400

“You have now entered Iraq,” my taxi driver joked. We had in fact just entered Sayida Zeinab, a neighborhood on the outskirts of Damascus. This shrine city, long a destination for Shia pilgrims, had become home to an estimated one million Iraqis seeking refuge in Syria. “Everybody is Iraqi,” laughed another driver after several people he had asked for directions replied in Iraqi Arabic that they did not know. Indeed, walking through the alleys of Sayida Zeinab I felt as though I were in Iraq, except it was safe. After nearly three years in the war-torn country, I had… more

CNN Interviews Nir Rosen on Iraq and Peter Bergen on Pakistan

Communications — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 08:23:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Interview with Nir Rosen on Iraq:

...TOM FOREMAN, CNN ANCHOR: So Nir, we keep hearing reports, though, nonetheless out of Baghdad. People saying that give us time, we are trying to get this government worked out. We are going to make some progress. Do you see any way that can happen?

NIR ROSEN: No. This has been the case for the past would two years at least. There is no hope. There is no government. Neither side is interested in compromise and why should they? The Shias control Baghdad. They have removed the Sunnis from Baghdad, from Iraq's political future.

FOREMAN: What's going to change that if anything?

ROSEN: Nothing is going to change that. The Shias have actually expelled most of the Sunnis from Baghdad. It went from being a majority Sunni city. Now it is a majority Shia city. The last few pockets of Sunnis are slowly being purged by the police and the Mehdi army. It's now irrevocably a Shia city and Sunnis are just out. Unfortunately, Iraq has been completely remade and it is time to be honest. It is time for the American leaders to be honest and American military to be honest with their people. There can be no reconciliation. This does - the latest show we had a few days ago where they brought a few leaders together and pretended like they were going to reconcile, the Sunnis are still out of the government and they remain so and why should they be? They have been expelled from Iraq. The majority of the three million refugees that we have from the region, from Iraq are Sunni. The majority being internally displaced are Sunni. Of course, whatever agreement were to be reached, parliament would never ratify it anyway...

***

Interview with Peter Bergen on Pakisan:

...FOREMAN: We've said before, the question of whether Pakistan descends into anarchy is an important question, and it is important for a lot of reasons. But we only need one. It has got nuclear weapons and an election coming up. So let's get a sense of who might be playing. Pervez Musharraf is one of the people. The prime minister and he's the head of the military. He is facing opposition from all sides.

Now it appears, however, that Musharraf might make a deal with two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the head of the largest opposition party. Plus, the Pakistani Supreme Court just ruled that this man, the man Musharraf ousted in a bloodless coup, Nawaz Sharif can return and compete in the upcoming elections.

Sharif has put together an alliance of smaller opposition parties. So now that we know who the players are, let's get an idea of who might be winning the game. CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, a fellow at the New American Foundation, joins me right here in Washington, D.C., to offer his many insights. As does Akbar Ahmed, once Pakstan's ambassador to the United Kingdom, and now a professor at American University.

So, Akbar, we start with you. Is there a sense of any one of these three having an advantage at this point?

AKBAR AHMED, FMR. PAKISTAN AMB. TO U.K.: At this point, I would say the focus is entirely upon Benazir Bhutto and President Musharraf because of their negotiations. There also you see a dynamic power oozing out of President Musharraf, and Benazir seeming to be more and more confident every day. Very charismatic now.

But there is a third player, which you pointed out, and that is Nawaz Sharif. He does have a power base, especially in the Punjab, which is what matters, because the army is based in the Punjab, the politics of Pakistan in the Punjab, and the economy of Pakistan in the Punjab. Now if he gets back to Pakistan in the next 10 days, which is what he's promising to do, you could have an upsetting of the apple cart that Benazir and Musharraf are setting up. And the problem is none of them trust each other. There is a bad history between all three.

FOREMAN: So, Peter, a quick sketch. What are the problems facing the next leader of this country?

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I mean, there are many. I mean, first out, obviously the tribal areas where the Taliban has just captured 100 Pakistani soldiers in the last 24 hours. Also where al Qaeda is headquartered, planning attacks both in Britain and in the United States from there.

I mean, that 's the number one problem. But there are other problems. I mean, Pakistan is a very large country with a population of something like 180 million. You mentioned the nuclear weapons issue. There is a sizable militant Islamist movement. Although it is not as large as some people may believe it is. That is something that any future leader of Pakistan has to contend with...

These excerpts are from CNN's "This Week at War." For the complete transcript, please follow this link.

Salon.com Quotes Nir Rosen on Iraq

Communications — Wed, 22 Aug 2007 07:00:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Carl Levin, probably the most influential Senate Democrat on Iraq policy, just returned from a "visit to Iraq." In a joint statement with GOP Sen. John Warner, he pronounced that "the military aspects of President Bush's new strategy in Iraq, as articulated by him on January 10, 2007, appear to have produced some credible and positive results."

While expressing various "concerns," they particularly hailed "the continuing improvement in the ability and willingness of the Iraqi Army to conduct combat operations against the insurgents." Predictably, war supporters on Fox News and elsewhere wasted no time in hauling out the "even-Carl-Levin-admits-we're-winning" claim.

The "trip to Iraq" which Levin and Warner took was so short and so controlled that it makes the Pollack/O'Hanlon jaunt look like a full tour of combat duty. "We completed a very productive two-day visit to Iraq," they said, adding that they spent the whole "two days" meeting with U.S. military commanders (including Gen. Petraeus) at "forward operating bases," as well as with Iraqi politicians. And, you see, they "came to Iraq to assess the progress being achieved by 'the surge.'"

All of that is fine; Senators ought to meet with U.S. military commanders and hear their war reports. And melodramatic, highly controlled trips to war zones is how politicians (and think tank "scholars") behave. That's not new.

But Levin has not -- as his joint statement claimed and media reports recite -- "seen indications that the surge of additional brigades to Baghdad and its immediate vicinity and the revitalized counter-insurgency strategy being employed have produced tangible results in making several areas of the capital more secure." It is patently inaccurate to claim that Levin "saw" anything meaningful. Rather, he simply heard claims voiced by U.S. military officials about U.S. military progress and Iraqi troop improvement -- claims the U.S. military has been making for four straight years -- and he is now repeating those claims.

The idea that Iraq military forces are improving is, by all accounts, absurd. As Nir Rosen pointed out in an in an excellent interview with the always superb Amy Goodman, "the Mahdi Army basically controls the police and the Iraqi army," and the "army" generally is little more than a sectarian force in most parts of the country...

For the complete article, please visit Salon.com.

Nir Rosen Interviews with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now!

Communications — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 03:33:00 -0400

New America in the News:

AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk further about the refugee crisis? Again, lay out the numbers that we’re talking about inside Iraq and outside.

NIR ROSEN: Outside Iraq, we’re approaching three million refugees who have left since 2003. There were, of course, refugees who left before then, due to Saddam and other factors. Inside, I think you have a similar number of internally displaced Iraqis fleeing their homes in mixed areas and going to more homogenous areas. Sunnis from Basra are heading to Sunni neighborhoods, Baghdad, or all the way up to Kurdistan. Shias from Diyala province are going to safer areas for Shias. Kurds from Mosul going up to Kurdistan, as well. And a family like the one we just saw on the show is never going to go back to their home again, actually, it seems.

AMY GOODMAN: Why?

NIR ROSEN: Iraq has been changed irrevocably, I think. I don’t think Iraq even -- you can say it exists anymore. There has been a very effective, systematic ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from Baghdad, of Shias -- from areas that are now mostly Shia. But the Sunnis especially have been a target, as have mixed families like the one we just saw. With a name like Omar, he’s distinctly Sunni -- it’s a very Sunni name. You can be executed for having the name Omar alone. And Baghdad is now firmly in the hands of sectarian Shiite militias, and they’re never going to let it go.

AMY GOODMAN: What do you think of Senator Levin calling for the Maliki and the whole government to disband?

NIR ROSEN: Well, it’s stupid for several reasons. First of all, the Iraqi government doesn’t matter. It has no power. And it doesn’t matter who you put in there. He’s not going to have any power. Baghdad doesn’t really matter, except for Baghdad. Baghdad used to be the most important city in Iraq, and whoever controlled Baghdad controlled Iraq. These days, you have a collection of city states: Mosul, Basra, Baghdad, Kirkuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyah. Each one is virtually independent, and they have their own warlords and their own militias. And what happens in Baghdad makes no difference. So that’s the first point. Second of all, who can he put in instead? What does he think he’s going to put in? Allawi or some secular candidate? There was a democratic election, and the majority of Iraqis selected the sectarian Shiite group Dawa, Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution, the Sadr Movement. These are movements that are popular among the majority of Shias, who are the majority of Iraq. So it doesn’t matter who you put in there. And people in the Green Zone have never had any power. Americans, whether in the government or journalists, have been focused on the Green Zone from the beginning of the war, and it’s never really mattered. It’s been who has power on the street, the various different militias, depending on where you are -- Sunni, Shia, tribal, religious, criminal. So it just reflects the same misunderstanding of Iraqi politics. The government doesn’t do anything, doesn’t provide any services, whether security, electricity, health or otherwise. Various militias control various ministries, and they use it as their fiefdoms. Ministries attack other ministries

AMY GOODMAN: Which is the most powerful militia?

NIR ROSEN: Well, the various Shia ones, such as the Mahdi Army, the Badr Corps, the police, the Iraqi police, the Iraqi army. Of course, the American army is also another militia, and it’s a very powerful militia in Iraq -- maybe not the most powerful. But the Mahdi Army basically controls the police and the Iraqi army. Of course, in the north the police are more in the hands of various Kurdish militias, and the army is in the hands of Kurdish militias. So it sort of depends where you are...

For the complete interview, please click on the link below or visit Democracy Now!'s web site.

Cox News Service Quotes Nir Rosen on Iraqi Refugees, Jordan

Communications — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 11:49:00 -0400

New America in the News:

WASHINGTON - Before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Ken Bacon was a lonely voice calling on White House policymakers to consider the possibility of a major refugee crisis as Iraqis sought sanctuary from the war.

For three years, Bacon, president of Refugees International, a Washington-based advocacy group, was proved wrong. In fact, about 300,000 Iraqi refugees returned home after the regime of Saddam Hussein was toppled.

The tide began to reverse, however, after Sunni insurgents bombed a Shiite holy shrine 17 months ago in the city of Samarra, triggering a rise in sectarian bloodshed and complicating U.S. efforts in Iraq.

Since then, an estimated 2 million Iraqis have fled the country, and 800,000 more have left their homes for other parts of Iraq...

Most of the 2 million Iraqis who have left the country are in neighboring Jordan or Syria, countries whose social, health and security services threaten to be overwhelmed by the surge in Iraqis.

"Jordan is in a very fragile situation right now," said Nir Rosen, an Iraq expert with the New America Foundation, a Washington research and advocacy outfit...

For the complete article, please visit the Cox News Service website.

Voice of America Interviews Nir Rosen on Iraqi Exodus

Communications — Fri, 06 Jul 2007 13:01:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The United Nations estimates there are now more than four million Iraqis who are either internally displaced or have fled the violence in their homeland to become refugees, mostly in neighboring states. Middle East analysts say the crisis is continuing to grow and is straining services in Syria and Jordan, where most of the refugees now live. VOA correspondent Meredith Buel has details in this background report from Washington.

The United Nations says the magnitude of the crisis is staggering. More than two million Iraqis are believed to be displaced inside the country, and another 2.2 million are refugees in other nations.

About 1.4 million refugees now live in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan, 80,000 in Egypt and about 200,000 in Persian Gulf countries...

The U.N. says the current exodus of Iraqis is the largest long-term population movement in the Middle East since the displacement of Palestinians following the creation of Israel in 1948.

Middle East analyst Nir Rosen, a fellow at the New America Foundation, says the millions of displaced Iraqis are likely to further destabilize the region.

"You will hear Iraqis say we are being treated like Palestinians," said Rosen. "We are the new Palestinians. I believe in years to come we will see them too becoming more organized, mobilized and indeed militarized and I think the Iraq conflict will become the Middle East conflict quite soon..."

For the complete article, please visit the Voice of America website.

UPI Quotes Nir Rosen on Iraqi Refugees

Communications — Fri, 06 Jul 2007 08:04:00 -0400

New America in the News:

WASHINGTON, July 6 (UPI) -- The displacement of Iraqi refugees -- close to 4 million -- represents the most serious crisis involving population movements in the Middle East since the exodus of Palestinians in 1948, when fleeing the creation of the state of Israel, hundreds of thousands established themselves in decrepit refugee camps in Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, as well as in Gaza and in the West Bank.

Yet despite their numbers, the Iraqis remain "an invisible refugee crisis," Ken Bacon, president of Refugees International, said at a Washington conference earlier this week. Roughly half of the refugees fled to safer areas within Iraq; the other half went mainly to Syria and Jordan.

The best way to stop Iraqis from fleeing is to create a safe and stable Iraq, which has been the government's main focus for the last few years...The short-term goal is to relieve the burden of those and other countries and prevent them from sending Iraqi refugees home...

The long-term goal is to avoid having another refugee population that can destabilize the Middle East. "When we think of the Iraqi refugee crisis, we should consider it the way people in the region do: through the prism of the Palestinian refugee crisis," Nir Rosen of the New America Foundation said at the news conference. After the Israeli-Arab conflict in 1948, many Palestinians found refuge in the region. In 2005, 4.4 million Palestinians were registered as refugees, according to U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.

The majority of the refugees are Sunni, Rosen said, and "Syria has been the most generous by far in terms of accepting refugees and also in granting them rights." Until recently, Iraqis got the same healthcare as Syrians and their children could go to school for free, he said, but now classes are overcrowded and "schools are exploding..."

For the complete article, please visit the United Press International website.

CNN Interviews Nir Rosen on Middle East Tensions, U.S. Role

Communications — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 10:31:00 -0400

New America in the News:

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Seeking to ease tensions in the Middle East, the Bush administration is reaching out to a new Palestinian government, while at the same time trying to isolate the more radical Palestinian factions of Hamas. But is it the best strategy for a lasting peace? Nir Rosen has written extensively on the Middle East and is a fellow at the New America Foundation. He joins us now from our Washington bureau.

So, Nir, nobody ever imagined that the Palestinians would break down into two competing statelets. But the U.S. policy in bucking up Mahmoud Abbas and at the same time trying to isolate Hamas, could that back fire?

NIR ROSEN, JOURNALIST: Well, it already did. We created a civil war. This is actually outrageous. Ongoing U.N. envoy to the Middle East peace process, Alvaro De Soto, himself accused the U.S. of fomenting a civil war by training, funding and arming Fatah thugs and inserting them into Gaza to destabilize the Hamas government.

We never gave them a chance. They were democratically elected in an election that was widely recognized as free and fair, even by former President Jimmy Carter.

And then the U.S., along with Israel, Jordan and Egypt trained these gangs and actually put them in Gaza to overthrow the Hamas government. And, of course, it's actually backfired and Fatah was overthrown. But all you're going to do is isolate and further radicalize Hamas.

And so when you say that the U.S. is seeking to ease tensions in the Middle East, I disagree with you. These are tensions that the U.S. actually created in the Middle East.

ROBERTS: Nir, I mean what are you talking about, we have Fatah thugs being sent into the country to wage war with Hamas?

ROSEN: Well, they were trained by the U.S. General Dayton (ph), our envoy to the peace process, was responsible for a program, along with Elliot Abrams (ph), the deputy national security adviser for the Middle East, and they actually trained Fatah in the West Banks. The Jordanian special forces created the Fatah bada (ph) brigade. The Egyptians, as well, trained Fatah in Egypt. The United Arab Emirates actually sent money and arms. And then they were allowed to enter Gaza and then began to attack Hamas. I mean this was an existential threat to a democratically elected government. What we've done is overthrow a government that was elected. The U.S. . . .

ROBERTS: And, Nir, what could the effects of that be? Could it be that Hamas and Gaza gets pushed closer to Iran? I mean could Israel soon see an Iranian proxy on its southern border?

ROSEN: Well, not very likely. The role of Iran is very exaggerated. And Iran supports more the Islamic Jihad movement than is Hamas. And Iran isn't contiguous with Gaza. So there isn't much it can do. It can send a little bit of money. And don't forget that Hamas is a Sunni/Muslim brotherhood movement.

And actually that's part of the problem. Hamas is a Muslim brotherhood movement. Egypt and Jordan both have very strong Muslim brotherhood opposition parties and they're terrified of seeing a successful Muslim brotherhood model in the Middle East. So they've also contributed to this overthrow. But I wouldn't worry about Iran.

ROBERTS: All right. Should the United States have engaged Hamas? I mean was Hamas willing to listen?

ROSEN: Certainly. I think the U.S. wasn't willing to listen. The people of the Middle East, and Palestinian in particular, are overwhelmingly in support of resistance to the occupation that persists. Israel has doubled the amount of illegal settlers in the occupied territories since the peace accords were signed. Israel has killed over 300 civilians in Gaza since it withdrew from Gaza.

We're not listening. Hamas won the elections. And they've made statements to the effect that they are willing to recognize Israel. Israel isn't willing to recognize Palestine...

For the complete transcript, please visit the CNN website.

Security Contractors: Riding Shotgun With Our Shadow Army In Iraq

Articles — Thu, 31 May 2007 23:02:00 -0400

Evening in Erbil, Kurdistan, what passes for an oasis of peace in Iraq. It’s March 2006, and I’m waiting for a ride down to Baghdad along one of the world’s most dangerous roads, a six-hour drive through the Sunni Triangle. A few years ago, I would have taken a taxi, but now the insurgents run roadblocks looking for targets -- soldiers, contractors, journalists. I can’t rely on the Iraqi police, who are as likely to turn me over to insurgents for money as to be insurgents themselves. And then there are the improvised explosive devices, hidden in rubbish, wreckage, dead… more

What Bremer Got Wrong in Iraq

Articles — Wed, 16 May 2007 12:29:00 -0400

I arrived in Iraq before L. Paul Bremer arrived in May 2003 and stayed on long after his ignominious and furtive departure in June 2004 -- long enough to see the tragic consequences of his policies in Iraq. So I was disappointed by the indignant lack of repentance on full display in his Outlook article on Sunday.

In it, the former head of the Coalition Provisional Authority argues that he "was absolutely right to strip away the apparatus of a particularly odious tyranny," including the Baath Party and the Iraqi army. He complains about "critics who’ve never spent time in Iraq"… more

The Exodus: An Account of the Iraq Refugee Crisis

Communications — Mon, 14 May 2007 09:15:00 -0400

A New America Event
05/14/2007 - 12:15pm

While the public gaze is fixated on the reasons for and success of the Iraq war, few policy analysts, commentators, and journalists are paying attention to the largest refugee problem in the Middle East since 1948. New America Foundation Fellow Nir Rosen -- internationally recognized for his groundbreaking journalism on Iraq since the beginning of the war in April of 2003 -- presented his piece, titled "The Flight from Iraq," which was the cover story in the May 13, 2007, New York Times Magazine.

The figures are startling -- nearly 2 million Iraqis have fled Iraq for neighboring countries and another 1.9 million Iraqis have been internally displaced amounting to roughly 15% of the Iraqi population abandoning their homes. Meanwhile, since 2003, the United States has only allowed in 466 Iraqis. Compounding the damage to Iraq, the greater issue of concern is the destabilizing effects this will have on Iraq's neighbors who have absorbed both the refuges and the political and economic baggage that accompany them. This all leads Rosen to contend that the spillover from the Iraq war has already transformed the Iraq War into a regional conflict.

At this New America event, Nir Rosen relayed accounts of the refugee crisis, whose effects are just beginning to be felt and gather attention, and the challenges it poses for the United States and the entire Middle East region. A discussion moderated by American Strategy Program Director Steve Clemons followed Rosen's presentation.

The Flight from Iraq

adminn — Sun, 13 May 2007 10:39:00 -0400

I. Roads to Damascus

At a meeting in mid-April in Geneva, held by António Guterres, the United Nations high commissioner for refugees, the numbers presented confirmed what had long been suspected: the collapse of Iraq had created a refugee crisis, and that crisis was threatening to precipitate the collapse of the region. The numbers dwarfed anything that the Middle East had seen since the dislocations brought on by the establishment of Israel in 1948. In Syria, there were estimated to be 1.2 million Iraqi refugees. There were another 750,000 in Jordan, 100,000 in Egypt, 54,000 in Iran, 40,000 in Lebanon… more