Just one year ago, the steel import crisis
was the talk of Washington.
The House of Representatives had voted overwhelmingly to impose
quotas on steel imports, and the Senate was preparing to vote
on the same legislation. There was a definite atmosphere of
urgency throughout Washington in responding to the crisis.
Now steel imports are down and U.S. steel companies are showing
some signs of recovery. The atmosphere of urgency seems to have
passed. Unfortunately, the underlying economic problems that
triggered the steel crisis are still very much in evidence.
Perhaps the most dramatic evidence that the steel crisis has
passed in the minds of Washington policy-makers is found in
the recent actions of the administration and the International
Trade Commission.
After urging steel wire rod producers to seek relief under
a U.S. trade statute known as Section 201, the Clinton administration
took five months longer than the law allowed to reach a decision
on the case -- and then granted only limited relief.
For its part, the ITC also seems to have had an inexplicable
change of heart. It voted unanimously to support anti-dumping
cases on hot rolled steel when the quota legislation was pending.
This year, a similar set of cases was being considered on cold-rolled
steel; the ITC voted 5-1 to block anti- dumping actions.
In making its latest decision, the trade commission gave surprising
weight to issues such as the 1998 General Motors strike as a
cause for the steel industry's problems. The same issue was
largely dismissed in their decisions on earlier cases.
The ITC also seemed to largely ignore a law passed by Congress
to remedy past mistakes by the commission. The law directed
the ITC to exclude internal transfers of cold rolled steel for
further processing in examining the cold- rolled steel market.
This seemingly small difference in practice appears to have
had a critical impact upon the decision.
It is difficult to avoid the distinct impression that both
the Clinton administration and the ITC are using recent decisions
to balance support for the U.S. steel industry in 1998 and much
of 1999. In administration officials' minds, at least, the steel
crisis seems to be over.
In fact, although steel imports have trended down, the underlying
problems that sparked the steel crisis are still very much in
evidence.
In 1999, steel imports were down to about $15 billion from
the peak of $19 billion in 1998. The 1999 import levels, however,
were comparable to those at the beginning of the crisis in 1996
and 1997 and were considerably higher than any pre-crisis year.
For comparison, total steel imports in 1999 were up about 50
percent from 1993. The dollar figures also understate the actual
impact of imports on the domestic industry since the volume
of low-priced imports was still higher than the dollar figures
would suggest. Little seems to have changed in 2000.
The sharp rise is all the more surprising since there is almost
universal agreement that the U.S. steel industry is quite competitive
and efficient by global standards. Certainly, the U.S. steel
industry today is much more competitive than it was in the mid-1980s.
The real cause of the steel crisis was not lagging U.S. competitiveness,
but economic crises in Asia and Russia and gross government
interventions in the market in many other countries. The collapse
of markets in Asia and Russia displaced much of the steel production
in those countries into the United States.
Asia is showing signs of recovery, but the recovery is likely
to continue for some time. And during that period Asian countries
will be looking to exports, including steel exports, to finance
the recovery. For its part, Japan is still showing signs of
slipping back into recession, and the prospects for real economic
recovery in Russia seem distant.
The long-term distortions in the industry are at least as serious
as the short-term economic prospects. Collusion among Japanese
steel companies still supports dumping in foreign markets.
Steel industries in countries from Europe to Latin America
were built with heavy government subsidies that threaten to
depress world prices for many years to come. Two of the new
steel powers -- Russia and China -- sport large and increasingly
export-oriented steel industries that were built and remain
largely controlled by their governments.
In short, there simply is no global free market in steel. Even
if the symptoms of the steel crisis have abated somewhat, the
underlying problems remain and will continue to have an impact
on the U.S. steel industry for years to come.
Those in Washington who wish to forget the steel crisis are
sowing the seeds of still worse problems in the future.
Copyright 2000, Journal of Commerce
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