Initiative

The fear is that a big turnout among African-American and Latino voters for Obama might give Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, a crucial boost. Some polling shows broader support for Prop 8 among such voters than in the electorate as a whole. The dynamic also might boost Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before an abortion is performed on a minor.

Watching TV in California these days is enough to make you physically ill. The problem? The ads for and against Prop 2, the initiative to regulate farm animal confinement. The Yes ads, produced by the Humane Society of the United States (perhaps the leading practitioner and defender of ballot initiative campaigns in the country), have -- in a small box on the screen (the full screen was deemed too disturbing for viewers) -- video of farm animals in distress. The no campaign warns about salmonella and other diseases if Prop 2 passes and animals are free to walk around. The yes campaign has responded to this by saying that the current use of caged animals actually contributes to salmonella. So, both sides are talking about salmonella.

An anti-growth initiative in Redwood City, Calif., has become a $2 million campaign, the Mercury News reports. The initiative is a particularly severe version of a type embraced by environmentalists across the West. To prevent any new development, the initiative requires a vote of the people -- and a supermajority vote, or two-thirds of the people, to be precise -- before any open land is developed. Effectively, such measures keep all but the most determined developers out of a city in which they're in effect.

This is a dangerous game. California needs growth and density, particularly in its urban core and established suburbs. By making it harder to grow in places like Redwood City, environmentalists may end up promoting sprawl.

The Bush administration has become more aggressive about attempting to influence initiative campaigns. The latest news comes from Washington state, where top officials of the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Transit Administration, in a letter, suggest an initiative to improve traffic flow would cost the state federal money. More here via the Seattle Times.

The LA Times says this is nearly twice as much as was spent on all previous same-sex marriage ballot measures nationwide, combined. Despite this, both campaigns are sending constant emails suggesting they are out of money. It's enough to make one wonder about financial controls in these campaigns. If you can't get your message out for $30 million, even in California, something is wrong.

This piece on the California initiative on farm animal confinement had been anticipated -- the Humane Society clearly gave the writer, Maggie Jones, considerable access -- but there's nothing new in it. It does provide a fair look at both sides of the issue, with some historical context.

The Internet is hot this afternoon with angry right-wingers convinced that the following ballot initiative -- just filed but not even ready for circulation -- is part of Gov. Schwarzenegger's secret plan for next year's special election. The initiative, sponsored by former Gov. Gray Davis budget director Steve Peace, would end partisan registration and partisan elections in California. That's right. Imagine there are no parties, no heaven either.

This has no chance of passing in our partisan age, or perhaps any age. Democrats would oppose it too. And if Schwarzenegger really is behind it, it's likely little more than a threat intended to force partisans on both sides to make deals with him. And I'm not sure it would be very effective even as such a tool. The fact that conservative Republicans see it as a threat is another example of the incredible weakness -- and related paranoia -- of the right in California.

I'm beginning to fear that opponents of Prop 8 -- that is, supporters of same-sex marriage -- are in the process of seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. There have been confusing ads, in which the opposition to Prop 8, an initiative to ban same-sex marriage, appears to be defending Prop 8. And there has been the failure to have the many religious leaders who support same-sex marriage -- and are marrying couples -- define such marriages as not only consistent with faith, but also essential to a full relationship with God. Yes, many gay people love God  too and want to participate with the person they love in the sacred rite of marriage. Voters, particularly religious voters, ought to hear that perspective.

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess. 

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign  for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor.