Rajan Menon: All Publications, Events and Press

Reorienting Japan

Ron Tang — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:25:00 -0400

Of all the countries to emerge from the wreckage of the Second World War, perhaps none overcame post-war adversity quite as successfully as Japan. By the time the country surrendered in 1945, it was in dire straits. It had lost some 2.8 million people during the war, 3.8% of its 1939 population. Thousands more were so severely maimed or ill that they would never resume productive lives. The once-prosperous Japanese economy was in ruins, and virtually everything the country needed to recover traversed long, vulnerable sea… more

Rajan Menon in the Kansas City Star | 'Fear of diseases, Competition Drive Global Concerns of U.S. Beef'

Communications — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 15:34:00 -0400

New America in the News:

With many South Koreans already hostile to Washington over trade policies and the unease over the fact that Korean forces would fall under U.S. command in a war with North Korea, analysts say the country was especially receptive to fears about American beef.

“There’s a sense there that Korea is subordinate. They don’t like the U.S. military presence,” said Rajan Menon of the New America Foundation think tank. “That changes how they see things...” LINK

Steve Coll and Rajan Menon in IPS News | 'U.S. Reactions to Pakistani Election Results Are Mixed'

Communications — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 17:40:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Pakistan: U.S. Reactions to Pakistani Election Results Are Mixed (Inter Press Service News)

..."[The Islamist parties] have been replaced by secular Pashtun nationalist parties who are hostile to the Taliban and who, at a minimum, will not allow the institutions of these provincial governments to be used by collaborators of the Taliban," Steve Coll, a South Asia expert and president of the New America Foundation, told an interviewer on public television Tuesday.

..."There is this notion that if a coalition can be stitched together, this will strengthen the war on terror," said Rajan Menon, a South Asia expert at Lehigh University. "It will not, because the war has very, very little support among Pakistanis, regardless of social class, ethnic background, or religious commitment who feel that it has only spread the violence without translating into any tangible benefit for average Pakistanis.

"If you have a democratic government headed by the PPP or Sharif, it will have to reflect this popular sentiment," Menon said, noting that Zardari has already called for more dialogue with militant Islamists in the tribal areas than military confrontation.

The Changing of the Guard

Ron Tang — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The view that sometime during this century a “changing of the guard” will occur, when China will displace the United States in much the same way as America did Britain, is widely held. It unites liberals and conservatives, optimists and pessimists, most of whom accept the proposition that “the East is back”, with China leading the pack. The debate is over when the shift will happen and what a world that currently bears an American stamp will look like after China has become Mr. Big.

The main problem with the narrative about China’s challenge to American supremacy (the limits of… more

ABC Radio Australia Interviews Rajan Menon on Pakistan

Communications — Wed, 17 Oct 2007 00:47:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Last week Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto addressed her power-sharing deal with General Pervez Musharraf at her press confrerence. “Many have criticized the deal but it is being done to avoid bloodshed and ensure an orderly transfer of power to the people,” she said.

In an interview with ABC Radio Australia, New America Foundation Fellow Rajan Menon discussed Bhutto’s political situation upon her return to Pakistan after eight years in exile.

Has Bhutto been damaged politically by the amnesty deal struck with General Musharraf?

“Yes… There’s no question that within her own party there was great unease about deal cutting with Musharraf. Not only was there the feeling she might taint herself while doing it, but in effect Musharraf was reeling in on the ropes... she rang the bell ending the round. Needlessly she allowed him a second shot as it were,” said Menon.

For the complete interview with Menon and more on the situation in Pakistan, please follow this link.

It's Pakistan's Choice

Articles — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 09:23:00 -0400

As Pakistan’s president, Pervez Musharraf, struggles to retain power, the United States finds itself in a familiar predicament, one that illustrates a recurring pathology in its foreign policy. Having yet again cast its lot with a strongman, Washington is confounded now that his political position has become precarious. It’s the Anastasio Somoza, shah of Iran, Ferdinand Marcos dynamic in a different guise. Though Musharraf won’t be forced into exile like those friends of Washington, the best he can hope for is to survive the current turmoil with vastly reduced authority.

The Bush administration’s problem in Pakistan is that it has… more

Benazir Bhutto Negotiates a Return to Pakistan's Politics

Articles — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 14:19:00 -0400

Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president and strongman, met his nemesis, the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, in Abu Dhabi on July 27. Only extraordinary political circumstances could have thrown these two together. Musharraf sees Bhutto -- a former prime minister who’s lived in exile since the general brought corruption charges against her -- as emblematic of all that’s wrong with Pakistan’s inept and graft-ridden political parties. Bhutto, for her part, sees him as yet another military usurper, like the one who had her father -- then Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto -- hanged in 1979.

The sad fact is they’re both right. So… more

The U.S. and Turkey: End of an Alliance?

Articles — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 11:52:00 -0400

This article is available only in the attached PDF format. Please download the file below for the full text.

Brian Lehrer Show Interviews Rajan Menon on Pakistan

Communications — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 14:13:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The National Intelligence Estimate released this week revealed the continuing role of Pakistan in the survival of Al Qaeda. Former CIA analyst Paul Pillar and Lehigh University professor of international relations Rajan Menon talk about how US foreign policy could best address the problem.

To listen to this interview, please visit The Brian Lehrer Show website.

Pakistan's Uncertain Future

Articles — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 06:59:00 -0400

After the shootout at Islamabad’s Red Mosque, the pro-democracy demonstrations against Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf in the months preceding it, and Islamists’ rallies and suicide bombings following it, the United States finds itself in a familiar situation, aligned with a general who grabbed power in a coup but has become politically isolated, perhaps beyond repair. The difference is that Pakistan is now a more dangerous place than it was under the three prior military strongmen, Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, and Zia ul-Haq.

Although the upsurge of radical Islam began under Zia (a patron of the Red Mosque) the threat now posed… more

World View: A Darkening In the North

Articles — Mon, 18 Jun 2007 13:21:00 -0400

Iraq’s Kurdish north has offered a heartening contrast to an otherwise blood-soaked country. Its polity works; its economy thrives. But the reports last week of a Turkish military incursion, in pursuit of Kurdish rebels, is an eruption of only one of three steadily deepening problems that could combine to worsen the Bush administration’s predicament in Iraq.

The first is the dispute over Kirkuk, capital of At-Tamim province. The city and its environs contain some 10 billion of Iraq’s 112 billion barrels in proven oil reserves. Saddam Hussein expelled thousands of Kurds as well as Turkomans and Christians from the Kirkuk region… more

Cool It, It's Not a Cold War

Articles — Wed, 06 Jun 2007 10:07:00 -0400

News report these days opine with tiresome regularity that Russia and the United States are headed for a new Cold War. But don’t believe the hype.

It’s true enough that Moscow and Washington have been exchanging cross words. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told the House Armed Services Committee on Feb. 7 that Russia’s military modernization constitutes a threat; the assessment went largely unnoticed here, but not in Moscow.

Things got really nasty three days later. At an international conference in Munich, Germany, with Gates looking on, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin accused the U.S. of riding roughshod over international law and… more

Is the U.S.-Turkey Alliance at an End?

Articles — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 17:57:00 -0400

Turkey and the United States are approaching a critical strategic crossroad that will determine both the shape and the content of their relationship for the foreseeable future. The pressures forcing change on this long-standing alliance -- which has endured since the Truman Doctrine in 1947 -- are powerful. Neither Turkish nor American policymakers seem to grasp the emerging reality that this important friendship is fast eroding; alternatively, they have concluded that the alliance has run its course and are prepared to let it go. Neither side is taking serious remedial measures to recalibrate a vibrant friendship that has served both… more

Marketplace interviews Rajan Menon on Boris Yeltsin, Russia

Communications — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 18:27:00 -0400

New America in the News:

KAI RYSSDAL: Boris Yeltsin first truly got the West's attention in August of 1991, when he jumped up on that tank in front of the Russian Parliament building. But it wasn't until January of the following year that he really turned communism upside-down — when he lifted 75 years of Soviet price controls.

Yeltsin died today at the age of 76. And that shove that he gave Russians toward a market economy is still shaking itself out.

Rajan Menon teaches international affairs at Lehigh University. Professor, good to have you with us.

RAJAN MENON: Thank you.

RYSSDAL: A lot of the headlines today, sir, have pointed out that President Yeltsin introduced free-market reforms to the Russian economy. But if you look around the Russian economy today — with increasing state control over a number of key enterprises, and the oligarchs in the Kremlin and in Moscow — what would your vote be on how things have turned out?

MENON: Well, Yeltsin, no doubt, laid the foundation in many ways for a market economy and a democratic system. But many of the ills that we see in the Russian economic and political system today — the increasing control by the state, corruption, cronyism — all of this can be traced back to Yeltsin. Now the one difference, of course, is that whereas the Russian economy contracted severely under Yeltsin — especially after the currency crisis — under Putin, as you know, there have been year-upon-year of solid economic growth.

RYSSDAL: Why was it, then, that President Yeltsin wasn't able to do more for the Russian economy? Did he just go too fast with his reforms?

MENON: Yes, I think that was part of it. He believed that unleashing market forces would bring stability and prosperity. And when you have a system like the Soviet system, in which prices were set by the state — in which there was virtually no private property — and suddenly transform it, I think you have the foundations for a great deal of chaos. Especially when the institutional requirements for a capitalist system — sanctity of contracts, transparency and the like — were not yet in place...

For the complete interview, please visit the Marketplace website.

The Myth of Russian Resurgence

Articles — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 07:34:00 -0400

According to much recent commentary, Russia is back as a major power. The cover of the July 15, 2006 Economist, a magazine noted for its measured tone and sober assessments featured a phtograph of President Vladimir Putin, with a confident air and stern visage, next to the words "Living with a Strong Russia." New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman quipped that "Russia has gone from the sick man of Europe to the boos man." And in the Holidays (November/December) 2006 issue of The American Interest, Paul Dibb made the case for taking Russia's return seriously. Russia's resurgence, we are… more

Is The United States Losing Turkey?

adminn — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 02:05:00 -0400

On February 5th and 6th, 2007, the Hudson Institute, with support from the Smith Richardson Foundation, convened a small workshop of noted specialists on Turkey, Europe, and international security to assess the state of America’s alliance with Turkey and, more specifically, to ascertain whether the United States risks “losing” Turkey as a long-time and critical ally. The workshop was part of a project directed by Rajan Menon, Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University and Fellow at the New America Foundation. S. Enders Wimbush, Director of… more

The End of Alliances

adminn — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 01:26:00 -0500

Why should the United States cling to military alliances established during the Cold War when the circumstances are now fundamentally different? In The End of Alliances, Rajan Menon makes the bold claim that our alliances in Europe and Asia have become irrelevant to the challenges the United States faces today and are slowly dissolving as a result.The dissolution of our alliances will not, Menon emphasizes, culminate in isolationism. The United States will, and must, be actively involved beyond its borders, but by relying on contingent alignments and on coalitions whose membership will vary depending on the… more

Rajan Menon Discusses Sri Lankan Situation on ABC Radio Australia

Communications — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 08:36:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Sri Lanka's military jets have pounded rebel-held territory in the island's north-east in the wake of one of the deadliest ever suicide bombings in which some 100 people were killed.

The latest fighting has heightened international moves to keep next week's scheduled peace talks on track...

To listen to the interview, please visit ABC Radio Australia's website.

Why Russia Is Really Weak

Articles — Mon, 25 Sep 2006 15:12:00 -0400

News stories about Russia these days follow a predictable theme. The country is resurgent and strong, and the West must adjust to this new reality. But that story line is wrong. Russia is weak and getting weaker.

Take the conventional index of power -- military might. Yes, Moscow is testing advanced missiles systems and talks buoyantly about countering a U.S. antiballistic-missile system with a new generation of warheads that can evade interceptors. Yet note the failure earlier this month of the highly touted Bulava submarine-launched missile. The United States experiences such mishaps, too, of course. But in Russia they are signs… more

Why Do They Hate Us? Ask the Russians

Articles — Sun, 20 Aug 2006 21:19:00 -0400

The Bush administration’s imposition of sanctions on two Russian companies this month for selling military technology to Iran certainly sends the Kremlin a message -- but it won’t be the one the White House has in mind. The penalties will only deepen the hostility that Russia’s political establishment feels toward the United States.

That attitude came through loud and clear in many discussions I had with Russian academics, foreign policy specialists and senior officials during a recent trip to Moscow. President Vladimir V. Putin echoed it in his caustic dismissal of Vice President Dick Cheney’s recent complaint… more