Schwarzenegger

The target of a recall in California is entitled to a 200-word official response. Gov. Schwarzenegger filed his today, in response to a notice of recall advanced by the state's prison guards' union. It reads:

"This recall petition is special interests politics at its worst. It's not about the people of California; it's an intimidation tactic by the prison guards' union to force Governor Schwarzenegger into giving them a bigger contract. The bosses want the same sweetheart deal Governor Davis gave them after $3 million in campaign contributions. When Governor Schwarzenegger ran for office he said if special interests try to push him around, he would push back.

"The Los Angeles Times said this union is 'fooling no one.' The Sacramento Bee called it a 'self-serving grab for power and money.' The San Diego Union-Tribune says it's a 'bullying tactic.' The San Jose Mercury News calls this an attempt to 'pressure' the Governor to 'give away the store like his predecessor.'

"Even Democrat lawmaker Jackie Speier said this union has 'a lock on the Legislature... They telegraph loud and clear: 'If you cross us, we'll take you out.''

"It's offensive that one special interest is using a recall to get more money. California faces a financial crisis and this union's leadership wants $1.3 billion more from taxpayers. Governor Schwarzenegger refuses to be intimidated and will do what's best for California, not a special interest."

Not exactly a fighting veto. Schwarzenegger declared today he would veto the budget -- and expected to be overriden. It's an acknowledgment that he was ultimately irrelevant in the process. He took a few swipes at Republicans, noting -- correctly -- that the "no new taxes" budget is in fact a tax increase in disguise. The budge will be delivered to the governor tomorrow. He will veto, then the Assembly votes on override Thursday.

He has called a press conference for 3 p.m. Pacific, apparently to do just that.

Overwhelming majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents don't want a recall. But the Field Poll is not good news for the governor. He's down to 38 percent job approval, with 70 percent of state voters saying California is on the wrong track. (Who are the 22 percent who think we're on the right track?). And both of his current options -- signing a bad budget, or issuing a veto that could prolong the stalemate -- are unlikely to help his popularity.

If I were Schwarzenegger, I'd want to face the recall vote. The polling shows he's stuck. Unpopular, but not a big enough threat to anyone politically for voters to care about the recall. There's an adjective that describes a politician in this predicament. The word is "irrelevant." Schwarzenegger should pray that the guards go through with the recall--it would give him a chance to make his case for reform again, and to renew his political capital.

That's the news in this thorough examination (from Steven Harmon of Media News)  of the politics of a possible recall of Gov. Schwarzenegger. Leading conservatives Mike Spence and Jon Fleischman don't come out and endorse the recall, but they don't back away from it either. That shows the depth of conservative disappointment with Schwarzenegger, and the real political perils he faces if the prison guards' union spends the money to put a recall question on the ballot.

That said, I agree with Rob Stutzman, the former Schwarzenegger communications director quoted at the end of this story, that a recall vote would be a political opportunity for the governor. It could strengthen him.

Details of the budget deal reached today by legislative Democrats and Republicans have not been officially released, but the leaks have begun. Republicans are saying the budget is a "no new taxes" budget. Of course, that's not the truth.

Tax rates don't increase under this budget, but that doesn't mean the budget doesn't raise taxes. Instead, this budget will rely on borrowing and gimmicks that inevitably force tax increases in the future. In fact, this unbalanced budget will add to the state's debt and debt service costs, which cuts into the amount of the budget that can be spent on actual government services. In the end, people will pay the same tax rates, but they will get less in services. That's right -- less services for the same money. That's a tax increase in disguise.

And if you want to maintain services -- and the public wants to maintain levels of services, eventually taxes will have to be raised to cover this borrowing and the service level. Bottom line: it would be more accurate to call this a "No New Taxes While The Current Republican Lawmakers Are Running For Re-Election" budget.

Here's my LA Times piece arguing that Gov. Schwarzenegger should respond to the prison guards' recall effort -- by embracing the recall vote and using it to rebuild his political capital.

NOTICE OF INTENTION TO CIRCULATE RECALL PETITION

TO THE HONORABLE ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER: Pursuant to the California
Constitution and Section 11020, California Elections Code, the undersigned registered qualified voters of the State of California hereby give notice that we are the proponents of a recall petition ( and that we intend to seek your recall and removal from the office of Governor of the State of California and to demand election of a successor in that office.

The grounds for the recall are as follows:

Catastrophic leadership failings and inept management, including, but not limited to, repeated acts of untrustworthiness, gross fiscal mismanagement jeopardizing funding for schools, infrastructure, public safety and other essential services; reckless borrowing, saddling taxpayers and future generations of Californians with billions of dollars in new debt; breaking your promise to "cut up the credit cards" and oppose new taxes; failure to reform California's correctional system, causing a federal takeover of prison health care and costing taxpayers an estimated $8 billion; using state workers as "scapegoats" for your leadership failure and threatening their rights and financial wellbeing; soliciting and accepting special interest money at levels never before seen in California history'; betraying voter trust and mortgaging our children's future; and leaving California in far worse shape than before your election.

Why would the prison guards' union seek to recall Gov. Schwarzenegger? A spokesman for the union has called Schwarzenegger the worst governor ever. And the union has been fighting him since the beginning of his administration over contract, working conditions, and the union's power in the prisons.

In my reporting today, however, sources inside and outside the union offered a little more context and another explanation for the recall: the internal politics of the union, the California Correctional Peace Offircers Association. Union president Mike Jimenez is running for re-election, and he faces several challengers. They have found plenty to complain about. The union has been working without a contract since 2006, which means no raise for members. Jimenez has drawn criticism from some members for entering into talks with inmate advocates on reforms to the system. One group of dissidents, calling themselves Officers for Change, is sharply critical of Jimenez on its web site. CCPOA's membership is hardline anti-governor. Is the recall threat simply an attempt by Jimenez to win guards' support for his own re-election?

We'll likely hear more about the upcoming union elections in the days ahead.

The governor and his aides are hitting back at the California Correctional Peace Officers Assn. -- the prison guards' union -- for its threat to recall the governor. A union official says the group is beginning the process of gathering 65 signatures on a notice of recall.

 So far, the Schwarzenegger strategy is to accuse the guards of using the recall to seek a contract that the cash-strapped state can't afford. According to the Sacramento Bee, Schwarzenegger said today: "I will not be intimidated by anybody that is demanding more money than the state can afford and that demands deals more than the state is wanting to give. So the prison guard union is not going to intimidate me with their kind of action."

The idea behind such a response is to try to keep the issue narrow--and focused on the prison guards' contract. Schwarzenegger and his team need to prevent others with grievances against the governor -- just about every interest group in the state has been at odds with him at one time or another -- from joining up. This response makes the recall seem narrow and small. It hints at what should be the first battle -- a behind-the-scenes effort by the union to build a coalition in support of a recall, and by the governor to prevent such a coalition from forming.