Economic Growth

The Conference Board, a non-profit business management research organization, today released its widely-watched Leading Economic Index (LEI) data for the month of September. The index, which gauges the national economic outlook for the next three to six months, rose 1.0 percent in September, beating out economists' forecasts of 0.8 percent and constituting the sixth consecutive monthly gain...

We'll have much more on yesterday's Bernard Schwartz Economic Growth Symposium, "The Jobs Deficit," in the days to come (in the meantime, photos and video of the panels and Jared Bernstein's keynote address are available here). But one idea that was much-discussed at the symposium, and has been getting a lot of play recently in the national media, is Timothy Bartik's proposal for a job creation tax credit...

On Wednesday, Attorney General Eric Holder and Education Secretary Arne Duncan spoke in Chicago about youth violence following the shocking video-taped incident of a student being beaten outside of Fenger High School on the south side.

Holder spoke about emergency measures to provide more safety including, "metal detectors, locks, surveillance systems and other equipment to help deter crime. These are first steps, and we will do more."...

Over the past few days, the commentariat has been abuzz with advice for President Obama about how to deal with the nation's unprecedented unemployment and underemployment crisis. With the official unemployment rate now standing at 9.8%--and the effective unemployment rate nearly double that--perhaps the president needs all the help he can get.

A variety of proposals are making the rounds, with opinion divided over how best to stimulate job creation. Should government subsidize new hires through tax incentives? Is the administration pursuing a de facto "weak dollar" policy to bolster American exports and manufacturing? What about public investment and infrastructure spending?...

Last month, we reported that the Chicago Fed's Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) rose in July for the first time in 12 months. That party didn't last long, however. The Midwest's factories renewed their decline in August, driven by shaky consumer confidence, a worsening labor market, and, in particular, the end of ARRA's "cash for clunkers" program...

The leaders of the G-20 group of major economies are meeting in Pittsburgh today, and the heads of state have a busy and contentious agenda. The debate over rebalancing the global economy, although crucial in our estimation, has driven a wedge between the U.S. and some of its allies and threatens to derail other parts of the program.

Atop President Obama's list of priorities in Pittsburgh is agreeing on a framework for mitigating the global imbalances that were in large part responsible for last year's financial crisis. Writes Justin Fox in Time's Curious Capitalist blog...

It was largely lost among coverage of the U.N. General Assembly, partisan Paterson politics, and a Letterman appearance. But President Obama's remarks Monday at Hudson Valley Community College in Troy, NY shed some light on the administration's plans for reviving American innovation and laying the groundwork for job creation and sustainable growth in the 21st century.

The New America Foundation's third Bernard Schwartz Economic Growth Symposium on October 20 (details forthcoming) will consider the nation's unemployment crisis and propose strategies for high-quality job creation. The president got a head start on us, however, by addressing the tricky gambit his administration faces: how to transition from policies that support short-term recovery to policies that promote long-term prosperity?...

Yesterday the Flow of Funds data was released by the Federal Reserve and it shows little reduction of debt held by U.S. households.

Just a few days ago, we held a conference that focused on the private sector debt overhang, and from the looks of things we could hold the same conference at the end of the year or even in a year or two. Despite the nearly 60% equity rally and the $2 trillion increase in household wealth, households are still carrying a tremendous amount of debt...

Ben Bernanke thinks the recession is "likely over," and newly-released data on inflation and industrial production in August seem to corroborate his claims. Don't pop the champagne yet, however, because year-over-year trends reveal the size of the hole from which the U.S. economy must now dig itself.

First, inflation: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis. As CNN Money notes, the gain outpaced the estimates of most economists, who expected a 0.3 percent rise in price levels...

That's the line from our fellow New Americans at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), who picked up on our discussion last week of the news that the U.S. fell to number two (behind Switzerland) in the latest World Economic Forum Global Competitveness Report.

Our commentary focused on U.S. competitive disadvantages in areas such as infrastructure, basic education and health, and certain aspects of the labor market. By contrast, CRFB cites the nation's fiscal state as the most pressing problem:...