Nicholas Schmidle: All Publications, Events and Press

New America and Terror Free Tomorrow Study in Washington Times editorial| 'Pakistan's Pendulum Swings'

Communications — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 05:17:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...Any Pakistani government must reckon with the fact that its countrymen prefer negotiation over military action against al Qaeda, the Taliban and other terrorist militants. In a recent study by Terror Free Tomorrow and the New America Foundation, more than half of Pakistanis said the United States was to blame for violence inside the country today, as compared to only 8 percent blaming al Qaeda. This is a perception gap of enormous proportions, and a similarly epic public-diplomacy failure... LINK

Experts Discuss Results of a New Nationwide Public Opinion Survey of Pakistan before the June 2008 Pakistani By-Elections

Communications — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 13:14:00 -0400

Washington, DC - Released today at the New America Foundation, results from the latest Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll, the third such poll in nine months, shows a dramatic repudiation of Pakistani public support for American policies in the region, and a gain in support for Al Qaeda. Featured speakers at today's New America Foundation event were Ken Ballen, president of the polling organization, Terror Free Tomorrow, Terrorism expert and Schwartz Senior Fellow Peter Bergen, and leading Pakistan analyst, and New America Fellow, Nicholas Schmidle. Leading up to Pakistan's by-elections next week, the report draws three important conclusions:

Pakistanis Strongly Back Negotiations with Al Qaeda and Taliban over Military… more

Pakistan’s Dangerous Turn

Communications — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 01:15:00 -0400

A New America Event
06/20/2008 - 12:15pm

On June 20th the New America Foundation’s American Strategy Program hosted the release of Terror Free Tomorrow’s groundbreaking new surveys of Pakistani public opinion, presented by Terror Free Tomorrow’s President Ken Ballen. New America scholars Peter Bergen and Nicholas Schmidle then provided expert analysis of the data and the detailed the implications of the report for future American policy toward Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan. American Strategy Program Deputy Director Patrick Doherty moderated the discussion.

Peter Bergen zeroed in on the fact that unlike other countries that have suffered extensive terrorism, Pakistanis have not to date conclusively given up support for terrorist groups. He argued that the Pakistani military does not as yet have a coherent counter insurgency strategy, one that combines military action and negotiation with supervised economic aid for poorer, more extreme regions of Pakistan. He also urged that the United States needs to make a long-term commitment to Afghanistan of more soldiers, and should be frank about this commitment with Afghanis and Pakistanis. This, he said, would ensure that people do not feel that the United States will abandon the region, as it did following the Soviet-Afghan war in 1989.

Nicholas Schmidle continued the discussion of insurgency and resistance to both America and the Pakistani government, focusing in part on domestic politics in Pakistan. He described a Pakistan in a state of confusion, with no clear view of who is in charge. He further described Pakistani support for terrorism as a result of the abstract nature of terrorism in the country; while an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis are opposed to suicide bombing, he said, many support Al Qaeda’s agenda of killing Americans, even though Al Qaeda relies on suicide bombings.

Ultimately, Schmidle said, America can repair its image in Pakistan, but will face difficulty in sustaining any gains made without a sustained American economic and potentially military presence in the country.

The future of Pakistan is of vital importance to the United States, both for its influence on the war in Afghanistan and because it possesses nuclear weapons. The data compiled by Terror Free Tomorrow starkly demonstrates both the dire challenges faced by America, as well as the glimmer of hope that through intelligent, pragmatic and concerted effort, America can recapture support in Pakistan and diminish the importance of Al Qaeda and other extremist groups in the region.

-Andrew Lebovich, Research Intern, American Strategy Program

What High Oil Prices Can Do For a Country

Ron Tang — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 07:43:00 -0400

From the outside, Effat College doesn't seem like a bellwether of change. The all-girls school in Jeddah, a port city on the coast of the Red Sea, is rimmed by unscalable high walls and an empty parking lot, resembling the scene of a freshly departed circus in Middle America. In many ways, the college's exterior illustrates conventional misperceptions -- closed, drab, and unwelcoming -- of modern Saudi Arabia. Perhaps the only thing less inviting is the bold, red lettering at the top of the form handed to visitors as they enter the kingdom, which reads: "WARNING: Death to Drug Traffickers."

But… more

Blogging In Support Of the Saudi Government

Ron Tang — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 08:09:00 -0400

In the pre-Internet age, Raed al-Saeed would be punching above his weight. Last month, the 33-year-old Saudi posted a six-minute film on his blog that has thrust him into a millennial debate previously waged by only mullahs and popes: Can religion be evil? "My goal was not to make me or my blog famous," said al-Saeed. His intentions were more subtle: "Don't be brainwashed into judging a religion by one video made by someone who hates that religion." I met al-Saeed last week in the grassy courtyard of a luxury hotel in Riyadh, where we sat around a… more

Like the Wild, Wild West. Plus Al-Qaeda.

Ron Tang — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 07:34:00 -0400

Darra Adam Khel, a small burg in Pakistan's tribal areas, is the quintessential frontier town. Picture Wyatt Earp sashaying down the streets of Tombstone in a turban, and you begin to get the idea. Because Pakistani laws don't apply here, smugglers, gunsmiths and, most recently, the Taliban find Darra, as it's locally known, an optimal place to do business.

Most stores along the main road sell firearms or drugs. In one, freshly pressed slabs of hashish are cured in goat skins, stacked up like a new line of sweaters at the Gap. Next door, customers can walk in, pull a Kalashnikov… more