Peter Bergen: All Publications, Events and Press

Does Osama bin Laden Still Matter?

Ron Tang — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 05:57:00 -0400

Does Osama bin Laden matter anymore? You could be forgiven for thinking he doesn't. In recent months, an impressive cast of terrorism experts and counterterrorism officials around the world has coalesced around the notion that al-Qaeda's leader is no longer an active threat to the West. They point out that he has not been able to strike on U.S. soil since 9/11 or in Europe since the London bombings three summers ago. In Iraq, his most successful franchise operation is on the ropes. Across the Muslim world, opinion polls suggest his popularity has faded, and many of his early supporters… more

New America and Terror Free Tomorrow Study in Washington Times editorial| 'Pakistan's Pendulum Swings'

Communications — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 05:17:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...Any Pakistani government must reckon with the fact that its countrymen prefer negotiation over military action against al Qaeda, the Taliban and other terrorist militants. In a recent study by Terror Free Tomorrow and the New America Foundation, more than half of Pakistanis said the United States was to blame for violence inside the country today, as compared to only 8 percent blaming al Qaeda. This is a perception gap of enormous proportions, and a similarly epic public-diplomacy failure... LINK

Peter Bergen in the Washington Independent | 'Al Qaeda Goes Viral'

Communications — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:41:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...al-Suri is as famous to terrorists as he is unknown to the general American public. Lawrence Wright of The New Yorker penned the only substantive American profile of him in 2006, but apparently only had access to portions of "The Call." al-Suri "is highly intelligent, well read, focused, intense, no sense of humor, [and] speaks Arabic and Spanish and French, very little English" said Peter Bergen, a senior fellow at The New America Foundation and author of two influential books about Al Qaeda. In 1997, Bergen became one of the only Western journalists to interview al-Suri. "He seemed like a real intellectual," Bergen said, "but also a man of action..." LINK

Peter Bergen on CNN | 'Pakistan Targets Militant Offensive Near Afghan Border'

Communications — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:47:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...ROBERTS: This morning in Pakistan government forces are pounding Taliban targets for a third day in a row. The offensive comes after militants have been threatening the city of Peshawar.

Peter Bergen is CNN's terrorism analyst. He joins us now from our bureau in Washington. Peter, just how great is the threat to the city of Peshawar and why is it so important strategically?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATL. SECURITY ANALYST: Well, John, as you know, this is the city through which a lot of supplies -- you know, supplying U.S. and NATO troop go through Peshawar on their way to Afghanistan. So the Taliban calculation is that they can put pressure on the city of Peshawar. They can really strangle the supply route to Afghanistan. So that's why it's critically important.

Of course, also, it is a major city in Pakistan. It will be -- if the Taliban can show that they have an ability to control it, it would be a huge victory for them... LINK to transcript

Peter Bergen in Prospect Magazine | 'Is Bin Laden Losing?'

Communications — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 10:44:00 -0400

New America in the News:
In May, two articles by western experts on al Qaeda suggested that Bin Laden's terrorist organisation might be in sharp decline. Both were meticulously researched and received wide attention. Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, research fellows at New York University, and Lawrence Wright of the New Yorker are all authoritative observers of Islamic militancy. The article by the former pair, in the New Republic, focused on disillusion among ex-militants with the strategy adopted over the last ten years by the al Qaeda leadership of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. This discontent, they said, was the result partly of the strategy's failure to achieve its aims and partly the appalling effects of the violence it has entailed, and they linked it to a broader decline in the popularity of al Qaeda and its ideology across both the Islamic world and immigrant communities in the west... LINK

Peter Bergen in Council of Foreign Relations | 'U.S-Pakistan Military Cooperation'

Communications — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 09:10:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...Yet longtime observers of the delicate partnership say events in 2008—like the June air strike and Pakistan's February elections—have increased tensions and strained the alliance. "One could say it's on a downward trajectory," says Shuja Nawaz, a Pakistani journalist and author of Crossed Swords, a history of the Pakistani military. "However, it's not irreconcilable differences in my view. This is something that can be resolved … bearing in mind the talks should come directly from the U.S. to Pakistan—not publicly, and not by Afghanistan." Peter Bergen, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, says Washington can do more to heal the relationship and increase Pakistan's counterterrorism capabilities...

Peter Bergen in CNN.com | 'Hundreds Held in Saudi Terror Swoop'

Communications — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 09:15:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Saudi authorities announced a massive anti-terrorism sweep Wednesday that netted more than 500 members of a purported al Qaeda-linked terrorist cell said to be planning attacks on Saudi targets, including major oil installations...

...The announcement is a reminder that al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia remains a real threat, despite the successes that Saudi authorities have had since their campaign against the group began in 2003, CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen said... LINK

Peter Bergen on CNN Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer | Reporting on Al Qaida in Iraq

Communications — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 10:03:00 -0400

New America in the News:

WOLF BLITZER: ...And also joining us here in Washington, our CNN terrorism analyst, Peter Bergen. His most recent book is entitled "The Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of Al Qaida's Leader."...

Are the United States and its allies losing ground in the war on terror right now?

PETER BERGEN: Well, it depends where you are. I mean, as Ahmed has pointed out, certainly Al Qaida on the Afghan/Pakistan border has resurged, as the national intelligence estimate said in 2007.

Certainly the Taliban are able to conduct these large-scale operations. But if you move to Iraq, where I recently returned from a trip that was sponsored by the Defense Department, it's quite clear Al Qaida in Iraq has scored a series of tremendous goals. It isn't defeated as a terrorist organization, but it's being defeated as an insurgency there.

And in fact, there is some evidence, now, that people within Al Qaida are leaving Iraq for Afghanistan, which they see as a, sort of, more fruitful area of jihad than Iraq itself...LINK

Experts Discuss Results of a New Nationwide Public Opinion Survey of Pakistan before the June 2008 Pakistani By-Elections

Communications — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 13:14:00 -0400

Washington, DC - Released today at the New America Foundation, results from the latest Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll, the third such poll in nine months, shows a dramatic repudiation of Pakistani public support for American policies in the region, and a gain in support for Al Qaeda. Featured speakers at today's New America Foundation event were Ken Ballen, president of the polling organization, Terror Free Tomorrow, Terrorism expert and Schwartz Senior Fellow Peter Bergen, and leading Pakistan analyst, and New America Fellow, Nicholas Schmidle. Leading up to Pakistan's by-elections next week, the report draws three important conclusions:

Pakistanis Strongly Back Negotiations with Al Qaeda and Taliban over Military… more

Pakistan’s Dangerous Turn

Communications — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 01:15:00 -0400

A New America Event
06/20/2008 - 12:15pm

On June 20th the New America Foundation’s American Strategy Program hosted the release of Terror Free Tomorrow’s groundbreaking new surveys of Pakistani public opinion, presented by Terror Free Tomorrow’s President Ken Ballen. New America scholars Peter Bergen and Nicholas Schmidle then provided expert analysis of the data and the detailed the implications of the report for future American policy toward Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan. American Strategy Program Deputy Director Patrick Doherty moderated the discussion.

Peter Bergen zeroed in on the fact that unlike other countries that have suffered extensive terrorism, Pakistanis have not to date conclusively given up support for terrorist groups. He argued that the Pakistani military does not as yet have a coherent counter insurgency strategy, one that combines military action and negotiation with supervised economic aid for poorer, more extreme regions of Pakistan. He also urged that the United States needs to make a long-term commitment to Afghanistan of more soldiers, and should be frank about this commitment with Afghanis and Pakistanis. This, he said, would ensure that people do not feel that the United States will abandon the region, as it did following the Soviet-Afghan war in 1989.

Nicholas Schmidle continued the discussion of insurgency and resistance to both America and the Pakistani government, focusing in part on domestic politics in Pakistan. He described a Pakistan in a state of confusion, with no clear view of who is in charge. He further described Pakistani support for terrorism as a result of the abstract nature of terrorism in the country; while an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis are opposed to suicide bombing, he said, many support Al Qaeda’s agenda of killing Americans, even though Al Qaeda relies on suicide bombings.

Ultimately, Schmidle said, America can repair its image in Pakistan, but will face difficulty in sustaining any gains made without a sustained American economic and potentially military presence in the country.

The future of Pakistan is of vital importance to the United States, both for its influence on the war in Afghanistan and because it possesses nuclear weapons. The data compiled by Terror Free Tomorrow starkly demonstrates both the dire challenges faced by America, as well as the glimmer of hope that through intelligent, pragmatic and concerted effort, America can recapture support in Pakistan and diminish the importance of Al Qaeda and other extremist groups in the region.

-Andrew Lebovich, Research Intern, American Strategy Program

Peter Bergen in Asia Times | 'Al-Qaeda Laid to Rest? Not Just Yet'

Communications — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 16:41:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank ask why former al-Qaeda allies have turned against al-Qaeda's leaders:

To a large extent it is because al-Qaeda and its affiliates have increasingly adopted the doctrine of Takfir, by which they claim the right to decide who is a "true" Muslim. Al-Qaeda's critics know what results from this Takfiri view: first, the radicals deem some Muslims apostates; after that, the radicals start killing them. This fatal progression happened in both Algeria and Egypt in the 1990s. Its is now taking place even more dramatically in Iraq, where al-Qaeda's suicide bombers have killed more than 10,000 Iraqis, most of them targeted simply for being Shi'ite. Recently, al-Qaeda in Iraq has turned its fire on Sunnis who oppose its dictates, a fact not lost on the Islamic world's Sunni majority. LINK

Al Qaeda In Iraq

Ron Tang — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 10:22:00 -0400

In a great journalistic coup, Michael Ware and the CNN team in Iraq have unearthed the largest collection of al Qaeda in Iraq material outside the hands of the US military. What they found in this collection of videos and memos underlines a key aspect of the al Qaeda organization in Iraq; it is highly organized, and not simply a loosely-knit collection of jihadists.

A debate has recently erupted in the pages of Foreign Affairs, the leading American journal of international relations, between two scholars of terrorism. On one side is former CIA case officer, Marc Sageman, the author of Leaderless… more

Peter Bergen in Washington Times | 'Suicide recruits dropping in Iraq'

Communications — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 10:05:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...In the current edition of the New Republic magazine, terrorism experts Paul Cruickshank and Peter Bergen, who has written a biography of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, document what they think is a pronounced shift by Muslims away from al Qaeda.

"Why have clerics and militants once considered allies by Al Qaeda's leaders turned against them?" the two writers ask.

"To a large extent, it is because Al Qaeda and its affiliates have increasingly adopted the doctrine of takfir, by which they claim the right to decide who is a 'true' Muslim," they write.

The authors note that al Qaeda's suicide bombers have killed more than 10,000 Iraqis, most of them targeted simply for being Shi'ite.

"Recently, Al Qaeda in Iraq has turned its fire on Sunnis who oppose its diktats, a fact not lost on the Islamic world's Sunni majority," the authors wrote.

They argue that a significant event in the burgeoning anti-al Qaeda movement was the defection last year of Noman Benotman. A Libyan Muslim extremist, Benotman once worked to overthrow secular Arab governments, but now seeks peace in his home country... LINK

The Unraveling

adminn — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 05:30:00 -0400

Within a few minutes of Noman Benotman's arrival at the Kandahar guest house, Osama bin Laden came to welcome him. The journey from Kabul had been hard, 17 hours in a Toyota pickup truck bumping along what passed as the main highway to southern Afghanistan. It was the summer of 2000, and Benotman, then a leader of a group trying to overthrow the Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi, had been invited by bin Laden to a conference of jihadists from around the Arab world, the first of its kind since Al Qaeda had moved to Afghanistan in 1996. Benotman, the scion of an aristocratic family marginalized by Qaddafi, had known… more

Peter Bergen in National Post | 'Robespierre's Path'

Communications — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:34:00 -0400

New America in the News:

National Post readers eager for good news in the war against terrorism, rejoice. On the pages that follow, authors Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank outline a stunning phenomenon: In the prisons of Cairo and the mosques of London, on the blogosphere and the airwaves of Arabic cable TV channels, militant jihadis are turning away from al-Qaeda's nihilistic agenda. Personal attacks against Osama bin Laden, once taboo, are now common in jihadi circles...

"Encoded in the DNA of apocalyptic jihadist groups like al Qaeda are the seeds of their own long-term destruction," conclude Bergen and Cruickshank. "Their victims are often Muslim civilians; they don't offer a positive vision of the future; [and] they keep expanding their list of enemies." LINK

Peter Bergen on NPR | 'Al-Qaida Faithful Losing Faith?'

Communications — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 09:59:00 -0400

New America in the News:
Al-Qaida is rebuilding and recruiting rapidly, but there is some evidence that middle management is restless. Author and terrorism expert Peter Bergen talks about the growing dissension among bin Laden's followers and the future of terrorist attacks. LINK to audio

Peter Bergen and Fareed Zakaria in the Weekly Standard | 'Win the War?'

Communications — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 11:06:00 -0400

New America in the News:

In the New Republic, Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank told the story of Sheikh Salman al-Awdah, author of an open letter attacking bin Laden and violent jihad that has caused shockwaves across the Muslim world. The sheikhs of Anbar Province in Iraq lead a national, transsectarian movement preparing for provincial elections by the end of the year. Polling shows a widespread decline in support among Muslims for suicide bombing and for bin Laden. Fareed Zakaria observed that the number of Islamist attacks worldwide has declined precipitously since 2004.

How did this happen? It is partly due to Muslim outrage at al Qaeda's killing of its coreligionists. It is partly due to Muslim rejection of al Qaeda's malign interpretation of Islam. For these reasons, Bergen and Cruickshank wrote that "encoded in the DNA of apocalyptic jihadist groups like Al Qaeda are the seeds of their own long-term destruction." LINK

Peter Bergen in The Sunday Times | 'Al-Qaeda: the Cracks Begin to Show'

Communications — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 14:16:00 -0400

New America in the News:

An article published recently in The New Republic, the American journal, by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank – both respected experts on terrorism – outlined a radical change in thinking on Al-Qaeda’s strategy among some of the most respected thinkers in the Islamist world.

For the first time, they reported, men whose previous pronouncements had been used as a justification for jihad were speaking out against it. They were not embracing the West, by any means, but they were questioning the ideological basis upon which Al-Qaeda, as a scattered movement, relies. In the battle for “hearts and minds” the group appeared to have scored an own goal. LINK

Peter Bergen in the New York Times | 'A Not Very Private Feud Over Terrorism'

Communications — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 14:08:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...Preventing attacks planned by small bands of zealots in the garages and basements just off Main Street or the alleys behind Islamic madrasas is more a job for the local police and the F.B.I., working with undercover informants and with authorities abroad. “If it’s a ‘leaderless jihad,’ then I can find something else to do because the threat is over,” said Peter Bergen, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan New America Foundation, who puts himself in Dr. Hoffman’s camp. “Leaderless things don’t produce big outcomes.” LINK

Peter Bergen in the Economist | 'A Radical New Strategy'

Communications — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 15:55:00 -0400

New America in the News:
. . .[R]adical Islam is facing rebellion from within. The same verdict is reached in the New Republic by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, also respected analysts, who chart a swelling tide of former jihadists now critical of al-Qaeda's promiscuous violence. Such critics, they say, have joined mainstream Muslim leaders in “a powerful coalition countering al-Qaeda's ideology”. LINK