Major federal tax reform

Trends as a Guide to Tax Reform

June 16, 2008 - 11:17am

Last week, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that life expectancy has gone up, hitting a "record high in 2006 of 78.1 years."

This kind of trend data is relevant to tax reform discussions, but not often highlighted. Tax reform discussions could be better focused if we spent more time looking at how the world has changed since most of our current rules were enacted and how it will likely continue to change.

Several years ago I started gathering data on trends and using it to show where our tax law was outdated or working contrary to a trend, that is - contrary to reality. A few simple examples:

1. Longevity - this is clearly relevant in considering our Social Security system. When Social Security was created in the 1930s, life expectancy was lower than retirement age. That is clearly not the case today.

2. Who lives in poverty - In 1959, 35.2% of people age 65 and older were in poverty. In 1996, that percentage had dropped to 10.8%. (Leatha Lamison-White, Poverty in the United States: 1996, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Table C-2, page C-5). The federal tax law (as well as some state income tax laws) include exemptions and credits for being old. Years ago it may have been appropriate to assume that most elderly needed a tax break, but that is not true today.

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