Prop 1A

Your blogger would have called it for "No" at 8:01 p.m., but he was out reporting. It's a special election wipeout. Propositions 1A through 1E --  backed by Governor Schwarzenegger, Democratic legislative leaders and most of the state's elite -- all lost badly. Only 1B appears to be receiving as much as 40 percent support in early returns. The rest are in the mid to upper 30s. (UPDATE MONDAY MORNING: all 5 measures are now well under 40 percent).

What's next? Chaos. Fighting. And a discussion of how exactly a bankrupt state declares bankruptcy.

cross posted at Fox & Hounds Daily.

Criticize Prop 1A if you like, but opponents of the measures (and heck, even some supporters) should stop saying that it's long. It's not.

By comparison to other California ballot measures, 1A is short and compact. And the legislative and gubernatorial staffers (not to mention the interest group folks) who drafted 1A have done a much better job of being concise than sponsors of ballot initiatives.

Prop 1A is a little less than 3,000 words. If that seems like a lot, consider this: between 2000 and 2006, 15 of the 46 voter-sponsored initiatives on the ballot were over 5,000 words long, according to a 2008 report from the Center for Governmental Studies. Eight of those 46 initiatives were longer than 10,000 words.

The trend, the CGS report found, is at least 20 years old. Between 1980 and 1987, only two initiatives were longer than 5,000 words. (Irony: One of those initiatives, Prop 37, the lottery initiative, would be changed under Prop 1C on next Tuesday's ballot). Most initiatives in this era - and previous eras - were about the same length as Prop 1A, between 1,000 and 3,000 words. But in the 1988 and 1990 elections, all 13 initiatives exceeded 5,000 words.

I must admit that my heart skipped a beat while watching the first TV ad (above) in favor of the six measures on the California special election ballot. The ad has no policy content worth commenting upon. Politically, it takes a swipe "politicians," which you don't want to think too hard about it because you might remember that it's the state political leadership who cooked up these propositions. No, this ad is about developing a feeling and targeting a demographic.

I sent Rick Claussen's memo, referenced below, to Mark Baldassare of PPIC, and asked him for a response to the claims on voter turnout. Here's what Mark wrote back:

"Thanks, our poll does not assume a specific turnout for the
election. In fact, we never make predictions about the size and
composition of the electorate before an election. We define likely
voters through answers to a series of questions about voter
registration, intentions to vote, past voting, interest in politics, and
attention to election news. Rather than focus on the size of our sample
as it relates to the percent of registered voters, let's consider the
partisan makeup among our likely voters -- Democrat 45%; Republicans
36%; dts/others=19%. Would a low turnout produce a more Republican or a
more Democratic electorate? This will be important, since Republicans
are  opposed to 1A to 1E will Democrats favor each of them...."

Here's a link to the poll, which shows five of the six measures on the May 19 special election ballot with less than 50 percent support. Here's pollster Mark Baldassare's take on the results in the Sacramento Bee. And here's my upbeat prediction, via Fox & Hounds Daily.

That optimism is based on the fact that opposition to the measures is poorly funded, disorganized and late to the game. The Sacramento Bee, in this news story, suggests the opponents are coming together to fight Prop 1A, the spending limit. But the opposition is forming too late to make much difference on its own. The real problem is that people don't understand much about the measure other than its link to taxes. As Ted Costa, the anti-tax activist who is co-chair of one of the campaigns against 1A, said on a conference call yesterday, "We can beat this with just robocalls." 1A likely loses even without a campaign against it.

UPDATED 9 p.m.: Rick Claussen, the veteran initiative consultant handling the sweeping campaign for all six California special election measures, is out with an interesting memo on the recent PPIC poll, which shows five of those six in trouble.

Claussen is self-interested obviously. But your blogger has found him to be very reliable in the past. (Most recently, your blogger said Prop 11, last November's redistricting initiative in California, had no chance of passing. Claussen told me I was wrong and then proved it, managing the campaign that got it passed).

In this new memo, dated Wednesday, Claussen writes that the PPIC poll effectively assumes a turnout of 50 percent. He says the campaign's own internals on Prop 1A show it with a lead of 50 to 37 percent. That would make the measure hardly a sure thing, but that's much better than the PPIC poll, which showed it trailing, with 46 percent No and 39 percent Yes:

From the memo:

Writing in the Sacramento Bee, Meg Whitman, the eBay chief turned GOP gubernatorial contender, comes out against Props 1A (spending limit and rainy day fund), Prop 1B (a boost in the education funding base) and Prop 1C (a plan to modernize the lottery and borrow against future revenue). She supports Props 1D and 1E (which redirect voter-approved moneys for early childhood and mental health programs) and the populist 1F, which would bar legislative pay increases in years with deficits. All six measures were part of last month's budget deal and appear on the May 19 special election ballot.

This is safe politics but something short of leadership. Whitman needs the conservatives who vote in Republican primaries, and they hate the temporary tax extensions that are part of Prop 1A. (If the measure passes, the temporary taxes run for 4 years. If it fails, they run for 2 years). One potential rival, former Congressman Tom Campbell, has bravely backed Prop 1A. Another, insurance commissioner Steve Poizner, has adopted a line similar to Whitman's.

That's how California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger today characterized opponents of the six measures that were part of last month's budget deal and go before voters in the May 19 special election.

Schwarzenegger made plain in a speech at the Commonwealth Club that, despite sagging approval ratings, he intends to campaign strongly for the package of six measures.

He also revealed a tough political strategy: go negative against opponents of the package and particularly the spending limit and rainy day fund measure, Prop 1A. In the speech, Schwarzenegger depicted those opponents as out of the mainstream, "the far left" (who want to spend) and "the far right." He was not kind. Consider this excerpt:

In a blast at members of his own party, he said: "Those who say that we could balance the budget through spending cuts alone are guilty of political cynicism at its worst. These are not serious people."

That's right, the governor of California effectively declared that much of the Republican establishment, a majority of GOP legislators and the two of the three GOP candidates for governor in 2010 (Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman) "are not serious people." That's a bit much, but their opposition to taxes in this circumstance is certainly unserious. It appears that the third GOP candidate, former Congressman and Schwarzenegger finance director Tom Campbell, has the governor's endorsement. If he wants it.

The left doesn't like Prop 1A, which sets up a strong rainy day fund and limits spending. The right doesn't like Prop 1A either, because its passage would extend temporary taxes. So the coalition forming to fight the measure, one of six measures that came out of the budget deal and are on the May 19 special election ballot, has plenty of "strange bedfellows," the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

It's bad enough that California law permits the attorney general -- an elected, partisan official -- to write the official titles and summaries for ballot initiatives that qualify from the ballot. Most of the time, at least, the a.g. is independent of the initiative sponsor. But when it comes to measures that are placed on the ballot by the legislature itself, lawmakers themselves get to write the official summaries. And they don't have a good record of being honest with the public.

The latest example is Prop 1A, the spending limit measure that was part of last week's budget deal and will appear on the May 19 special election ballot. As the Sacramento Bee points out in this story, the legislature's official description of the measure omits the very important fact that if the measure passes, temporary tax increases in the budget deal will last longer. (The tax provision was inserted to discourage unions and liberal groups from fighting the measure on the ballot -- a tactic that, so far, seems to be working).

California needs an independent title board that would draft titles and summaries for ballot initiatives and legislative measures -- anything that goes to the people. Such a board should be balanced between Democrats and Republicans and independents. The board's only mission would be to give voters an accurate description of the measure.