Schwarzenegger

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess. 

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign  for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor. 

The California Correctional Peace Officers Association had filed a notice of recall against Schwarzenegger and a proposed petition to circulate. (The petition was not approved, and the union had been expected to file a revised petition this week). Now a spokesman for the prison guards' union tells the AP there wasn't much point to the recall. Even it succeeded, Schwarzenegger would be removed from office only for the final lame-duck months of his term.

This is a smart move by the union. The governor, a strong foe of the union, not only would have survived a vote but also might have gained new political capital as a result.

I've spent the past 24 hours in Sacramento. The main piece of scuttlebut, from several sources: that Gov. Schwarzenegger, as part of the special election he's expected to call next year (likely fall), will pursue an initiative that would put in place the health care compromise he reached with then-Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez in late 2006.

This raises all kinds of questions. One is a practical question: how to turn massive legislation into an initiative short enough that signature gatherers won't hurt their backs carrying it around California? Others are: 1. how the initiative might be structured to reduce the budget impact, given the international economic crisis and the state's budget woes. 2. And what kind of counter-initiatives might liberal groups such as the California Nurses Assn. (advocates of single payer) or more conservative groups (who don't like the fees or the mandates in Schwarzenegger's plan) pursue on the same ballot?

Talk about timing. Today is the fifth anniversary of the vote to recall Gray Davis and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger governor. And today, the Secretary of State's office rejected the first petition submitted to recall Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The petition, submitted by the prison guards' union, failed to include Schwarzenegger's official statement in response, as is required. The mistake is a simple one, but somewhat understandable. By keeping the recall petition to one page ,the union may be able to circulate it more easily and inexpensively.

This is not the end of the story. The union now has the right to alter and re-submit its petition.

The LA Times reports: In a letter to the Treasury Secretary, Gov. Schwarzenegger says the state may soon run out of cash without a $7 billion loan.

This post has nothing to do with Gov. Schwarzenegger, but the elements might sound familiar to Californians.

More Democracy, a Germany-based organization that operates in several countries, has sent representatives to this conference I'm attending in Aarau, Switzerland. The Vienna representative of the group just outlined for me their plan to introduce the California-style ballot initiative to Austria. The country requires a two-thirds vote of Parliament for a constitutional amendment. Now that new elections have reduced the governing coalition's share of the Parliament below two-thirds, there's an opportunity for minority parties to band together and block significant changes. That's what they plan to do -- unless the ruling coalition agrees to add the initiative to the constitution.

At the Sacramento Bee, Dan Weintraub examined the changes in the rainy day fund that were part of the budget agreement. He was skeptical but also suggested they could, in time, prove to be a victory for Gov. Schwarzenegger. I'd bet against that, for reasons both political and budgetary.

First, the political. The rainy day fund changes are not official yet--they need to be approved by voters. And there is so much anger about the budget agreement among the state's powerful labor unions, particularly those representing public employees, that it seems likely the rainy day fund may face an aggressive "no" campaign in a special election next year. Such a campaign will be difficult for Schwarzenegger to win.

Second, the budgetary. The rainy day fund's supporters see it as having only modest effects. It wouldn't end the state's budget dysfunction. It might make the budget spikes -- and thus the budget down years -- less severe. Such a half-measure is unlikely to inspire much passion among voters, while an angry labor campaign against a budget agreement that all sides acknowledge is problematic would be an easy sell.

I visited yesterday afternoon with Jim Wunderman and othe rstaff and consultants of the Bay Area Council, the San Francisco-based organization that is pushing a state constitutional convention. I'll write at more length later, but the two main things I learned is 1. The process is still early, and even Wunderman, the strongest advocate for this idea, doesn't have a clear idea of how such a convention would be called and how it might work. 2. The convention idea has real momentum. Wunderman has been deluged with expressions of interest from across the political spectrum. And if he and his lawyers (Hanson Bridgett is providing legal advice) can figur eout the mechanics of this quickly and file a measure, he wantsan initiative to call a constitutional convention to appear on next year's special election ballot.

As evidence of that interest, Schwarzenegger gave a shout-out to the convention idea, without specifically endorsing it, in his budget press conference yesterday. Here's the paragraph in question, from the official transcript released by the governor's office:

The governor says there will be a special election in 2009. He wants one because two pieces of the budget agreement -- the rainy day fund changes and the borrowing against future lottery revenues -- requires voter approval. Interestingly, he's looking in the first half of the year--June was the month, he mentioned. Why is that interesting? If the prison guards' union goes forward with a recall against the governor and qualifies the measure, that could trigger a special election. But my reckoning, it's unlikely that such a recall vote could come together before August. (The union does not even have a recall petition certified for circulation yet). Could we end up with two special elections next year? Perhaps.

Gov. Schwarzenegger himself, as the target of the recall, would not set the date of the recall election. In 2003, Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante, who ran in the replacement election, stepped in and set the date because Gov. Gray Davis, as the recall target, was conflicted.

Lots of afternoon news in California.

NEW BUDGET COMPROMISE, VETO AVERTED: Legislative leaders have reached an agreement with Gov. Schwarzenegger on modifications to the budget compromise. The governor won't veto as a result. Apparently, there are stronger protections to prevent untimely raids on the rainy day fund and some differences in the gimmicks used to pretend the budget is balanced. More details to come.

RECALL GOING FORWARD, IT APPEARS: Mike JImenez, the president of the prison guards' union, won re-election during a vote at the group's convention in Las Vegas today. The union also voted, by acclimation, to go forward with the recall of Schwarzenegger, albeit with a few caveats.

WHEN DO WE VOTE ON NEW MEASURES? The budget compromise looks like it will include changes that have to go before voters (among them borrowing against lottery revenues and provisions of the state rainy day fund). But it's too late to add measures to this November's ballot. Can such measures really wait until the next scheduled statewide election in the spring of 2010. This budget deal would seem to clinch a special election in 2009.