Prop 8

The New York Times seems to think so. In this piece, the Times says that an Arkansas initiative to ban adoption by unmarried couples (a measure clearly targeted at gays) passed because white Arkansas Democrats didn't like Obama and stayed home, thus hurting the measure. The evidence of that is hardly clear. Turnout appears to have been down among white Democrats, but it's far from clear that such Democrats who stayed at home would have opposed the ban. It's common to link the results of candidate races to the results of initiative elections, but the correlation is not strong. In California, some are blaming the victory of Prop 8 on socially conservative African Americans who turned out for Obama but also supported a ban on same-sex marriage. Maybe. But the margin in that race is such -- and the percentage of black voters is small enough -- that the gay marriage ban might well have succeeded in spite of any turnout effect. The margin in Arkansas was even wider on the adoption measure.

Last night on the nationally syndicated radio show Beyond the Beltway, I discussed the problems with the No on 8 campaign that led to victory for the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage.

The Prop 8 election returns are in, but the campaign isn't over. Opponents of Prop 8 -- that is, supporters of same-sex marriage -- staged protests on the west side of Los Angeles yesterday afternoon and evening., temporarily shutting down traffic on two major thoroughfares. Protestors targeted Mormons with signs and marched on the Mormon temple on Santa Monica Boulevard.

Political consultant Fiona Hutton, of Fiona Hutton & Associates, worked on the campaign to defeat Prop 2, the Humane Society initiative on farm animal regulation. It passed. So did Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban. And she writes to say she is wondering what this says about California voters:

"Whether you voted for John McCain or Barack Obama, consensus is that we Americans experienced something historic and amazing at the national level. It was all about change and calls for equality.

Many of us, however, are scratching our heads at the decisions that California voters made on November 4th. Californians chose to protect the rights of chickens, but not the rights of committed gay partners. Contrary to what pundits are saying, we didn’t really experience “social change” here in California. And, according to some peoples’ perspectives, we didn’t really vote for social compassion.

Couple this puzzling scenario with the shopping spree voters went on, approving a bagful of bond and tax measures that further saddle our state and local jurisdictions with significant levels of new debt. Aren’t we in the worst economic crisis in recent history? Isn’t our state broke? Voters seemingly made no connection between the ballots they cast and our state’s overdrawn bank account.

We experienced some version of voter schizophrenia that is tough to explain. There was just no consistency. As political professionals, we look for trends and ideological sweeps but really it’s very individualized when voters enter a voting booth.

Supporters of Prop 8, an initiative to ban same-sex marriage, claim that if gay couples continue to be permitted to marry in California, schools will have to teach same-sex marriage to young children. Educators and legal experts say that’s nonsense, and there is no such curricular requirement.

           The controversy begs a practical question:: What would it be like to try to teach same-sex marriage to kindergarteners? I can only imagine how one might do that.

The scene, a kindergarten classroom, morning

             Teacher: This is Mr. Mathews. He’ll be leading today’s lesson on gay marriage.

            Little girl #1: J is my favorite letter!

In The Washington Post, I write about how the Prop 8 campaign has turned into a question of which is creepier: Mormons, or explaining gay marriage to your kids.

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

The campaign around Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, keeps getting nastier. The No on 8 says in a email that their web site was subject to a "denial of service" attack -- a cyber hacking technique in which mutltiple users flood a web site or server to overwhelm it, forcing it to shut down. Such attacks knocked the site down and may have hurt fundraising. Both sides of the Prop 8 fight are raising money over the web at a fast pace.  The Yes on 8 campaign told the Associated Press its officials had nothing to do with it. Authorities are investigating.

The fear is that a big turnout among African-American and Latino voters for Obama might give Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, a crucial boost. Some polling shows broader support for Prop 8 among such voters than in the electorate as a whole. The dynamic also might boost Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before an abortion is performed on a minor.

The governor has now taken positions on 10 of the 12 measures on the ballot. (He's neutral on Propositions 6 and 9, both of which have to do with crime). He's no on Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, and yes on Prop 4, which would require that a parent or guardian be notified before a minor has an abortion. The full list here via the Sacramento Bee.