Prop 7

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

Here's my piece, just now posted on the Scientific American web site, that looks at the poltical prospects of Propositions 7 and 10, two initiatives on the November ballot in California.

An alternative fuels measure -- similar to California's Prop 7 -- did not appear to have enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot in Missouri. But a judge has reversed that decision, the Columbia Missourian reports. The issue was not the total number of signatures but the initiative's requirement with Missouri's distribution requirement. In Missouri, initiative sponsors must collect a minimum amount of signatures in six of the state's nine Congressional districts.

The initiative in question would require require utilities to use renewable fuels for at least two percent of the electricity they sell in the state by 2011, and for 15 percent of electricity by 2021.

Fundraising for ballot initiatives is a rich man's game. In 2006 in California, some two-thirds of all donations to ballot measures came in the amount of $1 million or more, according to a recent report from the Center for Governmental Studies. Yes, two-thirds of all donations.

So the latest big cash dumps in California are business as usual. Peter Sperling just gave $2.5 million to Prop 7, an alternative fuels measure. And George Soros found some spare change with the lint in his pants -- about $400,000 -- and threw it to Prop 5, which would expand drug rehabilitation and loosen some penalties for drug offenders. Soros' total donations to the measure? $1.4 million. So far. The Sacramento Bee has details.

UPDATED: 3 PM. Or maybe not. A consultant for No on 7 says they don't have robo-calls and this wasn't one. The call I received -- on my cell phone, at 9:46 p.m. -- doesn't match the script for the Yes on 7 robo-call. So this must have been -- something else....

ORIGINAL MSG: Just received one opposing Prop 7, which would require utilities to produce half their power from renewables by 2025. The measure is opposed by utilities, but the recorded voice claims that the measure is cooked up by the same people who gave us the electricity crisis in California six years ago. As I recall, the utilities supported the legislation that gave us that crisis.

California utilities have recently given more than $22 million to stop Prop 7, Peter Sperling's measure on renewable fuels, according to the Sacramento Bee. Proponents of Prop 7 are highlighting the utility money, in part to make the fight appear to be between advocates of alternative fuels and the utilities. But despite strong early polling, the measure has united people -- in opposition, including both political parties, labor and business, and environmentalists (who like the goal but think the initiative is poorly drafted).

With this amount of money coming into the race early, and deep pockets on both sides, this could easily be a $50 million campaign. And with the oilman Boone Pickens launching Prop 10 to subsidize his own investments in natural gas, California could easily see $100 million spent for and against the two energy measures. With big money campaigns expected around Prop 2 (the animal confinement measure), Prop 8 (ban on gay marriage), and perhaps redistricting (Prop 11), this year could see spending of more than $200 million on initiatives alone.