Pakistan’s Dangerous Turn

On June 20th the New America Foundation’s American Strategy Program hosted the release of Terror Free Tomorrow’s groundbreaking new surveys of Pakistani public opinion, presented by Terror Free Tomorrow’s President Ken Ballen. New America scholars Peter Bergen and Nicholas Schmidle then provided expert analysis of the data and the detailed the implications of the report for future American policy toward Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan. American Strategy Program Deputy Director Patrick Doherty moderated the discussion. An MP3 audio recording can be downloaded below, while video is available at right.

Peter Bergen zeroed in on the fact that unlike other countries that have suffered extensive terrorism, Pakistanis have not to date conclusively given up support for terrorist groups. He argued that the Pakistani military does not as yet have a coherent counter insurgency strategy, one that combines military action and negotiation with supervised economic aid for poorer, more extreme regions of Pakistan. He also urged that the United States needs to make a long-term commitment to Afghanistan of more soldiers, and should be frank about this commitment with Afghanis and Pakistanis. This, he said, would ensure that people do not feel that the United States will abandon the region, as it did following the Soviet-Afghan war in 1989.

Nicholas Schmidle continued the discussion of insurgency and resistance to both America and the Pakistani government, focusing in part on domestic politics in Pakistan. He described a Pakistan in a state of confusion, with no clear view of who is in charge. He further described Pakistani support for terrorism as a result of the abstract nature of terrorism in the country; while an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis are opposed to suicide bombing, he said, many support Al Qaeda’s agenda of killing Americans, even though Al Qaeda relies on suicide bombings.

Ultimately, Schmidle said, America can repair its image in Pakistan, but will face difficulty in sustaining any gains made without a sustained American economic and potentially military presence in the country.

The future of Pakistan is of vital importance to the United States, both for its influence on the war in Afghanistan and because it possesses nuclear weapons. The data compiled by Terror Free Tomorrow starkly demonstrates both the dire challenges faced by America, as well as the glimmer of hope that through intelligent, pragmatic and concerted effort, America can recapture support in Pakistan and diminish the importance of Al Qaeda and other extremist groups in the region.

-Andrew Lebovich, Research Intern, American Strategy Program
See map: Google Maps

Participants

Featured Speakers

• Ken Ballen
  President
  Terror Free Tomorrow

• Peter Bergen
  Schwartz Senior Fellow
  Co-Director, Counter-terrorism and Counter-insurgency Initiative
  New America Foundation

• Nicholas Schmidle
  Fellow, American Strategy Program
  New America Foundation

Moderator

• Patrick C. Doherty
  Deputy Director, American Strategy Program
  New America Foundation

Related Links

• PowerPoint Presentation (PDF, 18 pps.)
• Results from the 2008 Poll (PDF, 92 pps.)
• Summary of the Report (PDF, 13 pps.)