Proposition 98

A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California finds that the two competing eminent domain measures, Propositions 98 (backed by conservatives, anti-tax groups) and Prop 99 (backed by cities), have less than 50 percent support. Less than two weeks before an election, that often spells doom for both measures. As such, this would be a victory for the backers of Prop 99, who qualified the measure in order to beat Prop. 98. Qualifying your own measure to defeat one you don't like is a time-tested tactic. In most cases, both initiatives go down. Each initiaitve purports to restrict the ability of governments to take property for private purposes, though Prop 98's protections are stronger--so strong the initiative also would eliminate rent control.

In other findings, the poll shows that Gov. Schwarzenegger's lottery plan is unpopular with the public--and his back-up proposal, a one-cent sales tax increase, has support from a narrow majority.

Here's a San Jose Mercury News look at the two measures. One thing that distinguishes Prop 98 from 99 is the former's elimination of rent control, which is why it's backed by owners of apartment buildings and trailer parks, including Tribune Company chairman Sam Zell.

SHOW ME STATE BLOCKING CAMPAIGN: The blockbuster democracy world is afire with reports that Lee Albright and his firm National Petition Management have been hired to lead a blocking campaign against the signature gathering for Ward Connerly's anti-affirmative action initiative in Missouri. The Wall Street Journal publishes an opinion piece that provides a decent overview -- but with an over-the-top spin that suggests that blocking campaigns are way out of bounds.

Updated: The San Diego Union-Tribune is engaged in a curious war over a very old question: when is an increase in spending a cut in spending? The added wrinkle is that the paper is focusing on education spending in California, and that takes us back to the education spending formula -- and incomprehensible morass -- known as Proposition 98.

To help the easily confused, this is a different Prop 98 than the eminent domain measure that will appear on your ballot this June. (Every decade or so, the Secretary of State busts open the odometer of blockbuster democracy, and resets the Proposition numbers at 1).

The education funding formula Prop 98, passed by California voters 20 years ago, is one of the two ballot initiatives that has the most influence over how our state is governed. The other, Prop 13, passed by voters in 1978, limits how fast taxes can go up, and requires a two-thirds vote of the legislature to pass a tax increase. (Two-thirds for passing a budget came decades earlier). Taken together -- and they must be considered together -- Props 13 and 98 represent the central problem of California budgeting and finance, and thus reflect what the voters want: 1. Limits on taxes, and 2. ever escalating spending on the government programs people most cherish.