Afghanistan Eight Years On

On October 26, Michael Cohen, a Senior Research Fellow of the New America Foundation examined U.S. strategic interests in Afghanistan with experts Christine Fair, Alexander Thier, and Jonathan Landay.  

Christine Fair, Assistant Professor at the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University, began by calling for a Plan B on Afghanistan to address what happens if we cannot win with the counterinsurgency approach that General McChrystal has articulated.  Fair described herself as a "COIN skeptic" with regards to Afghanistan, primarily because there is no credible partner in the Afghan government and that victory in a counterinsurgency campaign is dependent on the domestic players more than a foreign army.  Fair asked what happens next if a COIN approach fails and how are we to protect our interests, especially in terms of regional stability.  In the question and answer section, she continued to highlight the importance of Pakistan and our limited space to pressure the Pakistan military and government to confront extremists, from the Taliban to Lashkar-e-Taiba. Fair argued that success in Afghanistan is completely dependent on changing Pakistan's cost-benefit analysis when it comes to supporting militant groups.

Alexander Thier, Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the United States Institute of Peace, described the severe crisis of confidence we face in Afghanistan.  He argued that the international community made three promises to the Afghan people that we have failed to deliver: security, basic governance, and a modicum of economic development.  Both Afghans and the American public are increasingly skeptical that we can deliver on those promises and secure U.S. interests in the region by continuing to fight in Afghanistan. Thier agreed with Fair that our supreme interests lie in Pakistan, but disagreed with her assertion that we should not engage in an all out counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan.  He pointed out that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are intricately linked.  According to Thier, in addition to lacking any evidence, it is historically inconsistent to think that al Qaeda would favor other safe havens and not return to operating out of Afghanistan.  To move forward, Thier called for "radical prioritization" of our efforts in Afghanistan.  He called changing the culture of impunity our highest priority, followed by developing decentralized development initiatives and governance structures.        

Jonathan Landay, National Security and Intelligence correspondent for McClatchy News, discussed his observations from the nine weeks he recently spent in Afghanistan.  He echoed Senator Kerry's call for a reframed debate on U.S. options and pointed out regional stakes that have been left out of the debate in Washington.  He argued that it is misleading to characterize al Qaeda as the chief threat when the stakes in Afghanistan are actually much higher and include the future stability of Central Asia, American prestige, and the future of the NATO alliance.  Landay warned especially against the risk of a surge in ethnic conflict in Afghanistan, especially following another round of elections, and the danger that militant activities supported or condoned by Pakistan against India could set off a proxy war between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan. 

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Participants

featured speakers
Christine Fair
Assistant Professor
Georgetown University

Jonathan Landay
National Security and Intelligence Correspondent
McClatchy News

Alex Thier
Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan
United States Institute of Peace

moderator
Michael A Cohen
Senior Research Fellow
New America Foundation