Same Sex Marriage

Bans on same-sex marriage appear to have won in Florida and Arizona. And Prop 8, the California ban on gay marriage, is leading early, with nearly 53 percent of the vote. That number will likely shrink as the night goes on. Early tallies are heavy with mail ballots; those voters tend to be older, and age is the best predictor of how people vote on same-sex marriage. It's possible that this race will remain so tight that we may not know the outcome for days, if not weeks.

Supporters of Prop 8, an initiative to ban same-sex marriage, claim that if gay couples continue to be permitted to marry in California, schools will have to teach same-sex marriage to young children. Educators and legal experts say that’s nonsense, and there is no such curricular requirement.

           The controversy begs a practical question:: What would it be like to try to teach same-sex marriage to kindergarteners? I can only imagine how one might do that.

The scene, a kindergarten classroom, morning

             Teacher: This is Mr. Mathews. He’ll be leading today’s lesson on gay marriage.

            Little girl #1: J is my favorite letter!

In The Washington Post, I write about how the Prop 8 campaign has turned into a question of which is creepier: Mormons, or explaining gay marriage to your kids.

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

The campaign around Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, keeps getting nastier. The No on 8 says in a email that their web site was subject to a "denial of service" attack -- a cyber hacking technique in which mutltiple users flood a web site or server to overwhelm it, forcing it to shut down. Such attacks knocked the site down and may have hurt fundraising. Both sides of the Prop 8 fight are raising money over the web at a fast pace.  The Yes on 8 campaign told the Associated Press its officials had nothing to do with it. Authorities are investigating.

The fear is that a big turnout among African-American and Latino voters for Obama might give Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, a crucial boost. Some polling shows broader support for Prop 8 among such voters than in the electorate as a whole. The dynamic also might boost Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before an abortion is performed on a minor.

The governor has now taken positions on 10 of the 12 measures on the ballot. (He's neutral on Propositions 6 and 9, both of which have to do with crime). He's no on Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, and yes on Prop 4, which would require that a parent or guardian be notified before a minor has an abortion. The full list here via the Sacramento Bee.

I just received a recorded message call opposing Prop 8, the California ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage. The recorded voice belonged to Bonnie Shatun of the California Teachers Assn. She cited the endorsements for the No on 8 position by U.S. Sen Dianne Feinstein and by the League of Women Voters. Such calls suggest that women, perhaps moderate women, are a focus of the outreach of opponents of Prop 8.  The call is also well-timed, and suggests a more organized campaign against Prop 8 than we saw a few months ago.. A new ad by Feinstein against Prop 8 has just gone up. More on that to come.

I understand why the No on 8 campaign is making such an issue of the Mormon church's support for Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. I'm reliably told that polling shows there's an opportunity for the campaign here. The church is not popular, and has gone to great lengths to support the campaign institutionally, with call centers, video conferences, and money. Mormons are providing much of the money and volunteer support for the initiative. To supporters of same-sex marriage, this feels like a deeply unfair intrusion by the church. What gives the church the right to reach into California politics and write discrimination into the state constitution? And a church with a history of polygamy makes a tempting political target.

Variety, yes Variety, asks why Gov. Schwarzenegger hasn't cut an ad against Prop 8. It's an interesting question, not clearly answered by the story. The governor is unpopular, so maybe the No on 8 campaign has concluded that Arnold won't help. Schwarzenegger has largely avoided taking on divisive social issues, so maybe the reticence is his.