Economic Growth

If you were not one of the 2 million people watching the inauguration on the Mall in Washington, you could watch the spectacle on any number of television channels. Flipping between ABC, CBS, NBC and PBS would have yielded different commentary but largely the same mood: euphoria, awe at the magnitude of electing the first African-American president, and somber urgency about what confronts our financial system and the world. Yet, even as Obama warned of a difficult road, the crowds were wildly enthusiastic, and millions were moved. Main Street has turned a corner.

But if you had turned on CNBC, you would have seen a different world. Wall Street was in free-fall, with the worst day for bank stocks ever...

Each morning, New America's Next Social Contract Initiative scans the leading media outlets for must-read analysis on the economic crisis and recovery efforts. Today's highlights include:

Housing Starts Decline to Record Low
Calculated Risk, http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/, 16 December 2008
Total housing starts were at 625 thousand (SAAR) in November, by far the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959.

Last night, I was one among 15 progressive bloggers invited to an informal and intimate meeting with President Bill Clinton to discuss the 2008 Clinton Global Initiative, the annual massive convening of world leaders, celebs, corporate executives and progressive NGO activists to make commitments to solve some of the world’s greatest challenges. Told the meeting would last 30 minutes and to limit our questions (“if there is time for any”) to this year’s CGI commitment areas, I wasn’t expecting much more than fluffy rhetoric and quick sound bites on each of this year’s issues -- education, energy and climate change, global health and poverty alleviation.  But, President Clinton took his first question early -- “Will the financial turmoil in the United States be a distraction from efforts to advance CGI commitments?” Indeed.  This question ended up dominating an hour-long discussion of the causes and effects of the current financial crisis, and what needs to be done about it. 

Senior executives from the world's largest investment banks recently released a report suggesting new regulations of global credit markets. On Wall Street, there is a widespread loss of faith that the financial system can adequately assess and price risk. The report proposes stringent standards within banks for reporting the value of complex securities on balance sheets and recommends the creation of a market clearinghouse to allow quick exchange and valuation of such investments.

Snapshot asks, are these regulations cosmetic and an attempt to fend of heavy government regulation?

Financial Times - US banks urge sweeping credit market reform
Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group - Official Report

Central banks in three of the world's largest economies, the U.S., U.K., and the Eurozone, are set to decide this week whether to raise lending rates. All three economies are flirting with recession but central banks fear that lowering rates would stoke inflation. Most analysts expect the three banks will hold rates steady until further signals that inflation is cyclical. Second quarter growth in the U.S. was a sluggish 1.9%, despite the fiscal stimulus package. Meanwhile, June consumer prices rose at the fastest rate in 25 years.

Snapshot asks, in the second half of 2008, will growth or inflation dominate central banks' interest rate policy?

Associated Press -Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady Amid Crosscurrents
Market Watch - Dollar Flat as Traders Eye Central Banks
Bloomberg - Rolling Recessions Bring Paralysis to Bernanke, King, Trichet

Last month I visited Walmart's annual sustainable packaging conference in Bentonville, Arkansas. I learned that the first such meeting took place in a conference room in Walmart's headquarters just three years ago and 50 people attended. The 2008 version needed a massive convention center and was bursting at the seams with suppliers, shippers, and buyers of eco-friendly packaging. You can see where this trend is going.

So what does Walmart know that the rest of the world may still be trying to understand? CEO Lee Scott reportedly told his employees and suppliers alike to reduce wasteful, non-recyclable packaging, because Walmart was paying for waste twice - - once when the package came in the door, and once when they paid someone to haul it away from the back of the stores. Walmart saw the opportunity to benefit the environment and their bottom line at the same time.

But how does the world's largest retailer cut the waste from so many products? They computerized a scorecard, evaluating packaging on a variety of sustainability metrics that flow all the way back down the supply chain. Vendors get a score for the packaging of each item and are then automatically directed to suppliers of products that are more sustainable any time the packaging comes up short.

Walmart took a simple problem - - but a massive one - - and created a clever, self-perpetuating solution. Bottom line? Less waste, more recyclable content (that Walmart now separates and recycles at a profit), better economics, better environment.

The murky state of the U.S. economy became more mixed as new figures from the Institute for Supply Management showed overall manufacturing activity continued to shrink throughout April, but at a much smaller rate than expected. New orders for manufactured goods also jumped 1.1 percent, compared to a predicted .1 percent decline, as a weak dollar and strong growth in the developing world boosted exports. While housing and services continue to decline, manufacturing is proving resilient.

Snapshot asks, will slowing global growth crimp manufacturing's nascent recovery?

Financial Times - US factory orders continue to rise
London Stock Exchange - US Manufacturing Sector Down Less than Anticipated
Bloomberg - U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Shrank Less Than Forecast in May
Financial Times - Cheap U.S. Exports Boost Manufacturing

Housing prices continued their downward slide in April with a monthly decrease of 2.2%, a decline of 14.4% from last year's levels. In an unexpected twist, monthly home sales actually rose by 3.3%. Some optimists see this as an indication that the market is nearing its bottom and beginning to work its way through a massive glut of unsold homes as sellers cut their overvalued asking prices and buyers open their wallets to bargains. Others point to worsening consumer confidence and tighter lending requirements as evidence that April's sales figures were a statistical blip in a market that has much further to fall.

Snapshot asks, to what degree will further credit turmoil stop buyers from clearing the housing market?

Wall Street Journal - Home Sales Rise in Hard-Hit Areas
Bloomberg.com - U.S. Home-Price Index Fell 14.4% in March
Washington Post - Existing Home Sales Rise as Prices Plummet
New York Times - Home sales post unexpected April increase
Yahoo News - Home sales unexpectedly rise in April

A 0.2% overall decline in April retail sales masked divergent patterns in U.S. consumer spending. While auto spending decreased by 2.8%, spending on non-auto goods actually rose by 0.5%, a larger than expected increase. With consumer spending accounting for over 70% of the U.S. economy, some see this resiliency as a sign the economy may be closer to recovery than previously thought. Others say it's a statistical blip and expect continued contraction throughout 2008 as gas prices and inflation increase.

Snapshot asks, will high gas prices and weak auto sales further drag down consumers in 2008?

Pacific Daily News (05/07) analyzes Parag Khanna's hypothesis of the decline of U.S. hegemony.
US News (05/06) quotes Sherle Schwenninger on the cost of doing business in the U.S.
AFP (05/06) cites Steve Clemons discussing the negative impact of Clinton's comments on Iran.
Hard News (05/06) discusses Peter Bergen's research on the link between education and terrorist recruitment.
The People's Daily (04/25) quotes Steve Clemons arguing against a boycott of the Beijing Games.