WMD

Most scholars and policymakers favor stemming the tide of nuclear proliferation, even as they acknowledge the pacifying effects of established nuclear arsenals on great power relations. When it comes to nuclear arsenals, how robust must a country's nuclear arsenal be--how much is enough? Some of the key variables in existing studies - e.g., the nuclear "balance of power" - have been poorly conceived, and the data used to measure the nuclear balance and its effect on policy has come from… more

On April 9th, Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative, hosted James Acton, a Lecturer in the Centre for Science and Security Studies in the Department of War Studies at King's College London for a talk entitled "Nuclear Mind Reading: Iran's Nuclear Intentions and the IAEA". Acton analyzed the IAEA's ability to assess states' intent—as opposed to their capabilities—and then asked what the IAEA means when it announces that an issue is “no longer considered to be… more

The Department of Energy (DOE) plans to undertake an extensive, multi-billion dollar investment in new nuclear weapons facilities and new nuclear warhead designs. The initiative, known as “Complex Transformation,” is unnecessary on strategic and technical grounds, not to mention exorbitantly expensive. The various plans being considered by the DOE have more to do with bailing out the nuclear weapons industry than they do with determining what size complex makes sense in an era of nuclear arms reductions. At a minimum,… more

In 2009, the United States will undertake another Nuclear Posture Review, the third since the end of the Cold War and the second to be mandated by Congress. Although the goal of the nuclear posture review is to "set forth short-term and long-term objectives of United States nuclear weapons policy,” efforts to match our strategic forces to a pragmatic assessment of the international security environment often founder on operational and political realities. What are the likely issues and challenges facing… more

Before China carried out an anti-satellite test in January 2007, some U.S. policy-makers, including NASA Administrator Michael Griffin and the U.S. House China Working Group, advocated greater cooperation between the United States and China in space. After the test, which created a massive cloud of space debris that angered international space professionals and alarmed the American public, increased references to U.S.-China competition and hints of a new space race drowned out calls for cooperation. Using the experience they… more

For many Americans, nuclear weapons bring up old memories and forgotten associations -- the duck and cover drills of the 1950s, President Reagan's exhortations against the "evil empire," and the plot lines of countless straight-to-video political thrillers. It may then come as a surprise that in 2008 the United States is considering a huge new investment in nuclear weapons.

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration is pushing for an estimated $150 billion to develop a new generation of… more

Nuclear terrorism is an urgent threat, but policy debates have been dangerously dominated by caricatured depictions of terrorist groups and potential plots. In his latest book, On Nuclear Terrorism, Michael Levi argues that an obsession with worst-case scenarios and finding perfect defenses has blinded us to important opportunities to confront the nuclear threat.

On Jan. 30, the Nuclear Strategy & Nonproliferation Initiative drew together Levi and New America’s Priscilla Lewis and Jeffrey Lewis to engage in a discussion of… more

This summer’s public revelation that China has constructed two or more new ballistic missile submarines raises a number of strategic, operational and bureaucratic questions about the future of nuclear arsenals held by China and the United States. How China deploys and operates these systems, as well as how the United States responds, will significantly impact the stability of deterrence in the Pacific. The New America Foundation invites you to join five national security scholars as they participate in a… more

In this extra-long (and far from finished) campaign season, we have heard a lot from the candidates. We have seen them in many debates and public forums -- engaging with one another and with the animated snowmen and gun-toting hunters that populated the YouTube debates.

But all this exposure has not resulted in an abundance of substance. Hot issues like immigration and gun control provide juicy sound bites and smoking zingers on both sides but fail to inform voters on the… more

Sure, there were some downsides to the Bush administration foreign policy in 2007 such as [INSERT YOUR FAVORITE EXAMPLE HERE]. But what about the good news?

No New Wars: Iraq and Afghanistan haven't quite reached the "pace of success" (Bush's phrase) that the president would like to see. But give him some credit: he didn't start any new wars in 2007. No "Nucular" attacks: since Dubya can't pronounce the word "nuclear" and can't locate most countries on a map, it's… more