Redistricting

UPDATED 9 p.m.: Rick Claussen, the veteran initiative consultant handling the sweeping campaign for all six California special election measures, is out with an interesting memo on the recent PPIC poll, which shows five of those six in trouble.

Claussen is self-interested obviously. But your blogger has found him to be very reliable in the past. (Most recently, your blogger said Prop 11, last November's redistricting initiative in California, had no chance of passing. Claussen told me I was wrong and then proved it, managing the campaign that got it passed).

In this new memo, dated Wednesday, Claussen writes that the PPIC poll effectively assumes a turnout of 50 percent. He says the campaign's own internals on Prop 1A show it with a lead of 50 to 37 percent. That would make the measure hardly a sure thing, but that's much better than the PPIC poll, which showed it trailing, with 46 percent No and 39 percent Yes:

From the memo:

There are plenty of initiatives in California cleared for circulation, but nothing on the street, as of my last check last weekend. The May 19 special election came too quickly for anyone to qualify an initiative, and the next scheduled statewide election isn't until June 2010. And many of state's signature gatherers have departed for Florida or Washington.

What are they working on there? In Florida, there are two redistricting initiatives on the ballot, paying 70 cents a piece. In Washington, a conservative, anti-property tax initiative is paying 75 cents. Both prices are low, but I'm told that circulators are showing a lot of interest in both petitions. Deflation and the bad economy have not spared direct democracy. (Hat tip: Public Petitioner).

The most striking thing about Gov. Schwarzenegger's political reform event Wednesday at a railroad museum in Sacramento was how little was said about the future. The event celebrated the narrow triumph of Prop 11, the measure to strip California legislators of the ability to draw their own districts. But there wasn't much specific about that. Schwarzenegger's office did issue a press release that listed legislation he's supported in the past, and argued that he will pursue more transparency, without giving details). 

Prop 11 was a significant political triumph (similar measures had lost before), but its impact is likely to be small. The measure doesn't take effect for another two years. And given the political geography of California, it will be hard to draw single-member districts that don't strongly favor one party or the other. Californians tend to live near people who vote like they do.

The results of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative in California, still remain too close for most media outlets to call. At Fox & Hounds Daily, I try to find a pattern in the scattershod map of the votes tallied so far.

I'm back today to discover that Prop 11 isn't a done deal at all. Its backers have declared victory, but Prop 11 opponents refuse to concede. The redistricting reform initiative has a lead of nearly 100,000 votes with all precincts reporting, but there are still more than 1 million outstanding ballots -- absentees and provisionals -- to count.

Winners:

Political reform. In California, the big longshot -- redistricting reform, which has a near perfect record of losing at the ballot -- came in. Prop 11, which strips the legislature of the right to draw state legislative districts (Congressional districts were exempted) -- passed. It's a stunning win (and one your blogger predicted would not happen). This redistricting measure is a modest reform, but the victory suggests that political reform on the ballot may be possible -- at least if there isn't much of a campaign against it. Look for future measures on open primary and perhaps other reforms. And in Colorado, Prop 54 -- which had little money and faced a huge, expensive, labor campaign againts it -- also appears to have scored a triumph. The measure is a tight ban on "pay to play." If a company or union has a contract with the government, it can't give money. Labor leaders here in Denver last night say they will challenge it in court.

The initiative process. Voters turned down the greatest in the country to the initiative process, Arizona's "majority rules" measure, which would have established a near impossible standard for passing an initiative: a majority of all the state's registered voters (not just the voters who show up on election day). Measure O, a legislative referendum to make it more difficult to qualify an initiative to change the state constitution, also went down.

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

This is the new ad in favor of Prop 11, the California initiative to strip state legislators of the power to draw their own disricts. A citizens' commission would do the job instead.

It stars a firefighter. This is typical--cops, firefighters and teachers have been staples of initiative ads in California. Firefighters are among the most popular public servants. Often, firefighters in ads are there on behalf of unions that have endorsed a measure. That's not the case here, however.

This New York Times story spotlights the problem of "prison gerrymandering": prisoners can't vote, but they can count as residents of the legislative districts in which they are confined.

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.