Field Poll

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

A new Field Poll shows that Prop 8, the California ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage, is in deep trouble. It has just 38 percent support of likely voters in the poll; 55 percent were opposed. The poll finds that the amended summary of the measure, emphasizing that the measure would eliminate a right, is a factor in the movement against the initiative.

And the big public campaign against the measure is just beginning; Brad Pitt announced a $100,000 donation to defeat Prop 8 yesterday, locking up the all important Thelma and Louise vote. I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of measures I've seen rebound from such polling to pass. It appears that same-sex marriage will remain a right in California. The one dark cloud on the horizon is: if opponents of same-sex marriage lose this time in California, will they return to the ballot and try again?

Overwhelming majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents don't want a recall. But the Field Poll is not good news for the governor. He's down to 38 percent job approval, with 70 percent of state voters saying California is on the wrong track. (Who are the 22 percent who think we're on the right track?). And both of his current options -- signing a bad budget, or issuing a veto that could prolong the stalemate -- are unlikely to help his popularity.

If I were Schwarzenegger, I'd want to face the recall vote. The polling shows he's stuck. Unpopular, but not a big enough threat to anyone politically for voters to care about the recall. There's an adjective that describes a politician in this predicament. The word is "irrelevant." Schwarzenegger should pray that the guards go through with the recall--it would give him a chance to make his case for reform again, and to renew his political capital.

Frank Schubert, the longtime political consultant and initiative expert who is managing the Prop 8 (ban on gay marriage) campaign in California, has an interesting bit of spin in response to the Field Poll. He notes that the numbers have moved -- ever so slightly -- in the direction of the initiaitve since a previous survey. (One note: the movement is within the poll's margin of error). He also offers an interesting historical tidbit: back in 2002, the Field Poll significantly underestimated support for Prop 22, the successful 2000 initiative that added a ban on gay marriage into state law. It was Prop 22 that was overturned by the California Supreme Court in May. The new initiative would place a ban on gay marriage in the state constitution.

No (which is the pro-gay marriage side of Prop 8) had 51 percent and yes had 42 percent in the poll, the results of which are here. While that may seem close, it's very good news for those who support same sex marriage. In ballot measure campaigns, most undecided people break no, and it's much more common for the "no" side to make gains as a campaign progresses. One rule of thumb is that an initiative without at least 60 percent support in the early stages is by definition an initiative in trouble.