The biggest direct democracy story of the week -- heck, perhaps the year -- is the Irish referndum this Friday, Oct. 2, on the Lisbon Treaty.

Lisbon, a de facto new constitution for the EU, is long and complex. But for direct democrats, it's groundbreaking in a crucial way: it would establish the world's first trans-national initiative for the EU.

This is a relatively weak initiative power: it's an agenda-setting, or indirect, initiative. Voters can't make laws themselves, as in American states or Switzerland. With one million signatures, voters would be able to petition the European parliament for a vote on particular subjects. (The treaty establishes the power but the details of who this would work have yet to be decided). Advocates say this is an important advance that could build momentum for direct democracy at the federal level in various European countries. More via the Initiative & Referendum Institute Europe.

Polls show Irish voters leaning towards approving the treaty--after voting to reject it last year. Other European countries approved the treaty with a vote of their legislative bodies, but Ireland requires a voter referendum on such matters--thus giving its citizens outsized influence in the debate

California's meltdown has been so all-consuming that it's been awhile since this blog checked in on direct democratic goings-on overseas. So here goes.

IRISH VIEWS SHIFT ON LISBON: The Irish voted down the Lisbon Treaty -- the de facto new constitution for the European Union last year. Now a new poll -- in advance of a likely fall vote on the treaty -- shows growing support in Ireland for the treaty. What's changed? The country's once-strong economy has collapsed.

TAIWANESE REFERENDUM ON CHINA TRADE PACT: The pro-independence opposition in Taiwan announced it would collect signatures for a referendum on a new trade pact signed by the government with China.

NIGER PLEBISCITE: The leader of that African country, a producer of uranium, has dismissed the Parliament and is organizing a referendum on whether to change the constitution to permit him to serve a third term. 

IRAQI REFERENDUM: The 2009 referendum most important to Americans may take place in Iraq.   Sunni parties won a commitment for a public referendum by July 30, 2009 on the new security agreement between the U.S. and the Baghdad government. That agreement calls for full American withdrawal by the end of 2011. A vote by the Iraqi people to reject the agreement could lead to an even earlier withdrawal by the U.S.

POLL: UKRAINIANS WANT VOTE ON NATO MEMBERSHIP: Some 80 percent support a vote on whether to join NATO. The poll is less clear on what Ukrainians would do if they had such a vote.

 GREENLAND INDEPENDENCE: The world's biggest island votes for more independence from Denmark.

BULLYING THE IRISH: It looks like the Irish, who turned down the European Union's Lisbon Treaty, are going to be forced to vote again.

The Irish opposed the ratification of the new Lisbon Treaty for the European Union this spring. Now the government, under heavy European pressure, is considering a second referendum for next year. Why would Ireland, the only country to permit its citizens to vote directly on the treaty, change its mind? The carrot seems to be a promise that Ireland would always retain a commissioner on a major EU body. Now, countries temporarily lose their commissioner as membership rotates.

The Irish voted down the European Union's Lisbon Treaty last month, 53-47. While European officials have called for another vote, a new poll suggests only 24 percent of Irish voters want such a second ballot. And if there were a second ballot, support for the treaty would reach only 38 percent of the voter.

SARKO SAYS IRISH WILL HAVE TO VOTE AGAIN on Lisbon Treaty. The French president -- and EU president for the next six, very long months -- said this yesterday in Paris. He intends to travel to Ireland to instruct the Irish people in the error of their ways next week.

SPAIN SEEKS TO BLOCK BASQUE VOTE: The Spanish government has filed a lawsuit seeking to block a Basque referendum on autonomy that is seen as a step toward independence. The argument is that under Spain's constitutional, only the federal government may authorize a referendum. The Basque law establishing the referendum took effect yesterday, so even before anyone votes, Spain has a constitutional problem on its hands.

LITHUANIAN MPS SEEK REFERENDUM TO BLOCK EU: The European Union has agreed to the closure of a Soviet-era nuclear power plant that provides much of Lithuania's power. But Lithuania's parliament wants to delay that closure by putting a referendum on the national ballot in October.

WALES TO VOTE? Wales, which has some power to govern itself, is discussing whether and how to permit referenda there. The argument is a bit complicated, but so is the United Kingdom.

French president, and new EU president, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced a timetable for moving forward with the Lisbon Treaty, a new reform plan for the European Union that Ireland -- the only country to permit its citizens to vote on ratification -- rejected last month. There weren't many details, but from what Sarko said last week, he won't change the treaty and seems to be counting on bullying the Irish into changing their minds. Sarko is traveling to Ireland next week to begin the arm-twisting. Memo to the people of Ireland: French diplomacy is on the way. Brace yourselves. 

On a related note, the Irish Times has an interesting piece raising the question of whether a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was really necessary under Ireland's constitutional. The notion that such a vote was a constitutional requirement has been reported over and over -- including on this blog -- as fact. But the argument of this new piece is that the treaty doesn't have an impact on Irish sovereignty and thus didn't need to be submitted to the people.

Those who voted no in the June referendum say they didn't have enough information about the Lisbon Treaty and what it would mean for Ireland and the EU, according to the Irish Times. Quintin Oliver, who runs one of Europe's top firms for referenda campaigns, Strategem in Northern Ireland, says here that the yes campaign "didn't sell the future under the Treaty in a positive, simple, coherent, lucid way. They confused it and they looked backwards. They suggested that gratitude to Europe would be enough to secure a 'yes' vote, and that was not the right way." Oliver also argues that the "yes" side did do the extensive focus group and survey work that successful ballot measure campaigns require, whatever their subject or location.

If an Irish butterfly flaps its wings, does it start a storm in Austria? Apparently so. Direct democracy is so powerful that a vote in one country can topple governments in others. Austria's coalition government collapsed today, a victim -- at least in part -- of last month's Irish "no" vote on a referendum over the Lisbon Treaty, a back-door new constitution for the European Union.

What's the link? After Ireland, the only one of the 27 EU countries to permit a public referendum on the treaty, voted it down, Austrian Prime Minister Alfred Gusenbauer said that future EU treaties should be subject to referenda there in Austria. The right of center Austrian People's Party, which was part of the Social Democrat Gusenbauer's governing coalition, opposes such referenda and decided -- for this and other reasons -- to leave the government.

We Irish so often are.... This column from the Guardian makes a good point. By attacking the irish vote against the Lisbon Treaty and so quickly demanding a new referendum, European Unoin leaders probably have hardended Irish attitudes against the treaty, which represents a backdoor way to impose a new constitution in Europe. A better approach would be to respond to Irish concerns, amend the treaty, and then, humbly, try again.