Inflation

A 0.2% overall decline in April retail sales masked divergent patterns in U.S. consumer spending. While auto spending decreased by 2.8%, spending on non-auto goods actually rose by 0.5%, a larger than expected increase. With consumer spending accounting for over 70% of the U.S. economy, some see this resiliency as a sign the economy may be closer to recovery than previously thought. Others say it's a statistical blip and expect continued contraction throughout 2008 as gas prices and inflation increase.

Snapshot asks, will high gas prices and weak auto sales further drag down consumers in 2008?

Economists concerned anout rising oil and food prices can add another item to their list of fears, Chinese wage growth. In 2007, unit labor costs increased for the sixth consecutive year while the price of Chinese imports to the U.S. surged by 4%. With a global economy that has become reliant upon inexpensive Chinese manufactures, the question of whether Chinese wage inflation is transitory or part of a long term structural change is of great importance.

Snapshot asks, will wage growth add to China's inflationary threat?

Bureau of Labor Statistics - U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
New York Times - Asian Inflation Begins to Sting
China Daily - China's 'Demographic Dividend' to End in 2010
Goldman Sachs - Globalization and Disinflation: Can Anyone Else ' Do a China'?
Business Week - How Rising Wages are Changing the Game in China

Rioting has broken out in Egypt, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, and Ethiopia and 33 more countries around the world may face instability due to rising food prices. During IMF/World Bank meetings last week, leaders cited the U.S. demand for bio fuels as a major reason for high grain prices. Throughout the weeklong meetings, World Bank President Robert Zoellick repeated the need for more food assistance to poor countries. To date, the United Nations has only received half of the $500 million it said it needed to sustain assistance through the World Food Program.

Snapshot asks, will cutting the U.S. demand for bio fuels sufficiently curb inflation in food prices?

World Bank - Rising food prices: policy options and World Bank Response
Wall Street Journal - Food Inflation, Riots Spark Worries for World Leaders
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - Fighting Food Inflation through Sustainable Investment
Time - The Clean Energy Scam

The falling dollar and market expectations of further Fed rate cuts next Wednesday puts inflationary pressure on oil exporting nations in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) whose currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar. (Kuwait dropped its peg to the dollar in March of 2007 and remains the only GCC that does not peg its currency.) Inflationary pressure in the countries that retain their pegs is two fold: One, countries are forced to accept easing U.S. monetary policy. Two, rising commodity prices, in part due to a falling dollar, cause further inflation.

Snapshot asks, will other GCC states drop their dollar pegs?

Financial Times - Plummeting dollar a big headache for pegged currencies
Oxford Business Group - Oman and Inflation
Jadwa Investment Group - Saudi Arabia The Inflation Alleviation Plan
National Bank of Dubai - Should GCC Countries Opt for Inflation Targeting

China’s inflation surged 8.7% in February on the back of food prices, which rose 23%. Snowstorms crippled transportation networks and damaged crops, temporary adding to inflation. But some believe food inflation will bleed into other sectors. The instability that results from this type of broad-based inflation is at the forefront of the leadership's concern. At the National People's Congress last week, Premier Wen Jiabao announced inflation as the first priority of the central government.

Snapshot asks, does China have a temporary problem with food inflation or will inflation spread to other sectors of the economy?

Bloomberg - China's Inflation Surges to 8.7% as Food Prices Soar
Kenneth Rogoff - China may yet be economy to lose sleep over
New York Time - China to Focus on Reducing Inflation, Prime Minister Says
Caijing - Taming Inflation
Societe Generale - China’s policy challenges come to the fore at the National People’s Congress

Higher than average inflation in the United States is but a fraction of the inflationary pressures that emerging markets currently face. This week, Snapshot will investigate inflationary pressure from various regions around the world.

In many countries large foreign exchange reserves are putting enormous pressure on monetary growth, which many economists believe is primary cause of inflation. In other countries, it appears rising global food and energy prices are increasing prices.

Snapshot asks, what is the leading cause of inflation, monetary growth or an increase in global demand?

Ben Bernanke said this morning that the Federal Reserve “will act in a timely manner as needed” to keep the economy growing, implying more interest rate cuts in March. In today's speech before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke said the threat of core inflation and overall inflation has risen, but that growth and stability are now the immediate priorities.

Snapshot asks, will the Federal Reserve make inflation an equal priority again? Is recent Fed policy emblematic of a global move away from inflation targeting?

The threat of a recession occurring at the same time as higher than expected inflation raises concerns about stagflation, a combination of inflation and stagnant growth not seen since the 1970s. Minutes from the January Open Market Committee meeting indicate the Fed will raise rates quickly to avoid inflationary pressures when concerns over slow growth subside. Despite inflationary pressure, investors predict the Fed will ease rates 50 basis points during their next meeting on March 18th.

Snapshot asks, are we or will we experience stagflation?