Gay Marriage

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

The fear is that a big turnout among African-American and Latino voters for Obama might give Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, a crucial boost. Some polling shows broader support for Prop 8 among such voters than in the electorate as a whole. The dynamic also might boost Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before an abortion is performed on a minor.

I just received a recorded message call opposing Prop 8, the California ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage. The recorded voice belonged to Bonnie Shatun of the California Teachers Assn. She cited the endorsements for the No on 8 position by U.S. Sen Dianne Feinstein and by the League of Women Voters. Such calls suggest that women, perhaps moderate women, are a focus of the outreach of opponents of Prop 8.  The call is also well-timed, and suggests a more organized campaign against Prop 8 than we saw a few months ago.. A new ad by Feinstein against Prop 8 has just gone up. More on that to come.

I understand why the No on 8 campaign is making such an issue of the Mormon church's support for Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. I'm reliably told that polling shows there's an opportunity for the campaign here. The church is not popular, and has gone to great lengths to support the campaign institutionally, with call centers, video conferences, and money. Mormons are providing much of the money and volunteer support for the initiative. To supporters of same-sex marriage, this feels like a deeply unfair intrusion by the church. What gives the church the right to reach into California politics and write discrimination into the state constitution? And a church with a history of polygamy makes a tempting political target.

For all the attention that billionaires Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman have received as potential Republican candidates for governor in 2010, former Congressman Tom Campbell is the frontrunner in the polls I've seen. And as Poizner and Whitman attempt to build support on the right, Campbell is emphasizing his libertarian beliefs, writing on a blog affiliated with Reason that he opposes Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. He makes a very clear, conservative case for opposing Prop 8. In fact, Campbell's argument is far better than anything I've heard from the No on 8 campaign itself. How about making a TV ad, Tom?

I'm beginning to fear that opponents of Prop 8 -- that is, supporters of same-sex marriage -- are in the process of seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. There have been confusing ads, in which the opposition to Prop 8, an initiative to ban same-sex marriage, appears to be defending Prop 8. And there has been the failure to have the many religious leaders who support same-sex marriage -- and are marrying couples -- define such marriages as not only consistent with faith, but also essential to a full relationship with God. Yes, many gay people love God  too and want to participate with the person they love in the sacred rite of marriage. Voters, particularly religious voters, ought to hear that perspective.

This summer, opponents of Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, pushed a boycott of businesses that gave to the Yes on 8 campaign. At the time, supporters of the initiative were outraged. Now those supporters are adopting a version of the same game, sending a letter to donors to the No on 8 demanding they give to the yes side -- or receive negative publicity as "opponents of traditional marriage." And of course, the No on 8 side is outraged, calling this "blackmail."

It's always ugly when people or businesses face economic retaliation for their political views. But there's nothing illegal or wrong with the tactics. Your blogger's suggestion, to both sides: Boycott and threaten away. It won't make any difference in the result. This is a close race that should come down to turnout.

The bid for a constitutional convention in Connecticut has become a platform for those who want to reverse a recent court ruling there making same-sex marriage legal. That brings to four the number of states where voters are making judgments on same-sex marriage in the November elections. More details via Stateline.org.

This story from today's Sacramento Bee shows the success that Prop 8 and its campaign consultant, Frank Schubert have had in reframing the question posed by the initiative to ban same-sex marriage. One would think the central question of a campaign to ban such marriages would be the simple one of whether such couples deserve the legal recognition of marriage. But in California, that question seems to be a political loser for those who support the ban. So, faced with a political problem, opponents of same-sex marriage have attempted to expand the question by asking what legal same-sex marriage might mean for other parts of society.

The ballot initiative process includes professional signature gatherers, professional pollsters, professional consultants, professional initiative drafters and professional direct mail folks. Today the LA Times has a report on a new direct democracy professional: those who pray and fast as a full-time occupation. In a long but worth-its-length story this morning, the paper reports on people in La Mesa, California, who have been praying since last month (apparently with few breaks and without departing the church) for Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage.