On November 16th, the New America Foundation hosted a discussion with Ad Melkert, the United Nations Special Representative to the Secretary General for Iraq on the country’s future as Iraq heads into new elections and a drawdown of American forces. The discussion was opened by Patrick Doherty, Deputy Director of the American Strategy Program, and moderated by Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program.
Ad Melkert expressed cautious optimism as to where Iraq is headed based on the Iraqi parliament’s process forming the new election law, calling the ongoing negotiation process a historic occasion. While the UN has been disappointed by the delays, Melkert noted that the process did indeed show an increase in Iraqi ownership and demonstrate changing roles for the US and UN in Iraq towards support rather than decision-making. In this role, the UN is beginning to prepare for the election by organizing voter education and engagement initiatives and coordinating election monitors.
Melkert also called the improved security situation in Iraq over the last two years another reason for cautious optimism. While there are still a substantial number of attacks, most notably on government ministries in August and October, the overall trend of violence has decreased. According to Melkert, the shifting point came when Prime Minister Maliki confronted the insurgency in the South of the county two years ago and started to build more effective Iraqi security forces. Melkert identified a third reason for optimism, as the rapidly increasing investment in Iraq and the business world waking up to opportunity in Iraq’s oil sector. However, he acknowledged that doing business in Iraq is still cumbersome due to corruption and an unclear legal framework for investment in the oil sector, especially in Kurdish regions.
Into the future, the three areas at the top of the UN agenda in Iraqi are to help the Iraqi government develop a framework for negotiations on Kirkuk, support better relations between Iraq and Kuwait, and to help implement economic development packages and budget management that does not revolve around oil prices alone. Melkert also acknowledged the lack of improvement in the daily lives of Iraqis as a key challenge, and hoped the UN could support the government in its efforts to provide better services to its citizens.
Melkert concluded by outlining the scenario after the elections and the first drawdown of American forces as a test for the Iraqi security forces that could end in two ways: either the Iraqi security forces will succeed in providing a minimum level of security, or the insurgency will take advantage of the transition. With these concerns in mind, Melkert still expressed his cautiously optimistic outlook, noting that there are lots of opportunities but far less certainties for Iraq’s future success and stability.
--Alex Taylor, research intern with the American Strategy Program
