Prop 11

Fifty-four percent of likely voters oppose Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. (Note to those clicking on the poll link: The findings are first reported on page 7 of the poll document). Only 40 percent support the measure. 

Initiatives that face that kind of opposition two months before an election almost always lose. But the PPIC offers a few caveats. Public attitudes continue to be split -- 47 to 47 -- on the question of whether gay couples should be permitted to marry. Those numbers haven't budged in three years. And the poll finds that opponents of same-sex marriage care more about the issue than the supporters of same-sex marriage.

The same poll shows less than 50 percent support for Prop 4, an initiative to require parental notification before a minor secures an abortion. And the poll shows Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has far less than majority support. It's 39 percent yes, 36 percent no. And the measure fails to draw majority support from Democrats, Republicans or independents. Some of those involved in the measure have told me that redistricting has a chance this time because the campaign against it has been slow to organize and spend money. Perhaps. But it appears that a "no" campaign may not be required to defeat the measure. It could fail purely on the lingering skepticism of voters who have turned down similar redistricting proposals time after time.

The supporters of Prop 11, the California ballot initiative to change how legislative districts, have an uphill fight. Redistricting reform, however well-conceived, always loses in California because of opposition from Democratic and Republican partisans. But every time I approach 100 percent certainty that redistricting will fail again, Don Perata gives me pause.

No politician in California better represents the dysfunction, immaturity and just plain incompetence of the state's elected leadership. Perata has been under investigation by the FBI for his entire time in leadership. (No charges have been brought yet). He's been the person who blocked any number of bipartisan compromises that would advance public policy in the state, most notably on water and health care. And he has misled the public about his intentions to advance political reform, specifically redistricting reform. Again and again, he promised that he and the legislature would produce a redistricting measure. He never followed through. 

California Congresswoman Laura Richardson would make the perfect poster child for the campaign for an initiative reforming redistricting. Her life and finances are a mess. The latest is that her home in Sacramento has been declared a "public nuisance." Her continued presence in Congress is an embarassment. But she'll win re-election easily, because there's no real competition in California. (Note to conspiracy theorists: her write-in opponent, Peter Mathews, has the same last name as your blogger, but we don't know each other and are not related).

I, for one, can't wait to see  the Prop 11 campaign broadcast commercials with Richardson's story, an example of the lack of accountability that California's gerrymander promotes. We could see the houses she's lost to foreclosure, the bills she's left unpaid, the car she abandoned in a repair shop. It's going to be perfect....

Except  there is not going to be such an ad.

Why? Because members of Congress are not covered by that redistricting reform initiative, scheduled for this November's California ballot.

Why is that? Well, to prevent leading members of Congress such as Nancy Pelosi from opposing the initiative.

How has that worked out? Pelosi and other Congressional Democrats are opposing the measure.

To quote Dark Helmet in Spaceballs, "evil will always triumph because good is dumb."