Redistricting

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess. 

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign  for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor. 

Back in the spring, I ran into a consultant working for redistricting reform, the California ballot initiative Prop 11, and he predicted that there might not be a funded campaign against the measure. I scoffed -- I think redistricting reform, while a fine cause, has been oversold and is politically a waste of time. But it looks more and more like he was onto something.

Redistricting measures have a long tradition of failing. But if there's ever going to be a year for such an initiative to pass, this may be it. The latest good news for Prop 11 is that the powerful California Teachers Assn., which has spent big to beat previous redistricting efforts, has decided to stay neutral. (CTA isn't happy with the legislature over the most recent budget, and this smells like payback to Democratic leaders who oppose redistricting). That leaves the no campaign without critical financial and organizational strength.

That said, it's still an uphill battle for redistricting, which has less than 40 percent support in polls. Few initiatives with such little support end up winning. But the ray of hope in those surveys is that the "no" vote is low, too, with a huge undecided. If redistricting supporters can somehow get out their message (a tough thing to do with attention on the worldwide economic crisis and the presidential campaign), they might have a chance at winning over undecided and earning a narrow victory.

A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows three November ballot initiatives -- Prop 4 (parental notification before a minor has an abortion), Prop 8 (ban on same-sex marriage) and Prop 11 (redistricting reform) -- with less than majority support. Prop 11's supporters issued a statement last night saying the poll was good news, as it showed the measure leading 38 percent to 33 percent. I suppose that depends on one's definition of good news. Few measures with less than majoriting support at this point pass. And while the state's dysfunction may give redistricting reform an opportunity, it's bad news that the measure doesn't have more support -- even after a blow-up of the budget process. And with Californians sour on their state, it's not clear that any political figure or interest group has the credibility to convince undecided voters to support the measure in the numbers needed for it to pass. 

The poll suggests that voters may have more interest in broader reforms, including eliminating the requirement of a two-thirds vote in the legislature to pass a budget. California is one of only three states with such a super-majority rule.

The Capitol Weekly reports that the powerful California Teachers Association is holding an emergency meeting of its board today to discuss how to respond to the just-passed budget. CTA is unhappy about the budget -- who isn't? -- and is taking action as a result. On the table, according to the Weekly: 1. no spending on Democratic legislative campaigns this fall. 2. a ballot measure to reverse corporate tax cuts that are in the budget, and 3. endorsing Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative on this November's ballot. If CTA were to back Prop 11 with its endorsement and money, it might give the cause of redistricting reform -- never a popular cause -- enough push to get it over the top.

More than a week ago, the Public Policy Institute of California put out a report looking at redistricting and legislative behavior. But it didn't get the attention it deserved. The recall attempt against Gov. Schwarzenegger, the calls for a constitutional convention, and -- most of all -- the end of the budget drama consumed air time and newspaper space. The report also was the subject of a dismissive column by Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters.

Fifty-four percent of likely voters oppose Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. (Note to those clicking on the poll link: The findings are first reported on page 7 of the poll document). Only 40 percent support the measure. 

Initiatives that face that kind of opposition two months before an election almost always lose. But the PPIC offers a few caveats. Public attitudes continue to be split -- 47 to 47 -- on the question of whether gay couples should be permitted to marry. Those numbers haven't budged in three years. And the poll finds that opponents of same-sex marriage care more about the issue than the supporters of same-sex marriage.

The same poll shows less than 50 percent support for Prop 4, an initiative to require parental notification before a minor secures an abortion. And the poll shows Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has far less than majority support. It's 39 percent yes, 36 percent no. And the measure fails to draw majority support from Democrats, Republicans or independents. Some of those involved in the measure have told me that redistricting has a chance this time because the campaign against it has been slow to organize and spend money. Perhaps. But it appears that a "no" campaign may not be required to defeat the measure. It could fail purely on the lingering skepticism of voters who have turned down similar redistricting proposals time after time.

The supporters of Prop 11, the California ballot initiative to change how legislative districts, have an uphill fight. Redistricting reform, however well-conceived, always loses in California because of opposition from Democratic and Republican partisans. But every time I approach 100 percent certainty that redistricting will fail again, Don Perata gives me pause.

No politician in California better represents the dysfunction, immaturity and just plain incompetence of the state's elected leadership. Perata has been under investigation by the FBI for his entire time in leadership. (No charges have been brought yet). He's been the person who blocked any number of bipartisan compromises that would advance public policy in the state, most notably on water and health care. And he has misled the public about his intentions to advance political reform, specifically redistricting reform. Again and again, he promised that he and the legislature would produce a redistricting measure. He never followed through. 

California Congresswoman Laura Richardson would make the perfect poster child for the campaign for an initiative reforming redistricting. Her life and finances are a mess. The latest is that her home in Sacramento has been declared a "public nuisance." Her continued presence in Congress is an embarassment. But she'll win re-election easily, because there's no real competition in California. (Note to conspiracy theorists: her write-in opponent, Peter Mathews, has the same last name as your blogger, but we don't know each other and are not related).

I, for one, can't wait to see  the Prop 11 campaign broadcast commercials with Richardson's story, an example of the lack of accountability that California's gerrymander promotes. We could see the houses she's lost to foreclosure, the bills she's left unpaid, the car she abandoned in a repair shop. It's going to be perfect....

Except  there is not going to be such an ad.

Why? Because members of Congress are not covered by that redistricting reform initiative, scheduled for this November's California ballot.

Why is that? Well, to prevent leading members of Congress such as Nancy Pelosi from opposing the initiative.

How has that worked out? Pelosi and other Congressional Democrats are opposing the measure.

To quote Dark Helmet in Spaceballs, "evil will always triumph because good is dumb."

I'm still very dubious, but John Wildemuth makes the case on a San Francisco Chronicle blog. The main point is: money is rolling into the Prop 11 initiative to remove redistricting of state legislative districts from the hands of the legislature. (Congressional districts are, unfortunately, exempt). But opposition money has been very slow to materialize.

One word of warning to the Yes on 11 side. There's been talk about making this a populist campaign against the legislature and the powers that be. I don't think that will sell when you're getting by the state's elite, including Eli Broad, John Doerr and Angelo Tsakopoulous. Better to argue simply and honestly that this initiative might make the legislature work a little bit better, and leave it at that.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and other California Congressional Democrats this week declared their opposition to Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative on the state's November ballot. Yes, the initiative's prospects are bleak, but this particular endorsement is worth examining. Pelosi announced her opposition in a letter to Gov. Schwarzenegger, a major backer of the initiative. That letter (posted here on the California Majority Report, a Democrat site that also opposes the measure)  is highly -- and unintentionally -- revealing about Pelosi, her thinking and the out-of-touch mindset created by California's gerrymandering, which protects incumbents of both parties.