Irish Referendum

The Irish opposed the ratification of the new Lisbon Treaty for the European Union this spring. Now the government, under heavy European pressure, is considering a second referendum for next year. Why would Ireland, the only country to permit its citizens to vote directly on the treaty, change its mind? The carrot seems to be a promise that Ireland would always retain a commissioner on a major EU body. Now, countries temporarily lose their commissioner as membership rotates.

Those who voted no in the June referendum say they didn't have enough information about the Lisbon Treaty and what it would mean for Ireland and the EU, according to the Irish Times. Quintin Oliver, who runs one of Europe's top firms for referenda campaigns, Strategem in Northern Ireland, says here that the yes campaign "didn't sell the future under the Treaty in a positive, simple, coherent, lucid way. They confused it and they looked backwards. They suggested that gratitude to Europe would be enough to secure a 'yes' vote, and that was not the right way." Oliver also argues that the "yes" side did do the extensive focus group and survey work that successful ballot measure campaigns require, whatever their subject or location.

If an Irish butterfly flaps its wings, does it start a storm in Austria? Apparently so. Direct democracy is so powerful that a vote in one country can topple governments in others. Austria's coalition government collapsed today, a victim -- at least in part -- of last month's Irish "no" vote on a referendum over the Lisbon Treaty, a back-door new constitution for the European Union.

What's the link? After Ireland, the only one of the 27 EU countries to permit a public referendum on the treaty, voted it down, Austrian Prime Minister Alfred Gusenbauer said that future EU treaties should be subject to referenda there in Austria. The right of center Austrian People's Party, which was part of the Social Democrat Gusenbauer's governing coalition, opposes such referenda and decided -- for this and other reasons -- to leave the government.

That's the question posed by the Irish Times, after the defeat of the LIsbon Treaty in a referendum late this week. It's a big blow to the Irish government, which endorsed it, and to the European Union. It's not at all clear what comes next for the EU. Voters have no rejected a constitution and, in the only one of the 27 countries to permit voters to cast ballots, a treaty to replace the new, failed constitution.

Ironically, the defeat of the Irish referendum will  -- at the same time -- limit and boost direct democracy in Europe. The treaty would have provided for the first transnational referenda -- that is, a plebiscite across all the EU countries. Those hopes seem dashed now. But with the Irish rejecting the treaty, Euroskeptics across the continent now have a strong argument for demanding referenda on the treaty in their own countries. The pressure on the UK's politically lead-footed prime minster, Gordon Brown, to permit a vote is likely to grow.

Today, the eve of the Irish vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Irish broadcasters honor tradition by going silent on referendum news for the day. My kingdom for a new American tradition embraced by cable news.