Prop 11

UPDATED 9 p.m.: Rick Claussen, the veteran initiative consultant handling the sweeping campaign for all six California special election measures, is out with an interesting memo on the recent PPIC poll, which shows five of those six in trouble.

Claussen is self-interested obviously. But your blogger has found him to be very reliable in the past. (Most recently, your blogger said Prop 11, last November's redistricting initiative in California, had no chance of passing. Claussen told me I was wrong and then proved it, managing the campaign that got it passed).

In this new memo, dated Wednesday, Claussen writes that the PPIC poll effectively assumes a turnout of 50 percent. He says the campaign's own internals on Prop 1A show it with a lead of 50 to 37 percent. That would make the measure hardly a sure thing, but that's much better than the PPIC poll, which showed it trailing, with 46 percent No and 39 percent Yes:

From the memo:

The most striking thing about Gov. Schwarzenegger's political reform event Wednesday at a railroad museum in Sacramento was how little was said about the future. The event celebrated the narrow triumph of Prop 11, the measure to strip California legislators of the ability to draw their own districts. But there wasn't much specific about that. Schwarzenegger's office did issue a press release that listed legislation he's supported in the past, and argued that he will pursue more transparency, without giving details). 

Prop 11 was a significant political triumph (similar measures had lost before), but its impact is likely to be small. The measure doesn't take effect for another two years. And given the political geography of California, it will be hard to draw single-member districts that don't strongly favor one party or the other. Californians tend to live near people who vote like they do.

The results of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative in California, still remain too close for most media outlets to call. At Fox & Hounds Daily, I try to find a pattern in the scattershod map of the votes tallied so far.

I'm back today to discover that Prop 11 isn't a done deal at all. Its backers have declared victory, but Prop 11 opponents refuse to concede. The redistricting reform initiative has a lead of nearly 100,000 votes with all precincts reporting, but there are still more than 1 million outstanding ballots -- absentees and provisionals -- to count.

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

This is the new ad in favor of Prop 11, the California initiative to strip state legislators of the power to draw their own disricts. A citizens' commission would do the job instead.

It stars a firefighter. This is typical--cops, firefighters and teachers have been staples of initiative ads in California. Firefighters are among the most popular public servants. Often, firefighters in ads are there on behalf of unions that have endorsed a measure. That's not the case here, however.

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess. 

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign  for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor. 

Back in the spring, I ran into a consultant working for redistricting reform, the California ballot initiative Prop 11, and he predicted that there might not be a funded campaign against the measure. I scoffed -- I think redistricting reform, while a fine cause, has been oversold and is politically a waste of time. But it looks more and more like he was onto something.

Redistricting measures have a long tradition of failing. But if there's ever going to be a year for such an initiative to pass, this may be it. The latest good news for Prop 11 is that the powerful California Teachers Assn., which has spent big to beat previous redistricting efforts, has decided to stay neutral. (CTA isn't happy with the legislature over the most recent budget, and this smells like payback to Democratic leaders who oppose redistricting). That leaves the no campaign without critical financial and organizational strength.

That said, it's still an uphill battle for redistricting, which has less than 40 percent support in polls. Few initiatives with such little support end up winning. But the ray of hope in those surveys is that the "no" vote is low, too, with a huge undecided. If redistricting supporters can somehow get out their message (a tough thing to do with attention on the worldwide economic crisis and the presidential campaign), they might have a chance at winning over undecided and earning a narrow victory.

A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows three November ballot initiatives -- Prop 4 (parental notification before a minor has an abortion), Prop 8 (ban on same-sex marriage) and Prop 11 (redistricting reform) -- with less than majority support. Prop 11's supporters issued a statement last night saying the poll was good news, as it showed the measure leading 38 percent to 33 percent. I suppose that depends on one's definition of good news. Few measures with less than majoriting support at this point pass. And while the state's dysfunction may give redistricting reform an opportunity, it's bad news that the measure doesn't have more support -- even after a blow-up of the budget process. And with Californians sour on their state, it's not clear that any political figure or interest group has the credibility to convince undecided voters to support the measure in the numbers needed for it to pass. 

The poll suggests that voters may have more interest in broader reforms, including eliminating the requirement of a two-thirds vote in the legislature to pass a budget. California is one of only three states with such a super-majority rule.