On
October 26, Michael Cohen, a Senior Research Fellow of the New America
Foundation examined U.S. strategic interests in Afghanistan with experts Christine
Fair, Alexander Thier, and Jonathan Landay.
Christine
Fair, Assistant Professor at the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University,
began by calling for a Plan B on Afghanistan to address what happens
if we cannot win with the counterinsurgency approach that General McChrystal
has articulated. Fair described herself
as a "COIN skeptic" with regards to Afghanistan, primarily because
there is no credible partner in the Afghan government and that victory in a
counterinsurgency campaign is dependent on the domestic players more than a
foreign army. Fair asked what happens
next if a COIN approach fails and how are we to protect our interests,
especially in terms of regional stability.
In the question and answer section, she continued to highlight the importance
of Pakistan and our limited
space to pressure the Pakistan
military and government to confront extremists, from the Taliban to
Lashkar-e-Taiba. Fair argued that success in Afghanistan
is completely dependent on changing Pakistan's cost-benefit analysis when it
comes to supporting militant groups.
Alexander
Thier, Director for Afghanistan
and Pakistan at the United
States Institute of Peace, described the severe crisis of confidence we face in
Afghanistan. He argued that the international community
made three promises to the Afghan people that we have failed to deliver:
security, basic governance, and a modicum of economic development. Both Afghans and the American public are
increasingly skeptical that we can deliver on those promises and secure U.S. interests in the region by continuing to
fight in Afghanistan.
Thier agreed with Fair that our supreme interests lie in Pakistan, but disagreed with her assertion that
we should not engage in an all out counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan. He pointed out that the Taliban and Al Qaeda
are intricately linked. According to Thier,
in addition to lacking any evidence, it is historically inconsistent to think
that al Qaeda would favor other safe havens and not return to operating out of Afghanistan. To move forward, Thier called for "radical
prioritization" of our efforts in Afghanistan. He called changing the culture of impunity
our highest priority, followed by developing decentralized development initiatives
and governance structures.
Jonathan
Landay, National Security and Intelligence correspondent for McClatchy News,
discussed his observations from the nine weeks he recently spent in Afghanistan. He echoed Senator Kerry's call for a reframed
debate on U.S. options and
pointed out regional stakes that have been left out of the debate in Washington. He argued that it is misleading to
characterize al Qaeda as the chief threat when the stakes in Afghanistan are actually much higher and include
the future stability of Central Asia, American
prestige, and the future of the NATO alliance.
Landay warned especially against the risk of a surge in ethnic conflict
in Afghanistan, especially
following another round of elections, and the danger that militant activities
supported or condoned by Pakistan
against India could set off
a proxy war between India
and Pakistan in Afghanistan.