Prop 4
Where Does One Find Latinos in Los Angeles?
One wouldn't think that's not a tough assignment, but the campaign in favor of Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before a minor receives an abortion, has seen fit to give its supporters specific instructions on where to find Latinos. Apparently, Latinos hang out at WalMart and at church.
Below is an actual email from the campaign -- yes, your blogger swears it's real -- urging voters to find Latino voters in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Enjoy.
Will Big Turnout For Obama Doom Same-Sex Marriage in California?
The fear is that a big turnout among African-American and Latino voters for Obama might give Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, a crucial boost. Some polling shows broader support for Prop 8 among such voters than in the electorate as a whole. The dynamic also might boost Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before an abortion is performed on a minor.
Arnold On the Props
The governor has now taken positions on 10 of the 12 measures on the ballot. (He's neutral on Propositions 6 and 9, both of which have to do with crime). He's no on Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, and yes on Prop 4, which would require that a parent or guardian be notified before a minor has an abortion. The full list here via the Sacramento Bee.
Three Props In Trouble
A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows three November ballot initiatives -- Prop 4 (parental notification before a minor has an abortion), Prop 8 (ban on same-sex marriage) and Prop 11 (redistricting reform) -- with less than majority support. Prop 11's supporters issued a statement last night saying the poll was good news, as it showed the measure leading 38 percent to 33 percent. I suppose that depends on one's definition of good news. Few measures with less than majoriting support at this point pass. And while the state's dysfunction may give redistricting reform an opportunity, it's bad news that the measure doesn't have more support -- even after a blow-up of the budget process. And with Californians sour on their state, it's not clear that any political figure or interest group has the credibility to convince undecided voters to support the measure in the numbers needed for it to pass.
The poll suggests that voters may have more interest in broader reforms, including eliminating the requirement of a two-thirds vote in the legislature to pass a budget. California is one of only three states with such a super-majority rule.
Oppositions to Gay Marriage Ban Grows In Poll; Redistricting Initiative Also Weak
Fifty-four percent of likely voters oppose Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. (Note to those clicking on the poll link: The findings are first reported on page 7 of the poll document). Only 40 percent support the measure.
Initiatives that face that kind of opposition two months before an election almost always lose. But the PPIC offers a few caveats. Public attitudes continue to be split -- 47 to 47 -- on the question of whether gay couples should be permitted to marry. Those numbers haven't budged in three years. And the poll finds that opponents of same-sex marriage care more about the issue than the supporters of same-sex marriage.
The same poll shows less than 50 percent support for Prop 4, an initiative to require parental notification before a minor secures an abortion. And the poll shows Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has far less than majority support. It's 39 percent yes, 36 percent no. And the measure fails to draw majority support from Democrats, Republicans or independents. Some of those involved in the measure have told me that redistricting has a chance this time because the campaign against it has been slow to organize and spend money. Perhaps. But it appears that a "no" campaign may not be required to defeat the measure. It could fail purely on the lingering skepticism of voters who have turned down similar redistricting proposals time after time.


