On February 15, 2010, the New America Foundation invited Jean-Pierre Filiu to lecture on the current strength of Al-Qaeda. He began his talk by explaining that for 21 years, Al-Qaeda has survived because it has continually readapted and regenerated itself. Its continual rejuvenation has led Filiu to dub its existence as “the nine lives of Al-Qaeda.” Jean-Pierre Filiu believes, however, that this cycle of regeneration is about to come to an end.

Filiu argued that Al-Qaeda’s original strengths have now become its greatest weaknesses. For example, its capacity to regenerate has long relied on its limited number of members. Having a small but dedicated group allows the organization to move easily from country to country, scattering and regrouping when necessary. Their necessary constant movement of a small group, however, means that Al-Qaeda members are always outsiders to whatever country they visit. Filiu observed that this status has greatly diminished their influence over the citizens and events of their current resident countries.

Similarly, Al-Qaeda has successfully recruited many of its members due to its simplistic and striking message that all Muslims in jihad against the West are good, and all Muslims not in jihad are non-Muslims. According to Filiu, this message has begun to sound, in its simplicity and cruelty, cult-ish and un-Islamic to many in the Middle East. Al-Qaeda’s lack of any religious figures and its heavy usage of the Internet has further contributed to its reputation as a violent cult unconnected to the Islamic faith. Al-Qaeda itself, Filiu stated, has only become more active on the Internet and seems ever more disconnected from the real opinions of the Muslim world.

Filiu ended his talk by reporting on the current status and geography of Al-Qaeda. It is currently located in the Arabian Peninsula, in Iraq, and in the Islamic Maghreb. It functions largely as the “root” that holds together a loose coalition of small jihadi groups in Pakistan. In conclusion, Filiu admitted that Al-Qaeda and its coalitions are still highly dangerous. However, he said, Al-Qaeda today no longer holds territories and is no longer capable of controlling even small sections of cities. Furthemore, it appears that no organization, tribe, or even sub-tribe, is willing to partner or align itself with an increasingly weak Al-Qaeda.

--Kalie Pierce, Research Intern with the American Strategy Program