Recall

Trash contracts and direct democracy have a long history in California cities. The awarding of lucrative contracts is one of the bigger decisions city councils stil make, in the post-Prop 13 world where the state, not local communities, make the big tax and spend decisons. And thus, there's a long history of smelly pay-to-play deals on local trash contracts. But in a state with such a long tradition of direct democracy, a council vote is usually just the beginning of the story. There have been dozens of recall campaigns launched over the awarding of trash contracts. And in some cities, the contract itself can be put to a referendum. Now, in the Los Angeles suburb of Montebello, it appears that the new trash contract may produce both a recall and a referendum.

The California Correctional Peace Officers Association had filed a notice of recall against Schwarzenegger and a proposed petition to circulate. (The petition was not approved, and the union had been expected to file a revised petition this week). Now a spokesman for the prison guards' union tells the AP there wasn't much point to the recall. Even it succeeded, Schwarzenegger would be removed from office only for the final lame-duck months of his term.

This is a smart move by the union. The governor, a strong foe of the union, not only would have survived a vote but also might have gained new political capital as a result.

Attached is the full text of the letter rejecting the first recall petition submitted by the prison guards' union:

Talk about timing. Today is the fifth anniversary of the vote to recall Gray Davis and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger governor. And today, the Secretary of State's office rejected the first petition submitted to recall Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The petition, submitted by the prison guards' union, failed to include Schwarzenegger's official statement in response, as is required. The mistake is a simple one, but somewhat understandable. By keeping the recall petition to one page ,the union may be able to circulate it more easily and inexpensively.

This is not the end of the story. The union now has the right to alter and re-submit its petition.

Former Gov. Gray Davis, recalled in 2003, explains why to Rick Orlov of the Daily News.

Lots of afternoon news in California.

NEW BUDGET COMPROMISE, VETO AVERTED: Legislative leaders have reached an agreement with Gov. Schwarzenegger on modifications to the budget compromise. The governor won't veto as a result. Apparently, there are stronger protections to prevent untimely raids on the rainy day fund and some differences in the gimmicks used to pretend the budget is balanced. More details to come.

RECALL GOING FORWARD, IT APPEARS: Mike JImenez, the president of the prison guards' union, won re-election during a vote at the group's convention in Las Vegas today. The union also voted, by acclimation, to go forward with the recall of Schwarzenegger, albeit with a few caveats.

WHEN DO WE VOTE ON NEW MEASURES? The budget compromise looks like it will include changes that have to go before voters (among them borrowing against lottery revenues and provisions of the state rainy day fund). But it's too late to add measures to this November's ballot. Can such measures really wait until the next scheduled statewide election in the spring of 2010. This budget deal would seem to clinch a special election in 2009.

The target of a recall in California is entitled to a 200-word official response. Gov. Schwarzenegger filed his today, in response to a notice of recall advanced by the state's prison guards' union. It reads:

"This recall petition is special interests politics at its worst. It's not about the people of California; it's an intimidation tactic by the prison guards' union to force Governor Schwarzenegger into giving them a bigger contract. The bosses want the same sweetheart deal Governor Davis gave them after $3 million in campaign contributions. When Governor Schwarzenegger ran for office he said if special interests try to push him around, he would push back.

"The Los Angeles Times said this union is 'fooling no one.' The Sacramento Bee called it a 'self-serving grab for power and money.' The San Diego Union-Tribune says it's a 'bullying tactic.' The San Jose Mercury News calls this an attempt to 'pressure' the Governor to 'give away the store like his predecessor.'

"Even Democrat lawmaker Jackie Speier said this union has 'a lock on the Legislature... They telegraph loud and clear: 'If you cross us, we'll take you out.''

"It's offensive that one special interest is using a recall to get more money. California faces a financial crisis and this union's leadership wants $1.3 billion more from taxpayers. Governor Schwarzenegger refuses to be intimidated and will do what's best for California, not a special interest."

Overwhelming majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents don't want a recall. But the Field Poll is not good news for the governor. He's down to 38 percent job approval, with 70 percent of state voters saying California is on the wrong track. (Who are the 22 percent who think we're on the right track?). And both of his current options -- signing a bad budget, or issuing a veto that could prolong the stalemate -- are unlikely to help his popularity.

If I were Schwarzenegger, I'd want to face the recall vote. The polling shows he's stuck. Unpopular, but not a big enough threat to anyone politically for voters to care about the recall. There's an adjective that describes a politician in this predicament. The word is "irrelevant." Schwarzenegger should pray that the guards go through with the recall--it would give him a chance to make his case for reform again, and to renew his political capital.

That's the news in this thorough examination (from Steven Harmon of Media News)  of the politics of a possible recall of Gov. Schwarzenegger. Leading conservatives Mike Spence and Jon Fleischman don't come out and endorse the recall, but they don't back away from it either. That shows the depth of conservative disappointment with Schwarzenegger, and the real political perils he faces if the prison guards' union spends the money to put a recall question on the ballot.

That said, I agree with Rob Stutzman, the former Schwarzenegger communications director quoted at the end of this story, that a recall vote would be a political opportunity for the governor. It could strengthen him.

Here's my LA Times piece arguing that Gov. Schwarzenegger should respond to the prison guards' recall effort -- by embracing the recall vote and using it to rebuild his political capital.