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Instant Analysis of New Student Loan Default Report

In Short? Not Good
September 11, 2006

The U.S. Department of Education will report Wednesday that the national student loan default rate jumped 13.3% last year, going from a historic low of 4.5% to 5.1% for the year ending September 2005. Why?

Two key factors are driving an increase in the national student loan default rate.

First, the cost of higher education has been increasing rapidly over the last five years. Tuition at 4-year public colleges rose 56.5% during that time, from an average of $3,508 to $5,491, according to the College Board. When combined with stagnant federal grant aid, college cost increases have created an explosion in student debt. Students now borrow 108% more than they did a decade ago, with two-thirds of four-year students graduating with student loan debt totaling almost $20,000 each, according to the Project on Student Debt.

Second, despite the explosion in debt, in the recent past student loan default rates have gone down because of low interest rates. Fixed consolidation loan interest rates bottomed out at 3.4% in the year covering July 2004 to July 2005. Cohort default rates bottomed out for the corresponding reporting period. But for the year stretching from July 2005 to July 2006, the fixed consolidation loan interest rate went up to 5.3%. Corresponding with that increase in interest rates, we are beginning to see an increase in the student loan default rate.

More danger lurks ahead, because Congress raised interest rates for the year beginning in July 2006 to 6.8% for consolidation loans. Accordingly, we may see an even higher default rate this time next year, because of increased student loan interest rates set by the government. A higher student loan default rate means higher costs to taxpayers, since the government guarantees student loans against default.

Don't be fooled by the spin. Wednesday's college loan default rate numbers are not good news for students or taxpayers.

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Comments

Default Rates are misleading to begin with.

The Default rates that are being discussed here are hugely misleading, and do not capture even close to all the defaults that actually occur. What the D. of Ed. counts is so called "cohort" default rates, which mean only those loans that defaulted in the fiscal year after the year in which they entered repayment status. Thus, if a lender wished for a defaulted loan not to count towards their default rate, they need only keep the loan active for as long as it takes for the fiscal year to expire, then default the borrower then, thereby keeping outside of the 'cohort' default window. We should ask the Dept. Of Ed, or IG to determine how the true default rate has been doing lately. I have a hunch, but want to see for myself.

Student loan default rates

The increase in student loan default rates is just the tip of the approaching iceberg.  Banks' vicious, and greedy lending practices have placed millions of students in serious debt.  On top of this, recent graduates entering the job market face exhorbinant housing costs, and relatively low paying jobs leaving them unable to re-pay their loans.

It's time this country provides a free education for all those who seek it.  A practice which is common in Europe.

Student Loans are a trick to all students

We all are told to get a college education so that we will be able to earn a self sufficient wage, and take care of our family once we are grown.

We are not told that if we get student loans that no wage is going to be self sufficient and our families will barely get taken care of, but this is how it is for me.  I am a single mother who makes at the most $32000 a year and I can barely afford to buy groceries, or give my child the little things she needs like clothing, and shelter.

I believe something first needs to be done about basing monthly payment on Gross income.  If I took home my Gross income it may not be too hard to miss that $300 a month.

American people seem to be losing any chance we thought we might have.  The American Dream is only for the people born Rich.

Student Loans, etc.

The problem with the student loan "situation" is simply that too many people have chosen to ignore the fact that taxpayers have loaned them money and that they have an obligation to pay it back. Worse, the government continues to hand out money without making any kind of a reasonable effort to recover money from deadbeats who ignore their obligations to pay. Seemingly bright people, at least bright enough to be considered college material and who should understand the concepts of borrowing and debt, now feel that they can ignore their obligations to pay up.

Oh, the wailing of liberals who believe that the government and the taxpayer owe them "everything"! It makes me sick!

It is not the fault of the individual taxpayer that "you" have children which you cannot afford and that, in too many cases, you continue to have more children expecting the government to subsidize you. Whatever happened to the concept of planning? Responsible people plan, save and have children when they can afford them. They also do not borrow money and then attempt to dodge repayment.

The concept that individuals can blithely go through life, responsibly or irresponsibly, and that the government will provide them health care, housing, child care, etc. cradle to grave is not historically American. It is the concept of a Socialist state and if that is how you want to live, then why not find yourself a socialist country to live in?

Who is to blame?

I agree with Jim but would like to add that it is my belief that many loans go unpaid because the rise in college tuition far exceeds the income earned for new graduates coming out of school.  It used to be that there was no such thing as taking a loan for college, at least not from the government.  Consequently, colleges had to make tuition somewhat affordable if they wanted to have any student populus.  Once loans became available to everybody "affordability" was taken out of the equation and opened the door for colleges to charge virtually as much as they felt they could get.  Most people focus on today and worry about paying tomorrow, which leads to financial trouble.  College is NOT for those born rich.  I was not born rich and managed to get through 8 years of college.  Now I am paying it back and yes it is a lot per month but my earning potential is greatly enhanced and one day student loans will be a thing of the past for me.

 

Deadbeat

(I am posting this for a friend who is too scared right now to post for himself): I was a kid form a blue-collar family who wanted a better life for myself.  I was smart, made excellent grades, worked hard, but needed to take out a student loan to attend grad school.  At 22 I thought that when I got out of school I would be able to get a great job and pay back my student loan. Optimistic, smart (according to all the entrance exams to top schools i applied to) and young. After graduating I could not find work.  I finally got a job that paid 15/h.  I was struggling to pay off my student loan and survive but wasn't making it.   I got a zero-interest-for-one-year credit card in the mail.   It helped pay for some very basic living expenses while I worked and looked aggressively for a better job.  I thought someone as hard-working as me, with my degree and perseverance would land something good within a year.  I was paying my student loans and of course eventually had to start paying credit cards and I literally was so hungry for a time I was lightheaded on a daily basis.  Then I couldn't afford my apartment because I couldn’t pay for it and the loans.  I deferred my loan payments for a time but still couldn’t find a better paying job that would keep my very humble existence and loans paid for (I lived in one room, no car, ate sparingly but even with such a lifestyle the cost of living is so high I couldn’t make ends meet with the loans.) I filed bankruptcy a couple years ago.  My lawyer didn't know/tell me this but at the time I filed a law was passed saying you can't consolidate your student loans after bankruptcy. After bankruptcy I was told that my loans had been sold to 8 different companies.  Each of these companies would accept no less than $300 a month each (that's $2400 in student loans a month) The situation was overwhelming and seemed completely impossible.  I was suicidal.  They are now about to garnish my wages (a percentage taken from my gross earnings which makes it impossible for me to work and survive-  apparently our government thinks Americans can live on $100 a week), taking all my social security and any tax refund.  I have contemplated leaving the country and still am.  During this time I have met many former students in a similar position.  Either we are all deadbeats or there is something wrong here.  For any big business tycoon in America (e.g. Donald Trump) when he can’t pay back a loan, he sits down with the lender and cuts a deal.  This is because the lender is responsible for giving the loan in the first place and if the lender wants to see any of it’s money from a bad lending decisions, it cuts a deal.  Is it so horribly liberal to ask why business tycoons can do this with lenders, yet America’s students – kids just starting out – have sold their futures down the river?  My only thought these days is that I am just lucky I wasn’t the other kind of kid who was told that by signing up for the military he was protecting his country, only to give his life for an oil war for these same business tycoons.  I was handed a student loan no questions asked, and nothing explained.  I am sorry taxpayers (I too am a taxpayer), but did I murder someone?  Am I a deadbeat?  Or is the economy down the drain (due moslty to our credit chrisis) and is there possibly some predatory lending scheme going on with the banks where the student and taxpayer are taking the fall?I fully take responsibility for taking the loan, it was the biggest mistake of my life.  I wish I had known better, and I wish I had had some guidance, some idea…  Life for young people now isn't anything like life was for you Sir/Mame when you were young, it just isn't.  Do you look at me and see a deadbeat?   I would give my degree and everything I've got for a shot at a future.

Colleges are also to blame

I have a relative who is a professor at a nationally-known university.  According to this individual, nobody at the university paid any attention to the complaints of the students regarding the unceasing annual tuition increase (which were double or more of the inflation rate) UNTIL student loan defaults by graduates of the university became so high that the university was in danger of being listed by the government as ineligible for further student loans.  (The government had previously used this method to make it impossible for phoney trade schools to keep ripping off gullible young people, but as the amounts that students were borrowing kept rising, eventually "respectable" schools started having high default rates.)  In other words, the university didn't care that the loan payments that their graduates faced were disproportionate to the income that they were capable of earning until the whole Ponzi scheme was going to explode on them.  Then they started offering some kind of doofy credit counseling service.  They surely didn't decide to cut back some of the waste and eliminate tuition hikes.

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