Proposition 8

I understand why the No on 8 campaign is making such an issue of the Mormon church's support for Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. I'm reliably told that polling shows there's an opportunity for the campaign here. The church is not popular, and has gone to great lengths to support the campaign institutionally, with call centers, video conferences, and money. Mormons are providing much of the money and volunteer support for the initiative. To supporters of same-sex marriage, this feels like a deeply unfair intrusion by the church. What gives the church the right to reach into California politics and write discrimination into the state constitution? And a church with a history of polygamy makes a tempting political target.

The LA Times says this is nearly twice as much as was spent on all previous same-sex marriage ballot measures nationwide, combined. Despite this, both campaigns are sending constant emails suggesting they are out of money. It's enough to make one wonder about financial controls in these campaigns. If you can't get your message out for $30 million, even in California, something is wrong.

For all the attention that billionaires Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman have received as potential Republican candidates for governor in 2010, former Congressman Tom Campbell is the frontrunner in the polls I've seen. And as Poizner and Whitman attempt to build support on the right, Campbell is emphasizing his libertarian beliefs, writing on a blog affiliated with Reason that he opposes Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. He makes a very clear, conservative case for opposing Prop 8. In fact, Campbell's argument is far better than anything I've heard from the No on 8 campaign itself. How about making a TV ad, Tom?

I'm beginning to fear that opponents of Prop 8 -- that is, supporters of same-sex marriage -- are in the process of seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. There have been confusing ads, in which the opposition to Prop 8, an initiative to ban same-sex marriage, appears to be defending Prop 8. And there has been the failure to have the many religious leaders who support same-sex marriage -- and are marrying couples -- define such marriages as not only consistent with faith, but also essential to a full relationship with God. Yes, many gay people love God  too and want to participate with the person they love in the sacred rite of marriage. Voters, particularly religious voters, ought to hear that perspective.

This summer, opponents of Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, pushed a boycott of businesses that gave to the Yes on 8 campaign. At the time, supporters of the initiative were outraged. Now those supporters are adopting a version of the same game, sending a letter to donors to the No on 8 demanding they give to the yes side -- or receive negative publicity as "opponents of traditional marriage." And of course, the No on 8 side is outraged, calling this "blackmail."

It's always ugly when people or businesses face economic retaliation for their political views. But there's nothing illegal or wrong with the tactics. Your blogger's suggestion, to both sides: Boycott and threaten away. It won't make any difference in the result. This is a close race that should come down to turnout.

This story from today's Sacramento Bee shows the success that Prop 8 and its campaign consultant, Frank Schubert have had in reframing the question posed by the initiative to ban same-sex marriage. One would think the central question of a campaign to ban such marriages would be the simple one of whether such couples deserve the legal recognition of marriage. But in California, that question seems to be a political loser for those who support the ban. So, faced with a political problem, opponents of same-sex marriage have attempted to expand the question by asking what legal same-sex marriage might mean for other parts of society.

The ballot initiative process includes professional signature gatherers, professional pollsters, professional consultants, professional initiative drafters and professional direct mail folks. Today the LA Times has a report on a new direct democracy professional: those who pray and fast as a full-time occupation. In a long but worth-its-length story this morning, the paper reports on people in La Mesa, California, who have been praying since last month (apparently with few breaks and without departing the church) for Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage.

The San Francisco Chronicle politics blog reports that the latest campaign finance report for the yes side of Proposition 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, was so long that it couldn't be uploaded onto the state's web site. The report ran to more than 5,000 pages.

The Yes on 8 campaign appears to have some momentum. But it still has yet to reach a majority of voters i nthe polls.

Perhaps the funniest and most interesting ad of the political season comes from the Courage Campaign, an online organizing group for liberals in California, which has produced its own ad opposing Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban. Whether this ad makes it on the air will be interesting, but it's going viral on the web.

A couple has their "goodies" checked out by state "gender auditors." And, in an unserious way, it raises an interesting point. If there's a ban on same-sex marriage, exactly how will it be enforced?

The new "Yes on 8" ad is blanketing the air waves. Now supporters of the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage are touting the results of a new SurveyUSA poll that shows the measure with a lead of 47 to 42 percent. Such surveys are controversial--Survey USA is a "robo poll" that uses only an electronic voice. But both sides seem to be taking it seriously.

Here's an account of the poll via Baptist Press. Meanwhile, on the left, the Courage Campaign sends out an alert that reads: A new poll just released by KPIX, San Francisco's CBS television affiliate, reveals a shocking shift in support for Proposition 8. According to the poll, likely California voters now favor passage of Prop 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent, following a recent blitz of advertising by supporters of the initiative. Meanwhile, an internal poll just released by the "No on 8" campaign confirms the KPIX poll numbers, showing Prop 8 winning 47%-43%.