How Many Nukes Does it Take?

Most scholars and policymakers favor stemming the tide of nuclear proliferation, even as they acknowledge the pacifying effects of established nuclear arsenals on great power relations. When it comes to nuclear arsenals, how robust must a country's nuclear arsenal be--how much is enough? Some of the key variables in existing studies - e.g., the nuclear "balance of power" - have been poorly conceived, and the data used to measure the nuclear balance and its effect on policy has come from suspect sources. High quality declassified evidence began to percolate just as the Cold War ended and analysts turned their attention to seemingly more important topics.

With an eye toward future potential problems in the U.S.-China relationship, Keir Lieber and Daryl Press will evaluate four major schools of deterrence theory with some of the newly available evidence from the Cold War. Their preliminary findings indicate that we should not be complacent about the deterrent effects of the short-to-medium term nuclear balance between the U.S. and China.

Join the New America Foundation for an engaging and relevant discussion on nuclear deterrence. The American Strategy Program's Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative is designed to build a new bipartisan consensus around a reduced role for nuclear weapons in U.S. security policy and a renewed emphasis on building international institutions to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
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Participants

Featured Speakers

• Keir Lieber
  Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science
  University of Notre Dame
  Author, War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics over Technology

• Daryl Press
  Associate Professor, Department of Government
  Dartmouth College
  Author, Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats

Moderator

• Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
  Director, Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative
  New America Foundation
  Publisher, ArmsControlWonk.com