The state controller has just made plain that he'll start paying California's bills with IOUs next Thursday if the legislature and governor don't agree on how to fix the $24 billion budget shortfall by then. (This is bad, but not as bad for those receiving the IOUs as it seems. The IOUs must be paid back with 5 percent interest. Your blogger is thinking of asking his bosses at the New America Foundation to pay him in IOUs. How 'bout it, Mr. Coll?).

With the state on the brink, it's not clear how this movie ends. One new narrative was offered by Republican GOP contender Tom Campbell, a former director of finance for the state, during a talk at the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.

According to Joel Fox's report in Fox & Hounds Daily, Campbell suggested a federal judge could end up with huge control over state finances.

Fox reports: "Campbell painted a dark picture of what might happen if the state runs out of cash in July. He told the Chamber audience a likely scenario is that a federal judge might intervene to demand California pay its bills.

Please join us this Saturday morning, May 2, in San Diego for what should be a fascinating discussion about the ballot measures on the May 19 special election. The event runs from 10 to 11:30 a.m. at the San Diego Hall of Champions. (Sports fans out there would be wise to make it a day of California governance and sports). The event is free, but be sure to reserve yourself a seat by signing up here or here. And you can consider this brunch if you like--there will be food.

The panel is headlined by former Congressman and former state finance director Tom Campbell, who has thought as deeply about the state budget as anyone alive. (He has an interesting discussion on tax reform currently running on his web site).  Also on the panel are Chris Reed of the San Diego Union-Tribune, writer of America's Finest Blog; New America senior scholar Mark Paul; and your blogger. The co-sponsors are New America, the Center for Policy Initiatives, and the City Club of San Diego.

Former Congressman and Schwarzenegger finance director Tom Campbell, who is campaigning for governor, has done something that's extraordinary these days: he's answered -- in considerable detail -- questions about how he would govern the state. He did this on his own, serious policy blog. 

Campbell's a Republican (he's the one of the three leading contenders who isn't a Silicon Valley billionaire) and some will cause political problems for him in a primary. And I'd be concerned that his detailed budget prescriptions would make it more difficult for the state to do more on issues such as health care and infrastructure. But his proposals are serious and account for political realities. They smell of leadership. No other candidate -- either Democrat or Republican -- has done this, and the others ought to be embarassed about it. Campbell's answers read as though he wrote them without vetting them with a political consultant. That alone, in this day and age, qualifies as revolutionary.

That's how California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger today characterized opponents of the six measures that were part of last month's budget deal and go before voters in the May 19 special election.

Schwarzenegger made plain in a speech at the Commonwealth Club that, despite sagging approval ratings, he intends to campaign strongly for the package of six measures.

He also revealed a tough political strategy: go negative against opponents of the package and particularly the spending limit and rainy day fund measure, Prop 1A. In the speech, Schwarzenegger depicted those opponents as out of the mainstream, "the far left" (who want to spend) and "the far right." He was not kind. Consider this excerpt:

In a blast at members of his own party, he said: "Those who say that we could balance the budget through spending cuts alone are guilty of political cynicism at its worst. These are not serious people."

That's right, the governor of California effectively declared that much of the Republican establishment, a majority of GOP legislators and the two of the three GOP candidates for governor in 2010 (Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman) "are not serious people." That's a bit much, but their opposition to taxes in this circumstance is certainly unserious. It appears that the third GOP candidate, former Congressman and Schwarzenegger finance director Tom Campbell, has the governor's endorsement. If he wants it.

Widening his lead in the gravitas/ideas primary, former Congressman and current gubernatorial aspirant Tom Campbell has one of the most detailed pieces on the budget you'll read anywhere in today's San Francisco Chronicle. It's refreshing to read an honest, clear-eyed view of the budget from a Republican; Campbell is the furthest thing from the obstructionists in the legislature, to which the answer to every question is: "no new taxes."

Campbell makes the case for a form of spending limit that he championed in 2005. This was a legislative constitutional amendment that he drafted but never went anywhere; Prop 76, which was defeated by voters, had some similarities, but I believe it wasn't what Campbell wanted. Campbell would never quite answer my direct questions about his true feelings about Prop 76, which was championed by his then boss, Gov. Schwarzenegger.

Already, a host of potential candidates are running for California's open governor's chair in 2010. But few of the candidates are offering new ideas or new thinking. The exception is Tom Campbell, the former Congressman and former Schwarzenegger finance director. Let's hope he manages to get a hearing in a Republican field that could include two billionaires -- insurance commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay head Meg Whitman.

For all the attention that billionaires Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman have received as potential Republican candidates for governor in 2010, former Congressman Tom Campbell is the frontrunner in the polls I've seen. And as Poizner and Whitman attempt to build support on the right, Campbell is emphasizing his libertarian beliefs, writing on a blog affiliated with Reason that he opposes Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. He makes a very clear, conservative case for opposing Prop 8. In fact, Campbell's argument is far better than anything I've heard from the No on 8 campaign itself. How about making a TV ad, Tom?

Former Congressman and current UC Berkeley business school dean Tom Campbell, an independent-minded Republican known for his work as Schwarzenegger's budget director and his love of really bad movies, has opened a committee to explore running for California governor in 2010. On the other side of the aisle, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has done the same thing.

These exploratory filings are being closely watched by the dwindling number of reporters who still cover state politics. And while they are important, those of you interested in the 2010 race would do well to keep your eye on a different set of filings: ballot initiative filings at the attorney general's office.