Iraq

IRAQI REFERENDUM: The 2009 referendum most important to Americans may take place in Iraq.   Sunni parties won a commitment for a public referendum by July 30, 2009 on the new security agreement between the U.S. and the Baghdad government. That agreement calls for full American withdrawal by the end of 2011. A vote by the Iraqi people to reject the agreement could lead to an even earlier withdrawal by the U.S.

POLL: UKRAINIANS WANT VOTE ON NATO MEMBERSHIP: Some 80 percent support a vote on whether to join NATO. The poll is less clear on what Ukrainians would do if they had such a vote.

 GREENLAND INDEPENDENCE: The world's biggest island votes for more independence from Denmark.

BULLYING THE IRISH: It looks like the Irish, who turned down the European Union's Lisbon Treaty, are going to be forced to vote again.

iStockAnalyst (08/01) features Steve Clemons discussing Obama's need for a degree of moral flexibility.
Washington Independent (07/30) quotes Peter Bergen on the need for more troops in Afghanistan.
Foreign Policy (07/30) cites Daniel Levy on potential candidates to lead Kadima after Olmert's resignation.
The Window (07/19) talks with Parag Khanna on the U.S.' relationship with the Kurdish Regional Government.

The Economist (07/17) quotes Peter Bergen on Al Qaeda's self destructive tendencies.
iStock Analyst (07/17) features Steve Clemons arguing against claims of success in Iraq.
The New York Observer (07/17) reviews Michael Cohen's new book, Live from the Campaign Trail.
The Moderate Voice (07/16) cites Daniel Levy on evolving aspects of the Israeli Palestinian divide.
The Newshour with Jim Lehrer (07/16) interviews Daniel Levy on Israel's controversial trade with Hamas.
Financial Times (07/16) quotes Steve Clemons on the Cheney's loss of influence in the Bush Administration.
Policy Innovations (07/14) features Flynt Leverett discussing the rise of China on global business and security.

Might the Bush administration's secretive quest to complete the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) in Iraq trigger political reconciliation? In a roundabout way, the  administration's strategic myopia in pursuing the SOFA has created a political rethink in Iraq that might just create a sustainable framework for national accommodation.

That's because the ill-conceived SOFA/SFA has been met with fierce opposition by a number of Iraqi political groups. In a recent Boston Globe article, New America's Daniel Levy argues this might not be such a bad thing. The unintended consequence of America's over-reach is a new Iraqi nationalist consensus that has brought Sunni, Shi'ite, and secular Iraqi parties together.

This nascent coalition could be the key to building a sustainable political culture, preserving the country's territorial integrity, and curbing excessive Iranian interference. At a minimum, it would stem the excesses of an American regional strategy built around a heavy and sustained military presence.

I'm still looking for what is new and more sophisticated about Barack Obama's New York Times opinion article, My Plan For Iraq. Maybe the answer is that there is little new here, except for the news hook provided by the Maliki government.

Steve Clemons has a good overall assessment of the article at The Washington Note. I'm going to focus on a few items I think are essential that I want Senator Obama to address.

The overall problem I see with this statement of Iraq policy is that it is too focused on the troop issue, not enough on the twisted politics of the Persian Gulf. Clausewitz is still right: war is the extension of politics by other means. In order to really get the troops out of Iraq, the next president will have to fundamentally change the politics of Iraq and of the region. I just do not see Senator Obama really willing to go there, publicly. That is why his plan requires such a potentially large follow-on force.

The Forward reports on plans for a municipal ballot initiative in Seattle that would require city pension funds to divest from companies that do business in Israel or profit from the Iraq war. The specific investments being targeted involve Halliburton (the military contractor doing big business in Iraq) and Caterpillar (which sells a lot of bulldozers in Israel). Whatever your views on Israel and Iraq, this initiative should concern you. Do voters really want to use their city to make foreign policy statements? (Yes, San Francisco, you can put your hand down now). You may like the foreign policy now, but you may not like the future foreign policy. And cities have enough to worry about in setting local policy. Second, and more significant, turning pension funds into instruments of policy is a high-risk idea with potentially disastrous consequences for taxpayers. American cities have such a problem with unfunded pension liabilities that such funds would do well to focus exclusively on maximizing returns.

The Associated Press (05/ 13) quotes Daniel Levy on the state of the Middle East peace process.
Foreign Policy in Focus (05/12) cites William Hartung on lessons learned in the Iraq War.
The New York Observer (05/12) mentions Parag Khanna in a discussion of the state of US hegemony.
World Politics Review (05/12) cites Flynt Leverett on China-US tensions.
US News (05/09) quotes Steve Clemons on Hillary Clinton's fading political future.

US News & World Report (04/11) asks Sherle Schwenninger about economic policy and the U.S. government.
The National Interest (04/10) quotes Steve Clemons on the subtlety of realist politics.
Bloomberg (03/24) quotes William Hartung on the benefits to contractors in Iraq.

Tonight, Frontline airs Part II of Bush's War on PBS. With interviews from our own Steve Coll and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, the show promises the most in-depth look at the decisions that brought us to the five year anniversary of the invasion. Click on the image below to view Part I, available online now.

The greater Middle East contains only six percent of the world's population but can keep the United States distracted from the bigger strategic issues: making globalization, the rise of Asia, and the American economy stable and sustainable, for instance. Writing in the American Prospect, Daniel Levy lays out a regional to-do list for the next president of the United States.

By Daniel Levy, New America Foundation

The American Prospect | April 2008

Listen carefully when a new president is inaugurated next January for the sigh of relief coming from most of those Middle Easterners whom President Bush embraced as allies. Conversely, Bush’s rivals in the region are likely to tune in to the occasion in a disgruntled mood. For them the Bush years have been good for business. The menu of grievances on which they’ve fed has become a veritable feast. Opposition to American designs in the region -- deployed with different emphases and with different goals by al-Qaeda, Iran, Hamas, Syria, and Hezbollah, to name but a few -- has been an easy sell and has won countless new adherents.