Here is some brand new analysis from Washington state results that might shed light on the efficacy of the top two primary, which many are promoting as a good thing for CA. It is especially directed at whether the top two would elect more moderates -- or more extremists? This evidence below suggests it's a bit of a crapshoot, the top two primary could as easily elect more extremists as elect more moderates. 

In taking a look at official WA state election results at http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/Results.aspx? for last year's primary, you can see there are basically four categories of results for the 98 house races and 25 senate races.

In the first category, which has by far the vast majority of races, one candidate (usually an incumbent) is either uncontested or is so far in the lead with anywhere from 53 percent to over 70 percent of the vote and a huge enough lead that it's obvious they will win in the general (November) election as well. That includes 24 races uncontested in the primary, and 3 with only token write-in opposition. The practical impact in those races is no different from what we have now in CA, as I outlined recently in my Los Angeles Times oped.

I'm thinking of suing the state for legislative pay. As a voter. To secure the vote of Republican state senator Abel Maldonado, a holdout whose vote is needed to pass a massive budget compromise bill in California, Democrats are considering Maldonado's demand for three ballot measures, the Sacramento Bee reports. The measures would create an open, or "top two" primary for the state, prohibit legislative pay raises if the budget is in deficit, and prevent lawmakers from receiving salaries if the budget is not passed on time.

Those three measures would be on top of the five other ballot measures required by other aspects of the deal. In all, Californians would have to vote on eight measures that are part of a mega-compromise. None of the measures are simple. They include changes to the state's education funding formula, the reversal of previous ballot initiatives on early childhood education and mental health, a new spending cap for the state, and a plan to borrow against future lottery revenues.

Before I get on the plane tomorrow, here's a few short items that I missed this week.

THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF OPEN PRIMARY: Under Washington state's "top two" open primary law, candidates are permitted to list their own party preference on the ballot. But Democrats, believing that the Republican gubernatorial nominee is obscuring his unpopular party affiliation with a ballot reference to GOP, went to court to demand that the Republican be listed as a Republican.

VOTING OF THE FORECLOSED: In the most important political story of the week not related to the Wall Street bailout, there are signs that voters who lost their homes to foreclosure and haven't changed their address on voter registration documents may be systematically challenged at the polls -- to prevent them from voting -- by Republican operatives.

USDA ADS STOPPED: The U.S. Department of Agriculture had been running ads that seemed designed to oppose Prop. 2, the California ballot initiative to regulate how farm animals are confined. This week, a federal judge told the agency that, as a government agency, it couldn't take sides in a campaign.

Sponsors of an Oregon initiative to establish a "top two" primary, the U.S. Supreme Court-friendly version of the non-partisan or "open" primary, began to turn in signatures Friday.  In a top-two primary, all candidates appear (with party affiliations if their party is formally recognized by the state) on the primary ballot. The top two vote getters advance to the general election. (Ballot Access News, via ballotpedia).

TOO COOL FOR SCHOOL: Here's an important and under-reported story: Nevada's schools will be closed on Election Day in November. That should boost turnout in a swing presidential state. And it also could give a boost to the Nevada teachers' unions, who are attempting to raise gaming taxes to boost education funds. Not having to teach that day will boost turnout. Also, about 800 of the poll workers could be students, says the state's registrar of voters. In related news, a Nevada judge rules that two measures to tax gaming to provide funds for education can remain on the ballot. The judge thinks they make little sense, but says that the voters have the right to decide that for themselves.

AG'S DOMAIN: Some agriculture interests are getting aggressive in opposing Prop 98, one of the two measures on June's California ballot that would put restrictions on eminent domain. The Sacramento Bee says that this represents a divide in the agriculture community, since the California Farm Bureau is one of the initiative's backers. (Prop 98's restrictions include tigher limitations on using condemnation for private purposes and on retn control than its competitor, Prop 99).