A wave of protesters attempting to disrupt the
annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary
Fund was only the latest sign that the process of globalization
has become immensely controversial.
Despite the many declarations of the inevitability
and desirability of globalization, the actual process of globalization
-- at least as measured through international institutions --
is likely to slow down or stop for the foreseeable future.
The last six months have been particularly rocky
ones for the three main institutions of globalization: the World
Trade Organization, the IMF and the World Bank.
The demonstrators who just turned their efforts toward
disrupting IMF and World Bank meetings earlier this month had
been more successful creating chaos in Seattle last December
during a WTO summit.
More troubling to the institutions than either event,
however, is that the protesters seem to have considerable public
support in the United States and around the world. In the United
States -- arguably the country that has benefited most from the
process of globalization -- a majority of those polled expressed
some sympathy with them.
And the problems are not confined to street theater.
The Seattle WTO meeting also exposed significant schisms that
divide the world's trading countries.
Critics can justifiably wonder just how committed
the European Union and Japan are to new WTO negotiations; it
seems the fear of additional agricultural liberalization, with
accompanying political fallout from their farmers, has cooled
both to the prospect of a major new WTO agreement.
Even larger difficulties are apparent between the
developing world and the developed world. The developing world
has increasingly come to see the WTO as an institution controlled
by developed countries that often works to their detriment.
This argument seems strange because it is expanded
global trade that has allowed countries such as South Korea
to make enormous developmental progress. Whatever the facts,
however, the perception is undeniably widely held. In the end,
it was this breach between the developed and the developing
world that truly brought talks in Seattle to an inconclusive
close.
In the future, this developing-country attitude
seems likely to grow more acute. The widely heralded addition
of China to the WTO is likely to strengthen developing-country
opposition to further trade liberalization.
China has long tried to claim the banner of leader
of the developing world. In the context of the WTO, a boisterous
China that opposes trade liberalization in areas ranging from
protection of intellectual property to new rules on investment
is likely to forcefully assume the leadership role it has sought.
In the next few years, the developed world, led by
the United States and Europe, is likely to have its hands full
merely resisting developing-country efforts to roll back WTO
rules in many areas.
ncreasingly, the IMF and the World Bank are also
under fire.
The protesters on Washington's streets were only
the most visible opposition.
Critics from the right and left have castigated IMF
policy for many years. An increasingly vocal group of economists
and former government officials has called for its outright
scrapping.
A U.S. government commission with the mandate of
reviewing the operations of the IMF and the World Bank supported
writing off debts to the poorest countries, but also called
for a substantial curtailment of IMF operations. The United
States is the largest contributor to both organizations, and
its recommendations are likely to have an impact.
Both the WTO and the IMF have also been hamstrung
by divisive battles over leadership. In part, these conflicts
reflect the deep division between the developed world and the
developing world. The World Bank could face a similar struggle.
It may well be that much of what is popularly called
globalization is now beyond the reach of all governmental organizations.
The actions of private actors, the global Internet and new technologies
promise to further enhance trade and commerce around the globe.
Even if they wanted to stop this progress, governments could
likely do little.
Still, the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank have nurtured
much of the process of globalization. But each of these institutions
seems unlikely to play a leadership role in supporting and encouraging
globalization in the near future.
This could well lead to a global pause in the process
of economic globalization. Though it may sound ominous, such
a pause may actually provide the world with a needed period
of reflection. The pause may give street protesters, governments
of developed and developing countries alike, and the international
institutions themselves time to decide exactly what direction
they want economic globalization to take in the 21st century.
Copyright 2000, Journal of Commerce
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