Oil

As the debate over Waxman Markey Climate Legislation heats up, something big and scary from experts at 13 government science agencies has appeared: The Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change.

As the name implies, this is an enormous, authoritative report, but it's certainly not the first. What is remarkable about the report is how it reflects a growing trend towards personalizing the impact of climate change. Hence slide five in this powerpoint showing that pollen levels will double by 2075. Message: You (or your kids) will sneeze! Another alarming slide shows that the climate of Illinois could become more like that of East Texas. And the South? Hot...

Inverters are the devices that convert AC power to DC. Solar panels are equipped with them so that the DC current can be integrated into household AC circuits. And homes that store energy from the grid in batteries (more on them in a second) also use inverters. But inverters are one of the tiny components of our energy system that have the potential to change the way we use energy-if only we stopped treating them like little insignificant commodities.

 Kevin Bullis over at MIT's Technology Review made a good catch in an NREL paper that found that poorly functioning inverters actually reduced the power output of one array of solar panels by 40 percent by drawing power at night. (And that power can be scarce with panels to begin with.) And furthermore, if no one remembered to manually reset the inverters, the panels didn't produce power half the time the sun was shining. The NREL paper itself (pdf) mentions that poorly integrated components and shade can reduce the effectiveness of the system by 14-68%, which is a huge range...

Uganda is a landlocked country of 32 million that's a bit smaller than Oregon. GDP: $1100. And, according to this report of a meeting with a representative of the US Department of Energy, may have reserves that "rival" those of Saudi Arabia.

(For reference: Saudi Arabia produces well over 10 million barrels of oil a day and has reserves estimated at 267 billion barrels.)

The DOE expert says Uganda could produce 3.5 million barrels a day, and possibly much more, and then offers US help with environmental and governance issues...

The connection between the Republicans and oil drilling was a cliche long before Sarah Palin lead the "drill baby drill" chants during the election, but it seems to be taking on a life of its own. A recent post in the WSJ's Environmental Capital Blog highlights the Republican candidate for governor of Virginia, Bob McDonnell, who's hitching his political wagon to the drillbit:

"On energy, our opponents will say NO to offshore drilling, NO to clean coal, NO to nuclear, and NO to the new jobs and investment that come with it. When it comes to promoting energy independence: They'll just say NO, we'll just say YES!"...

Oil is up nearly a dollar this morning, making May's $10 rise the biggest since 1999. This is an argument for OPEC's curious ineffectuality: This week they refused to reduce quotas,  admitted that members are cheating, noted that inventories remain ridiculously high--and still the price rose! Here's OPEC Secretary-General El-Badri saying that the rise is based on "sentiment." (He also pulls a lovely Orwell when describing quota cheating as 79% compliance.)...

We've come to expect that the "solutions" to Climate Change will be high tech--floating windmills, underwater generators, and nano solar in the Jules Verne/James Bond tradition--or at least high concept (carbon credit trading). But this week Energy Secretary and Nobel Prize winner Steve Chu is in Europe extolling the benefits of ... white roofs. The concept is simple but the numbers he cites are massive: Making roofs and pavement more reflective could offset 44 billion tons of CO2, or the equivalent of taking all of the world's cars off the road for 11 years. (While these numbers appear huge, there's no mention of the time frame, so they're not comparable to other numbers.) ...

Here we are again, crude still bopping around under $60 and the market still glutty. Where is it coming from? A clue: The Middle Eastern Economic Review reports that OPEC is admitting that its members are cheating on their quotas, releasing probably an extra million barrels of oil a day into the market than the 24.8, they've agreed to.

Meanwhile, the analysts over at Sanford Bernstein have apparently been poking around on Google Earth and have determined that China has been importing an extra 400,000 barrels of oil a day since November and sticking some of that in above ground tanks as their version of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is certainly a better time to buy oil and put it in a reserve than 2003 and 2004, when prices were rising and the US was filling our reserve...

The ambassador to the UN from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) told me recently that every government agency in his country has a sustainability plan out to the year 2030. The most significant part of that policy exercise is the fact they need to develop an economy beyond oil - - because they expect to run out of it by then.

Two weeks ago I visited Bahrain, an island in the middle of the Persian Gulf that is widely regarded as the Switzerland of the Middle East. This amazing little country gets only about 15% of its revenues from oil/gas development, so it too is planning for what comes after the Oil Age. With that in mind, Bahrain has encouraged the expansion of financial institutions (probably a good thing given how many are melting down in the US and Europe these days!), but more remarkable is the manufacturing industries that are blooming in the desert by the aquamarine waters of the Gulf.

Will Bahrain be the next China in terms of being both an economic and manufacturing powerhouse? Because everyone there speaks English (thanks to a British colonial history until 1971), will Bahrain be the next tech center to compete with India? Based on the rapid development going on in the country and a lot of "cool" factor - - I witnessed the Formula One Grand Prix race there and a major yacht race is being staged next - - the answer is yes.

Oh how I love the daffy honesty of Jimmy Carter. I was in fifth or sixth grade when he introduced me to the highly advanced concept of "lust in the heart," later followed by understanding the macroeconomic impact of "wearing a sweater."  (I'm not belittling those concepts--in the long run neither can be ignored.) And it was he who followed Nixon's lead and told the US that we needed to change the way we used energy...

Over the last month or so I've been to several events that suggest that US scientists and government types are starting to seriously game out how disasters in energy security and climate change may unfold, interact, and multiply. At one event, people from various government departments, national labs,  and, um, information gathering agencies sat around tables and tried to play out how, say, black carbon causing ice melt in the Tibetan plateau would interact with the struggle for scarce oil resources, the spread of disease, and the potential for developing countries to leapfrog to new energy technologies.  What would be the first warnings of disaster? How could it be avoided or mitigated if it was too late?...